012
FXUS64 KLUB 081736
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1236 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across much of
  the area, before decreasing in coverage by late afternoon.

- Cooler this afternoon with a gradual warming trend through the
  weekend, temperatures back above seasonal normal.

- Possible elevated fire weather conditions arrive this weekend
  with warm temperatures and southerly breezes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

KLBB radar imagery as of 12 PM CST this afternoon shows showers and
thunderstorms translating across the Caprock, with the round
overnight convection still lingering across areas off the Caprock.
Coverage in precipitation will begin to wane as we enter the
afternoon period and we lose associated lift as the disturbance
ejects to the northeast. Overall threat at this time remains the
chance for locally heavy rainfall which could lead to localized
flooding concerns. Especially across areas that have already
received beneficial rainfall from overnight precipitation. Highs
this afternoon will be slightly warmer than previous, although
remaining on the cooler side and near seasonal normals thanks to
lingering precipitation and cloud cover. Expect highs to range from
the lower 70s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to the mid
80s across the southeastern Rolling Plains. Overnight, quieter and
drier conditions will develop, drier in the sense of no PoPs. The
easterly component to the wind at the surface, combined with
relatively light winds and dewpoints remaining in the  upper 50s to
mid 60s will lead to chances for patchy fog across much of the FA.
One exception will be for areas across the southern Rolling Plains
where winds may turn more southerly allowing more drier air to filter
in. Thursday we will begin to see the start of the warming trend as
an upper level ridge expands across the region with the center of
the high parked over the Rio Grande. This increase in height and
thickness values along with subsidence aloft will bring drier
conditions and warmer temperatures with highs in the 80s to near 90
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

The upper level ridge will amplify through the start of the long
term period with the associated high remaining parked over the Big
Country. Meanwhile at the surface, a lee side low will develop and
influence the return of southwesterly surface winds by Friday. These
southerly winds will work to transport WAA into the region, which in
combination with mostly clear skies and subsidence aloft and at the
surface will result in highs warming back above normal in the 80s
and 90s. Similar conditions are expected Saturday, except southwest
winds will become breezy to low-end windy as the lee trough digs
southward and we begin to see pressure gradient rises across the
region. NBM winds look to be slightly underdone given the set-up so
went ahead and blended in NBM 75th to align better with MOS guidance
with wind speeds around 15 to 20 mph and gusts to 30 mph possible.
Not only will these winds bring in a warmer air mass but also a
drier airmass which combined with the breezy conditions and
unseasonably warm temperatures could lead to elevated fire weather
concerns. By Sunday, an upper level trough moving through the PacNW
will shift the ridge east slightly, resulting in the center of the
high to move ever so slightly to the south. Flow aloft will then
turn more southwesterly across the FA where we will begin to see mid-
level moisture increase. Additionally, our eyes are fixated on
Hurricane Priscilla out in the eastern Pacific. Ensembles continue
to hint that remnants from this tropical system will become absorbed
within the main flow by the start of next week. If this comes to
fruition, there is the potential that at least western portions of
the FA could see showers and thunderstorms move in from eastern New
Mexico. Although there is a lot of uncertainty with this so will
maintain NBM mentionable PoPs across the aforementioned area at this
time. Heading into the beginning of the work week next week, the
shortwave trough across the PacNW will quickly eject northeast in
response to a stronger upper level low barreling into the PacNW. Off
to the northeast, an upper level shortwave will continue to
translate east. In response, an omega block pattern will set up
across the CONUS with a monsoonal axis of moisture oriented directly
overhead through at least Tuesday. Therefore, daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be possible through at least Tuesday
as we see increased moisture across the FA and subtle disturbances
ripple through.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

A second round of precipitation was currently moving across the
region early this afternoon. Occasional thunder was observed within
this activity which will likely affect the KLBB and KPVW terminals
for the next hour or so. CIGS may drop down into IFR for a brief
period as precipitation moves directly over the terminals. Rapid
clearing is expected after precipitation moves east of the
terminals. Fog and low CIGS will be possible early Thursday morning
at all TAF sites.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...01