Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
473 FXUS64 KLUB 091722 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1222 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025 - A chance of thunderstorms exists this afternoon and early evening mainly NW of a Childress to Morton line. Some strong to possibility severe wind gusts are possible along with small hail. - Another chance for rain returns to the area for Saturday and Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025 Generalized ridging extends along the spine of the Rockies ahead of the next storm system presently coming ashore the Oregon Coast. A ribbon of modest jet-level winds will extend across northern NM into the TX Panhandle which is too weak to give much of a signal on WV imagery. Over the next 24 hours, we`ll see this feature dig into NORCAL by Wednesday evening resulting in a jet streak situated from SOCAL into the Wasatch Range. Ridging at H5 will be the story of the day in this part of the country and the anticyclonic curvature on the northern periphery of the feature. In this region, were some weak broad-scale lift exists, we`ll see an opportunity for afternoon and early evening thunderstorms initially in the northwestern zones this afternoon then spreading east/southeastward into the evening. Indications are that activity should largely wane after 00Z/Wed but some showers could linger. Elevated CAPE above inverted-V profiles suggest an opportunity for ectomorphic CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg affording a few possible strong to possibly severe wind gusts around dinner time this evening (Tuesday). With the loss of daytime heating, we should also see the loss of storms though there are a few hints that showers could linger a bit. The best chances for storms will be NW of a CDS to Morton line increasing as one goes NW. Into Wednesday, our northwestern four counties or so might get another shot at a few storms. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025 The Pacific Coast low is expected to translate eastward across the northern half of the country slowly only making it to the eastern edge of the Rockies by early Sunday morning before a complex interaction is indicated to take place with the merger of another system coming ashore British Columbia. After things settle out, another slowly translating trough should track similarly making it to the eastern edge of the Rockies by next Wednesday. At present, we`re advertising low end rain chances for Saturday/Sunday in our CWFA though interestingly, the suggestion of a front is largely unrealized given the lack of eastward progress of the aforementioned low/trough as it potentially is absorbed by the next system. It will be an interesting pattern to watch. As an alternative scenario, if the merger does not occur, we could see a cold front driven into the area. Still, will let the aggregated blend run given the uncertainty in the extended. Just beyond the valid period, there is another shot of a cold front about a week from now. Turning a bit more to the extended, the MJO, while having a very weak signal, suggests a decent cold front around the 30th of this month. Temperatures are gradually set to cool over the next week as we edge toward autumn. The 90s of the next few days should be replaced by mid to upper 80s by mid next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025 VFR. Barring a few evening TS that could impact PVW and to a lesser extent LBB, no aviation hazards are foreseen through Wednesday morning. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...93