294
FXUS64 KLUB 171101
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
601 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 557 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

 - Hot and generally dry weather continues through midweek.

 - Temperatures are likely to reach or exceed 105 degrees off the
   Caprock Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Monday night)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Ridging aloft kept conditions dry across the South Plains region
Sunday evening, and this trend is generally expected to continue as
we begin a new work week. Overnight convection well to our north
over the central TX Panhandle will again send an outflow boundary
southward into our area by Monday morning, with the boundary progged
to become more diffuse as it lifts northward Monday afternoon. Storm
chances will remain quite low on Monday as continued large scale
subsidence is expected to prevent most if not all robust convective
development locally. The one exception could be the SE TX Panhandle
which may see an isolated storm or two given closer proximity to the
belt of midlevel moisture and modest upslope flow near the edge of
the Caprock. Even so,the large majority of the forecast area is
expected to remain dry on Monday. In terms of temperatures, very
similar conditions compared to the past couple of days are expected
given the center of the upper ridge remaining just to our east.
Highs will range from the mid to upper 90s on the Caprock, with
low 100s expected once again east of the escarpment.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The upper level ridge will translate westward during the middle of
the week, resulting in another warm up and continuation of largely
dry weather across West TX. Highs Tue-Wed are expected to be near
100 over the South Plains and SW TX Panhandle, and NBM probs
highlight a 60-80% chance of temperatures reaching or exceeding heat
advisory criteria of 105 degrees off the Caprock both days.
Ridging aloft shifts farther westward Thursday through the end of
the week, but most model solutions still favor highs remaining
above normal. Despite a series of more progressive upper shortwaves
moving over the central/northern plains, at the moment it appears
quite unlikely that any impactful cold front will make it anywhere
near our area late in the week with ensemble consensus still
overwhelmingly favoring above normal temperatures continuing into
the weekend. However, the positioning of the ridge over the Four
Corners will result in at least some degree of northwest flow
aloft over our area which results in low PoPs each evening from
Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions and mostly clear skies persist through the period.
A weak wind shift has moved through the terminals as of 11z,
resulting in light northerly winds to start the period. This will
be relatively short-lived though, with southerly winds
redeveloping by midday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...24