150
FXUS64 KLUB 141741
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1241 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Temperatures in the 90s or higher will continue through the week
  with a gradual cooling trend mid to late week.

- Daily storm chances exist through the upcoming week, favoring
  areas on the Caprock.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Today remains on track to be slightly cooler than Sunday with
surface temps still in the 80s as of noon. Highs should top out near
the mid 90s on the Caprock and upper 90s/around 100 off the Caprock.
Convective development is expected across eastern New Mexico by the
late afternoon along a decently defined surface trough. Some storms
may push into our northwestern zones this evening before dissipating,
but this would be short lived. Any further eastward progression will
be limited by upper flow. Better storm chances will come Tuesday
afternoon/evening. An upper low currently over Montana will push
eastward into the Great Lakes Tuesday as an open wave trough. This
system will push a cold front southward through the Great Plains
region before stalling over the Texas Panhandle into southeastern
New Mexico. This front will be focus for convective development and
should be confined mostly to areas on the Caprock, though the exact
extent of coverage remains uncertain. High PoPs have been retained
across our northwestern zones as the front should at least move over
that region. The cold front should fade away by late Tuesday
evening/early Wednesday morning as southerly surface flow dominates
in response to a surface lee trough, and this should bring
convection to an end by midnight Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Upper heights will increase Wednesday on the order of ~5 DM at H500.
This will help to keep the best convective chances west of the FA,
but lower thicknesses will allow highs to be cooler than Tuesday and
average near 90 across our northwest to around 100 across our
southeast. Better rain chances will work back into the forecast by
late week and the weekend. The upper high over the southeast CONUS
will weaken from H600 to H594, brought on by both a weak upper level
low/inverted trough that will move into the Central Gulf Coast by
Saturday, and by an upper trough formed from the remnants of a
progged upper low over the Pacific Northwest. The aforementioned
upper trough should help to bring monsoonal moisture over the
Southern Plains and hopefully bring much needed rainfall.  A
possible cold front by late weekend would help to enhance lift and,
as a result, convection. Jackets and coats may be needed by early
next week if the current forecast continues to hold as highs will
only reach into the low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions continue through the period, along with breezy
southerly winds gusting up to 30 kts this afternoon. Winds remain
out of the south overnight into tomorrow, but gusts should weaken
after 00z. Some high clouds may stream in from the west this
evening as storms develop near the TX/NM border.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...24