691
FXUS64 KLUB 251858
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
158 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

H500 ridging remains parked over the southwestern USA with upper
troughing near the Great Lakes region resulting in continued
northwestern flow across South Plains. At the surface, elongated
troughing remains fixed across the Desert Southwest with resultant
southwesterly surface flow locally.

Continued moisture advection and the passage of a weak upper mid
level disturbance rounding the northern portion of the mid level
ridge will support isolated to scattered rain showers and
thunderstorms across the South Plains and extreme southern Texas
Panhandle. Hi-res models this afternoon have precipitation across
the NW portions of the area just shy of 00Z and are also depicting a
weakly organized grouping of storms moving into the Childress area
and points southward after 01Z. Ingredients (dewpoints in the upper
60s and HREF mean SBCAPEs of near 1000 J/kg) will be in place for
storms to become strong with an isolated severe or two if the
activity focuses across the western South Plains. The main impacts
will be strong winds, locally heavy rainfall and hail up to one
inch. SPC has included areas north of Lubbock in a marginal (1 out
of 4) risk for this activity.

Tonight`s low temperatures will fall into the 70s area wide with
mostly clear skies. Tomorrow strong solar insolation under sunny
skies will aid in temperatures climbing above the century mark
across the entire area, with the Rolling Plains seeing temperatures
as high as 104F. Increased temperatures in combination with elevated
dewpoints will create heat index values over 105F across the
portions of the Rolling Plains tomorrow...will likely need a Heat
Advisory for tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Heat is the story of the week, with a major upper level ridge moving
overhead for the majority of the upcoming week, transitioning into a
more zonal flow by Friday as a upper-level trough moves through the
Northern Plains.

Strong positive temperature anomalies are expected to accompany this
ridge, along with above average moisture with dewpoints remaining in
the low 60s for the forecast period. This can be primarily
attributed to the southerly surface winds that persist for the
foreseeable future. Most of the Caprock will be pushing triple digit
heat index values until Saturday, where temperatures will lower
slightly through the weekend and into early next week. Off the
Caprock, heat index values will be easily into the triple digits,
with a heat index of 105 or greater expected until Sunday. Thursday
and Friday will be the hottest of the period, occurring right before
the ridge transitions into a more zonal pattern.

Luckily, storm chances exist on Wednesday and Saturday, which may
bring some relief to these hot temperatures. Wednesday afternoon
storms may develop along the higher terrain in New Mexico. Weak
north northwest flow aloft will give way to slow storm motion. The
upper ridge Wednesday evening will slide southward with a weak
shortwave that may help to push storms into the far southwest Texas
Panhandle and northern South Plains. Any storm that develops will be
capable of strong wind gusts with a very dry and well-mixed boundary
layer. Storm chances increase again Saturday thanks to modest
dewpoints in combination with surface convergence along a trough
that develops in New Mexico. Potential storms could be aided by the
possibility of a shortwave trough that move through. Storm coverage
remains uncertain, however likelihood of precipitation is highest in
the northwest area of our domain, where a surface front may stall.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals through
the TAF period. There is a slight chance TS could reach KCDS and
KPVW this evening, and an outside chance for KLBB. Confidence
remains too low to insert a mention at this time, but check back
for future updates. Any clouds accompanying possible TS expected
to dissipate overnight. Check density altitude.

 &&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-032.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...28