806
FXUS64 KLUB 190320
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1020 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1019 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

 - Hot temperatures will persist through next week with values
   likely exceeding 105 degrees off the caprock.

 - Slight chances of storms will exist across the southern Texas
   Panhandle during the evening hours Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1019 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

The combination of a surface front and favorable upper level flow
will bring slight chances of precipitation back in the forecast. A
strong upper level ridge currently centered over Arizona will start
to amplify on Wednesday. This will allow flow aloft locally to veer
more to the northwest. At the same time, a short wave trough will be
diving southeastward out of the Rockies onto the Central Plains. A
cold front will slide southward extending from southeastern Colorado
into the northern Texas Panhandle. Strong upslope flow on the front
range into the Raton Mesa will initiate convective development
during the early afternoon. The increasingly more favorable mid and
upper level flow will allow this convection to drift southeast
possibly making it into the southwestern Texas Panhandle during the
evening hours. Storms are expected to be considerably weaker by the
time they reach West Texas. Therefore, chances of severe are low but
not zero with a slight downburst wind threat. The other forecast
issue for Wednesday will again be hot temperatures. Thickness values
are progged to tick up another 20 meters. Areas off the caprock will
likely see temperatures at or above 105 with some areas approaching
warning criteria of 110.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1019 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

The upper level ridge will continue its amplification trend through
the rest of the week centered over the four corners resulting in
very warm temperatures staying in place. In fact, very little
variation in temperatures is expected through at least early next
week. Forecast maximum temperatures will be near record values over
the next week. The aforementioned surface boundary is expected to
become quasi-stationary over the Texas Panhandle Thursday and Friday
keeping slight chances of convection in the forecast. However,
predictability of the placement of this boundary is low. The
expected convection each afternoon will likely affect the placement
of this boundary in addition to residual outflow boundaries that
will be present.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

VFR is expected to continue through the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ024>026-
030>032-036>038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...01