281
FXUS64 KLUB 121805
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
105 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- A few isolated storms are possible on the Caprock through this
  evening, with additional scattered storm activity expected on
  Thursday. Strong wind gusts will be possible.

- Unseasonably hot temperatures continue through the next several
  days.

 - Dry weather is likely to persist from Saturday into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Another hot summer day is ongoing across the region as upper level
high pressure remains centered over the gulf coast. Relatively
breezy conditions will also continue over the next 24 hours given a
persistent and fairly deep surface trough over CO/KS and the TX
Panhandle, with south winds remaining in the 15 to 25 mph range
tonight through most of Thursday. Aloft, water vapor imagery
highlights a weak disturbance over southeast NM on the western
edge of the ride. Together with today`s strong heating and
slightly better midlevel moisture compared to days past, this may
be enough to support a few very isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening over western portions of the Caprock. Any
activity today will be high-based resulting in potential for
strong downburst winds, but storms will be disorganized and short-
lived with only a 10 percent chance or less of measurable
rainfall today.

Highs on Thursday are expected to be a bit warmer than today off the
Caprock where temperatures will peak near or just above 105
Thursday afternoon, and a Heat Advisory has been issued for
Thursday for areas east of the escarpment. Otherwise, chances for
afternoon and evening thunderstorms will return on Thursday with
forecast soundings indicating little inhibition above a deeply
mixed lower atmosphere. With the aforementioned weakness in the
ridging aloft still present nearby, conditions will be favorable
for the development of scattered high-based storms by mid-
afternoon, again favoring areas on the Caprock (with about a 20
percent chance of rain in any given location). Fairly significant
DCAPE values near 1500 J/kg will support downburst and damaging
wind potential beneath the strongest storm cores, but a lack of
meaningful deep layer shear will keep storm activity rather
disorganized. Confidence in iso/sct storm development Thursday
afternoon is relatively high, but storm evolution through the rest
of the evening will be predominantly outflow-driven with
confidence in eastward propagation and coverage off the Caprock
remaining quite low. Given the very dry fuel states across the
region, it is worth noting that lightning strikes may result in
wildfire ignition, particularly over the SE TX Panhandle if storms
survive that far east.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The upper level ridge will continue to shift westward Friday into
the weekend, with the ribbon of mid/upper level moisture responsible
for Wed-Thu storm chances consequently retreating back towards the
Four Corners. Thunderstorm potential will therefore decrease,
although a few isolated storms may still develop near the TX/NM
state line through Friday evening. Dry weather is favored to return
to the entire forecast area Sat-Sun and into at least early next
week as ridging aloft continues to build overhead. Temperatures will
remain about 5 degrees above normal for this time of year this
weekend through next week, with little signal for any meaningful
cooldown or precipitation chances through the end of the extended
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Check density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032-
037-038.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ024>026-031-
032-037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...51