Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
982 FXUS64 KLUB 032329 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 529 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 529 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 - Roller coaster of temperatures expected through the week with multiple cold fronts progged to track through the region. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1114 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 Current surface wind observations indicate the weak cold front is intersecting northeast to southwest across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Winds behind the front have shifted to the northwest while southwest winds prevail in front of the front. Models indicate the front will not proceed further and is expected to dissipate by this afternoon, shifting winds to the south. Upper ridging over the region will allow the temperatures to climb to the mid 70s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and lower 80s over the southern Rolling Plains this afternoon. The upper ridging will push to the east of the CWA this evening, shifting winds to the southwest through the overnight hours. Tonight will be quiet with mostly clear skies and lows will be in the 40s across the region. A lee surface trough will develop Tuesday across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle shifting the winds on the Caprock to the west while breezy southwesterly winds prevail off the Caprock. This surface flow will allow temperatures to increase to well above seasonal normal (~ 15 degrees) with highs in the 80s region wide. Otherwise, conditions tomorrow will be dry and sunny. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1114 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 No changes to the long term for this forecast package with a roller coaster of temperatures expected the rest of the week. An upper shortwave will track over the Great Lakes region late Tuesday through Wednesday morning. This upper disturbance will swing a cold front through the region at the same time. Similar to the front from Monday, this cold front will only make it part way through the CWA before dissipating. This will give a wide range of high temperatures on Wednesday with the far southwestern Texas Panhandle expecting mid 70s and the southern Rolling Plains expecting upper 80s. Surface winds will shift to the west Thursday in response to a lee low shifting east across the northern Texas Panhandle, allowing temperatures to warm to well above normal (again) with expected highs in the 80s area wide. Luckily, these warm temperatures do not last as a another cold front will push through the region late Thursday through early Friday. Unlike the other fronts from this week, this one will push through the entire region, cooling temperatures Friday with expected highs in the 70s. Saturday and Sunday seem to be a rinse and repeat of Thursday and Friday. Winds will shift to the west Saturday in response to a lee surface low warming temperatures before a cold front pushes through the region Saturday evening cooling temperatures on Sunday. Depending on the timing of the front, highs on Saturday could change for future forecasts. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 529 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 Continued VFR with steady SSW winds, becoming breezier by late Tue morning. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...93