924
FXUS64 KLUB 272313
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
613 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 603 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances continue tonight and again
   Saturday afternoon.

 - Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue across most of
   the region each day Sunday through the middle of next week.

 - A gradual warming trend is expected through the upcoming
   weekend before a modest cool-down arrives early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

The pattern over the CONUS will continue its transition to a more
zonal pattern nearer the Canadian border with subtropical ridging
from coast to coast across its southern half. Meanwhile, the surface
pattern across the forecast area will continue to promote a
southerly component to the winds and relative high dew point
temperatures. Thunderstorm chances will be confined to 20-30 percent
as no low level focus exists. Rather, a deep, moist air mass will
remain in place evidenced by the persistent moisture plume extending
from the interior of Mexico northward over the southern High Plains
and beyond. This will set up the potential for air mass type
thunderstorms once convective temperatures are reached both this
afternoon and Saturday afternoon, as is already ongoing across
portions of the forecast area. This afternoon and evening might see
a modest enhancement in coverage across the western counties where
the influence of a weak shortwave trough lifting northeastward
across eastern New Mexico may be seen. The overnight hours will also
have a lingering chance given the deeper moisture and the propensity
for that to be released in the nocturnal hours this time of year.
Otherwise, little change to the grids are needed with the blend and
MOS in good agreement with temperatures and other forecast
elements.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Unsettled weather will continue through much of the extended period
with daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend into next week. At
the start of the period, upper level ridging will encompass much of
the southern half of the United States as southwest flow aloft
continues to transport monsoonal moisture into much of the region.
Meanwhile at the surface, the upslope component to the wind will
continue to aid in dewpoint temperatures climbing into the 60s and
70s across much of the FA. Although instability and forcing for
ascent remains rather weak, subtle perturbations within the flow
aloft may provide enough lifting mechanism for at least isolated to
scattered showers Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Warm
temperatures will also continue Sunday, with a gradual warmup of
temperatures by a few degrees in the mid to upper 90s expected.
However, forecast soundings do depict a decent column of moisture at
the low to mid-levels Sunday morning, which considering a similar
pattern setup to previous days, we could see any early morning cloud
cover that develops linger through part of the afternoon. In which,
could throw a wrench in daytime highs which  Given the presence of
moisture through the lower to mid levels on forecast soundings,
along with previous days, there is a chance any low to mid-level
cloud cover that lingers through parts of the afternoon could hinder
daytime highs. Overall confidence in this solution remains quite
low, with forecasted highs projecting some of the highest
temperatures of the week due to increased subsidence and warm
southerly surface winds. An uptick in showers and thunderstorms is
expected from the overnight Sunday period through Tuesday as we see
the upper level ridge begin to amplify over the Desert Southwest
region as an upper level trough moves onshore the California
coastline while a secondary trough digs through the Upper Midwest.
As a result, we will see flow aloft become more northerly across the
region which will help influence slightly cooler temperatures in the
80s to low 90s as thickness values begin to decrease and surface
flow becomes more east-southeasterly. Additionally, as previously
mentioned, we will see an uptick in showers and thunderstorms
during this period as the axis of monsoonal moisture becomes better
aligned over the region which combined with slightly better forcing
and instability leads to slight chance to chance PoPs over much of
the area early next week. Any showers and thunderstorms that develop
will have the chance of producing locally heavy rainfall given the
well saturated column of moisture present on forecast soundings
along with the long skinny CAPE profiled as well as PWATs well above
the seasonal normals around 1.5" to even 2" across some areas. The
pattern begins to "relax" slightly mid-week as the upper level ridge
to our west shifts overhead as the upper level trough scoots into
the western CONUS, influencing the return of warmer and
slightly drier conditions compared to earlier in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Coverage of rain showers and thunderstorms have decreased recently
this afternoon. However, additional isolated development is still
possible through the evening hours at all TAF sites. Coverage is
expected to be very low so no mention was made in the TAF of
thunderstorms. If any storm does affect a TAF site, it will likely
be brief with heavy rainfall and gusty and erratic surface winds.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...01