954
FXUS64 KLUB 102325
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
625 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

 - Hot and dry conditions expected to continue through mid-week
   before a slight cooling trend through the weekend.

 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily west
   of I-27, Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Not much of a change to the short term forecast package this
afternoon with the synoptic pattern continuing to favor hot and dry
weather conditions thanks to the 595 dam upper high positioned
across the Desert Southwest. This pattern looks to continue through
at least early Tuesday afternoon, before we begin to see the upper
level ridge scoot eastward in response to shortwave troughing
developing near the California coastline. As a result, we can expect
hot afternoon highs both Monday and Tuesday, with Tuesday looking to
be slightly warmer thanks to a slight increase in thickness values
as lee cyclogenesis promotes slightly breezy south-southwesterly
winds Tuesday afternoon. No precipitation is expected through the
short term thanks to subsidence provided by the stubborn upper high
locked in place over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Hot temperatures are expected to continue through much of the work
week, with the hottest temperatures occurring around mid-week as we
see an uptick in heights and thickness values as the upper ridge and
area of high pressure centers itself in the vicinity of the Caprock
regions. In combination with breezy southerly surface flow we can
expect highs to become hot across the area, in the upper 90s to
lower triple digits. With the hottest afternoon temperatures fixated
off the Caprock, inching close to heat advisory level criteria given
850 mb temperatures around 32C to 35C. A slight change to the upper
level pattern is expected to occur towards the end of the work week
as an H5 shortwave trough dives into the western CONUS, allowing
flow aloft across the region to become oriented southwesterly. As a
result, geopotential heights along with thickness values will
decrease while a modest plume of monsoonal moisture transports
itself into the region thanks to southwesterly flow at the H3 to H7
layer. Increased moisture across the region will promote the chance
for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
through late evening Thursday through Saturday. Steering flow will
remain weak, generally less than 20 knots, which will limit
thunderstorm activity from expanding eastward into areas off the
Caprock. Storms will likely remain fixated west of the I-27
corridor, as they develop off the higher terrain and slowly make
their way into areas across the Caprock. The severe weather threat
remains low at this time, however MUCAPE up to 1200 J/kg suggest
that an isolated storm or two may have the potential of becoming
marginally severe with strong downburst winds given inverted-v
profiles.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR next 24 hours.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...26