425
FXUS64 KLUB 311725
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

 - Storms likely on the Caprock later this afternoon and evening,
   some with severe wind gusts, blowing dust, and heavy rain.

 - Cooler on Saturday behind a cold front, with lingering storm
   chances near the TX and NM border.

 - The heat resumes next week with daily Heat Advisories possible
   off the Caprock.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Just in time for the last day of July, a cold front was making
headway through the northern Texas Panhandle as of noon ahead of
cooler and breezy northeasterlies. Aloft, a few ripples in
northwest flow along with weak isentropic ascent above 850 mb were
still generating some non-surface based convection from about
Hereford to Plainview, although this will dwindle in the coming
hours ahead of surface-based convection likely to develop along
the aforementioned cold front. This front is favorably timed to
reach our panhandle counties by peak heating (4-5 PM), so with
little CIN by this time we expected isolated storms near the
front and off the Caprock, with scattered-to-numerous coverage
elsewhere thanks to better upslope winds in the post-frontal
sector. CAMs are converging on this idea in favoring the greatest
storm coverage near the TX-NM border through this evening before
dwindling overnight as convection and lingering MCVs depart for
the Permian Basin.

In the wake of the cold front, August starts on a much cooler and
muggier note thanks to ENE breezes pulling mid/upper 60 dewpoints
onto the Caprock. This will bring us our first day of sub-100
degree highs areawide since July 20th, but the initially muggy air
in the morning will turn drier with afternoon mixing. As such,
CAMs have trended drier with rain prospects over all but our far
western counties Saturday afternoon/evening closer to the ideal
moist upslope in eastern New Mexico, so NBM`s PoPs were reduced
over all but the western South Plains and far southwest Texas
Panhandle. Deeper northerly flow should also keep these storms
more confined to New Mexico with not much eastward movement
expected. Despite meager SBCAPEs of 500 J/kg or less, any of these
storms could produce marginally severe winds from tall inverted-v
profiles supportive of DCAPEs around 1500 J/kg.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The overall theme for Sunday and beyond is hotter and drier
underneath the eastern portion of an upper high - the center of
which is poised to hold over the Desert Southwest most days
keeping the worst of the heat well to our west. There is more
evidence for weakening of the height fields locally as early as
Tuesday thanks to a robust upper low and trough careening from the
Gulf of Alaska through the Dakotas. This feature could subject
our northern zones to some disturbances or even nocturnal precip
chances in WNW flow, although this is a low potential and not
reflected well by ensembles or the NBM at this time. What is
higher confidence is the return of triple-digit highs, mainly off
the Caprock, with some opportunities for more Heat Advisories.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

A complicated setup is expected this evening as we have a front
moving south through the region.  Storms are expected to form near
the frontal boundary late this afternoon perhaps along and north of
a KCDS to KPVW line.  As the evening progresses, a storm complex
should move southeast out of New Mexico and bring another round of
thunderstorm chances.  Any precipitation / virga today will have the
potential for very strong downburst winds in their vicinity.
Otherwise, VFR is expected outside of convective activity.  Check
density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ025-026-031-032-
037-038.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...26