852
FXUS64 KLUB 071713
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1213 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

 - Hot, with above normal temperatures to continue through the
   week, with record breaking heat possible Wednesday and
   Saturday.

 - Isolated to scattered storms possible Wednesday evening through
   Thursday.

 - Potential cooler and wetter trend arrives early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Water vapor imagery late this morning currently depicts the upper
level high spiraling over the northern Texas Panhandle region, while
drier air attempts to funnel its way back into the region this
afternoon. Though easterly flow aloft will likely keep this from
happening with dewpoints remaining quite impressive for this time of
year in the upper 50s and 60s across both Caprock regions. Despite
this increased moisture near the surface, subsidence provided by the
upper level high dominating across the region along with minimal mid-
level moisture will suppress our shot of precipitation this afternoon
through Tuesday. The main message for the short term will be the
continuation of above normal temperatures, about 10 to 15 degrees
from our normal departure, in the mid 90s to lower triple digits
thanks to increased thickness and height values centered across the
region. Tuesday will see temperatures even warmer than Monday, as
the H7 upper high expands into areas Off the Caprock which will
prompt another uptick in thickness values with 850 mb temperatures
around 30C suggesting afternoon highs in the upper 90s to near heat
advisory level criteria off the Caprock. As of now, highs look to be
just below the threshold, but would not be surprised if one is
warranted in the next forecast shift.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Above seasonal normal afternoon highs will be the theme of the
extended forecast period, though a cooling trend seems to be in the
works as we head into the late extended forecast. But first, we will
have to settle for consecutive days of mid to upper 90s and lower
triple digit heat as the FA remains encompassed by a 596 dam upper
level high through at least mid to late week. Considering
geopotential heights remain above climatological standards, NBM high
temperatures tying the record of 102 degrees at Childress, and just
one degree shy of the 99 degree record at Lubbock, seems likely.
Thankfully, the ridge begins to break down late Wednesday into
Thursday the upper level trough to our north continues to translate
eastward through the Canadian provinces. Simultaneously attempting
to swing a "cold" front into the FA. Though models diverge on the
evolution of this, with most models washing it out before it enters
northern portions of the Caprock regions. Nonetheless, flow aloft
will begin to turn northerly, bringing in monsoonal moisture into
the region. depending on where the associated disturbances reside
within the main flow, combined with frontal/convective outflow
timing, we could see chances for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms return late Wednesday. As far as temperatures go,
there is a vast amount of uncertainty, specifically with Thursday
temperatures, which will be determined by lingering outflows which
could allow for brief northerly flow or even the southward moving
cold front. That is, if it can maintain itself and track through the
region. As a result of this uncertainty, we plan to maintain NBM
slightly cooler temperatures of about 3 to 5 degrees on Thursday for
the time being. Though, this may need to be changed to account for
frontal evolution in the coming days. Towards late week, the upper
level high will have split into two, with the pair of upper highs
positioned over the Desert Southwest while the other centers itself
over the eastern FL coastline. As a result, geopotential heights
will fall over the area, although still above climatological normals
for this time of year. Despite this, a secondary trough translating
into the PacNW will shift the westward positioned upper high back
over the region through the weekend. Which will allow for hot/record
breaking temperatures in the upper 90s to near heat advisory level
criteria to return Saturday. As far as precipitation chances go, NBM
mentionable PoPs seem probable at this time considering decent
monsoonal moisture return Wednesday evening through Thursday
evening, as moisture wraps around the base of the upper high and
into the region. Combined with lingering outflows and perturbations
through the main flow, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms seem to be possible. Though confidence remains low in
the coverage and timing of precipitation.

By the end of the extended, headed into early next week, our eyes
turn to the potential for our first cooling spell across the region.
This will be in part to the departing upper high to the east in
response to a deepening trough over the Central Plains as it
translates eastward towards the Great Lakes region. As of now, both
deterministic and ensemble guidance is keen on this bringing us our
first taste of fall with the potential for increased precipitation
chances as flow aloft turns southwesterly and aids in monsoonal
moisture into the region. However, this is still several days out
and we do not want to get anyone`s hopes up at this point. With
still several days for model spread to change. Though this hopefully
gives everyone something to look forward too in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Check density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12