065
FXUS64 KLUB 060506
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1206 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1149 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

- Isolated storms are possible Sunday near the New Mexico/Texas
  border and the far southwest Texas Panhandle.

- Above normal temperatures persist through much of this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

An expansive upper ridge remains centered over the south-central
US, with the ridge axis extending well northward across the Great
Plains. Temperatures today were a few degrees cooler than Friday,
albeit still hot in the upper 90s to low 100s. Dewpoints were
also several degrees higher compared to Friday. Despite the higher
sfc moisture, storms mainly stayed on the fringes of the forecast
area (or points to the immediate west and north), owing to
subsidence aloft. The upper pattern is largely unchanged on
Sunday, with perhaps a slight westward shift of the upper ridge.

Given the limited storm coverage today and potential for the
monsoonal moisture plume to be nudged further west by the ridge on
Sun, there is not much excitement regarding storm potential in
our FA on Sunday. Any storms that do form would be confined to the
TX/NM border and the far SW TX Panhandle. As has been the case in
this ongoing late summer pattern, any storms that do form could
produce locally gusty winds owing to a very deep, well-mixed
boundary layer (downdraft CAPE values approaching 1500 J/kg).
Temps are forecast to be a tad cooler Sunday than today, but still
well above average, with forecast highs in the mid 90s to near
100F. Normal highs are upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

The warm and mostly dry pattern is likely to continue through at
least the first half of this week, with the upper ridge persisting
but becoming flattened as a wave ejects onto the northern Plains.
Despite this, upper level heights actually rise across the
southern US by midweek, with latest guidance suggesting 500mb
heights of 596-598 dam. In response to that northern US wave,
pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies will induce modest
southerly flow locally Mon-Wed (sustained 10-15 mph winds). This
sfc flow pattern, combined with the gradually increasing upper
heights, makes me wonder if the NBM is a few degrees too cool on
the high temps (it has had a cool bias in similar setups this
summer). The NBM forecast has highs in the mid 90s on the Caprock
and near 100F off the Caprock, so regardless, temperatures will
remain above average through mid-week.

That midweek waving passing to the north could push a front south
across the central Plains, but most guidance stops it north of our
forecast area Wed-Thurs. However, late in the week and into next
weekend, the upper ridge shifts towards the SW CONUS, introducing
NW aloft which could open the door to occasional precip chances.

It has been a lengthy stretch of summer heat. KLBB and KCDS are
sitting at 50 and 51 consecutive days above 90F, respectively, and
several more such days are on the way. Both of these streaks rank
among the top 10 longest for those airports (although it pales in
comparison to the 100-day streak of 90F+ days that occurred in
2011). At last, there are at least some hints of relief from the
heat in the extended forecast. While the deterministic model blend
keeps temps warm (in the mid 90s/low 100s) into next weekend,
individual NBM members depict a 10-40% chance of highs below 90F.
This is by no means a guaranteed pattern change, but at this
point we`ll take any hints of relief that we can get.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...51