550
FXUS64 KLUB 131117
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
517 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 515 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

 - Warm and dry conditions through the weekend, with possible
   record highs today through Saturday.

 - Cooler next week but still dry through at least Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Quiet conditions will continue today through tonight across the
region. Upper ridging will continue to build over the region through
the early morning hours with the ridge axis moving near the FA by
sunrise Friday. Surface winds will become more westerly through this
morning as a surface lee trough broadens and moves slightly east
into the Great Plains. Winds will remain light, however, thanks to
the broad surface gradient. The combination of westerly winds and
the overhead ridge will help afternoon high temps reach into the low
to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

The main story for Friday and Saturday remains the well-above
average temperatures under a strong ~585 Dm ridge. Outside of the
far SW Panhandle, highs in the mid-to-upper 80s remain expected
under mostly sunny skies. This may lead to some localized elevated
fire weather conditions. An upper low will move onshore over
southern California late Saturday into Sunday. Models remain in good
consensus that the associated precipitation will remain west of our
area and PoPs have again been left out of the forecast. While
surface WSW winds will continue during the afternoon hours
thereafter through Tuesday, upper heights will fall as the
aforementioned trough displaces the warmer airmass under the ridge.
Highs will drop by about 5-7 degrees each day, falling into the 60s
by mid-week. A second deeper trough with a greater southerly
moisture fetch looks to develop around this time frame as well,
possibly bringing a correspondingly greater precipitation chance to
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR will prevail at all TAF sites.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...30