386
FXUS64 KLUB 290347
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1047 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1037 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

 - Triple digit temperatures continue through Friday before a
  slight cool down over the weekend.

 - Chance of thunderstorms return Friday and Saturday.

 - Hot triple digit temperatures return early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Although it is a couple hours past sunset, current surface obs
indicate temperatures across the region are still in the mid 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures will continue to cool with lows reaching the
upper 60s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to upper 70s
across the southern Rolling Plains.The rest of the overnight period
will be quiet with mostly clear skies. Current surface observations
indicate winds are from the southeast in response to a surface low
across southeastern CO. This surface trough will gradually shift to
the east across the Central Plains shifting winds to the southwest
by early Wednesday morning. Another surface trough will develop
across southern CO and northern NM early Wednesday afternoon
shifting winds back to the southeast. Sadly, the ever present upper
ridging that resulted in the very hot temperatures the past few days
will prevail through Wednesday. Although temperatures will be hot,
they will be a few degrees cooler compared to today. High
temperatures will reach the upper 90s across the southern South
Plains and up to 106 across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle. A
Heat Advisory is in effect for 1 PM to 9 PM Wednesday for the far
southeastern Texas Panhandle and portions of the Rolling Plains.
Highs in that area are expected to reach up to 107 degrees.
Subsidence below the ridging will keep precipitation chances near
zero.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Hot temperatures are expected to continue through the long term
forecast. The upper ridging mentioned in the short term discussion
will remain stagnant across the southwestern CONUS at least through
Friday. Heat Advisory high temperatures will be possible, especially
off the Caprock, both Thursday and Friday. Therefore, can expect
Heat Advisories in the future. An upper pattern change and frontal
passage this weekend will bring precipitation chances and slightly
cooler temperatures, although only by a few degrees. An upper trough
across New England will move away as a secondary upper trough begins
to amplify as it translates across the Midwest later in the week. As
this upper trough amplifies, the upper ridging will get pushed
farther west, although the eastern edge of the upper ridge will
remain above the FA. At the same time, the upper trough will swing a
weak front through the region Friday. This will "cool" temperatures
over the weekend, however highs will remain in the mid 90s to lower
100s over the weekend. NBM has backed off on precipitation chances
with thunderstorm chances for Thursday mostly to the north of the
CWA. However chances for thunderstorms, mainly on the Caprock,
remain forecasted for Friday and Saturday. The upper ridging will
push back east across the forecast area early next week bringing
triple digit temperatures and dry conditions again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR next 24 hours. While not reflected in the TAF, wind speeds
will diminish and shift southwesterly late tonight through
sunrise. Check density altitude. KLBB/KPVW runs around 6500` in
the heat of the afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ025-026-031-
032-037-038.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...26