884
FXUS64 KLUB 010343
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1043 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1035 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

 - Fog possible Sunday morning, mainly on the Caprock.

 - Storm chances return late Sunday night through Monday morning,
   primarily across the far southwest Panhandle and northern
   South Plains.

 - Breezy westerly winds remain expected on Monday, with gusts up
   to 45 mph possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Skies have finally cleared out over a majority of the forecast area.
This however looks to be short-lived as forecast soundings indicate
full saturation below 850 mb overspreading the area in the hours
before sunrise. As such, areas of fog and low cloud cover are
expected, with areas on the Caprock seeing the highest potential
for reduced visibilities. Use caution if traveling. Despite an
upper ridge, clouds will remain trapped under an low-level
inversion through the day. Slightly more elevated southerly winds
around 15 mph and height rises from the aforementioned ridge will
push highs generally in the low 70s. Precipitation is not
expected outside of some possible drizzle.

A deep trough will track across the west Sunday and will displace
the ridge from having the majority of the influence later Sunday
evening. Associated showers and thunderstorms will reach the far
southwest Panhandle before quickly tracking across northern
portions of the area Monday morning. The overall timing generally
does not favor severe weather, however with modest CAPE and shear,
severe storms cannot be completely ruled out along with a non-
zero tornado potential.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

The aforementioned storms should be quite fast moving with subsequent
fast steering flow. The dryline looks to move completely east of the
forecast area by the afternoon hours. If it slows down at all, a few
storms could develop off the far eastern Caprock. The main concern
however for Monday afternoon remains the breezy westerly winds.
There are two closed lows that will develop in the lee of the
Rockies. The stronger of which will be well to the north, reaching
South Dakota. The southern low is slightly more disorganized and not
as compact. Thus it is not the best setup for the very strong wind
events we see here mostly in the winter. That said, winds aloft will
be favorable to mix down with surface gusts potentially reaching 45
mph. Winds will diminish overnight into Tuesday and gradually turn
more northerly behind a surface cold front. Highs Tuesday will fall
into the low-to-mid 60s although the cooler dry air will allow for
skies to clear. A few weak disturbances will move around our area
through the remainder of the week, however no precipitation chances
are expected at this time. Highs will remain slightly below average,
generally in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Skies will clear through over the next several hours before
IFR/LIFR CIGs/VIS will return early Sunday morning. KLBB and KPVW
should be a bit lower than KCDS. These will persist through the
afternoon before returning to MVFR. Slightly breezy southerly
winds will develop by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...19