342
FXUS64 KLUB 171724
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

 - Triple-digit temperatures expected today, and a Heat Advisory
   is in effect for much of the South Plains through this evening.

 - There is a low chance of thunderstorms in the Rolling Plains
   late this evening and again and Wednesday afternoon, some may
   be strong or severe.

 - Warm and dry conditions to return mid-week and remain in place
   through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Breezy southerly winds will persist into the overnight hours keeping
temperatures mild, with lows generally in the low-to-mid 70s. Winds
will turn slightly more out of the SW into this afternoon and
increase to around 20-25 mph sustained. High upper heights will
also continue ahead of a ridge. This will lead to the hottest day
of the year, with near heat advisory level highs well into the
triple digits across much of the area. That said, the records at
Lubbock and Childress are both in the 110s, so those appear to be
safe. A dryline will track across the CWA from west to east this
morning through early afternoon. Some of the CAMs indicate
convective development along this line (mainly east of I-27) as
well as further development later in the evening (mainly over the
southern South Plains) as an upper wave passes through. While
neither of these rounds are expected to produce any widespread
severe weather, a stray severe storm producing large hail and/or
high winds cannot be completely ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A cold front on Wednesday will bring a slight reprieve from the
triple-digit heat, lowering highs back to near seasonal averages in
the upper 80s to mid 90s. Depending on the exact timing/position of
the FROPA, a few thunderstorms may be possible particularly over the
southern Rolling Plains, however confidence for these remains low.
Otherwise, generally hot and dry conditions will persist through end
of the week as a broad upper ridge builds to the west. Widespread
highs in the upper 90s appear likely Thursday through Saturday. A
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest may partially nudge the
upper ridge off to our east and lead to a slightly more active
pattern by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF period. Strong SSW
winds with gusts near 30 kt will continue through the rest of this
afternoon, then weaken slightly and turn more SSE this evening.
Some isolated TS may develop to the east of LBB/PVW late this
afternoon and may impact CDS this evening, but confidence of
coverage and location of TS is low at this time. Strong and
erratic downburst winds should be expected near any convection
today. Winds will then become northerly behind a cold front late
tonight through early Wednesday morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ027-028-033>035-
039>041.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...30