047
FXUS64 KLUB 021736
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1228 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

 - Thunderstorms expected to move out of the Panhandle tonight
   affecting areas mainly to the north and northeast of Lubbock.

 - Seasonably hot Sunday with thunderstorm chances mainly east of
   the Caprock.

 - Building heat, with triple digit highs for most by Wednesday and
   continuing through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Convective initiation this afternoon is most likely to occur along
the entirety of the the Sangre de Cristo Range, secondarily farther
to the east on the highlands of northeastern New Mexico to the Texas
state line. Organization of storms into an MCS that moves to the
southeast across the Texas Panhandle and into mainly the northern
parts of the forecast area later tonight remains the consensus
amongst the entire range of models from hi-res to global, although
there has been a shift northward noted in the latest runs. Will run
with NBM PoPs for now that are lower than the previous forecast,
likely reflecting the northward shift in likely precipitation axis
as well as lingering uncertainty on timing in the 12 hour window
between roughly 03Z and 15Z. Precipitation could be ongoing at the
beginning of 2nd period at 12Z Sunday, but after a late morning to
early afternoon lull, convective initiation is expected Sunday
afternoon across the eastern half of the forecast area with remnant
outflow boundaries and orographic/Caprock effects due to moist,
upslope surface flow being the two most likely foci. A minor
adjustment to Sunday`s high temperature forecast was made as the NBM
was in the high end of the window of possibilities. There is enough
support for cooler than that high end with the potential for
lingering stratus as well as a solid easterly component to the low
level flow and a reinforcement of low level moisture to temper the
NBM values.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

The main theme in the extended forecast will be the heat, with
triple digit highs expected for most/all of the area from midweek
onward. Before then, thunderstorm chances will linger into Sunday
evening/night. A few of these storms could be strong to severe and
drop locally heavy/flooding rain.

A relatively flat subtropical ridge/high centered over northwest
Mexico into southern CA/AZ/NM midday today (Saturday) remains on
track to amplify and edge eastward through much of this coming week.
Before it does so, northwest flow aloft on the eastern periphery of
the ridge will persist overhead through early Monday, keeping our
weather unsettled, though details remain uncertain. A subtle
secondary disturbance may move through the flow late Sunday, while
low-levels will remain moist and conditionally unstable and deep
layer shear is respectable (35+ knots) by summer standards. The big
question mark is how the convection late tonight into Sunday morning
affects/influences redevelopment later Sunday into Sunday night.
We`ll have to see how things play out, but the environment will be
supportive of strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall
should everything come together.

Thereafter, the building upper ridge will be the main player,
tending to squash rain/storm chances and causing temperatures to
rise. There will be enough lingering low-level moisture on Monday
for at least a low risk of late-day convection, though overall
chances are under 10%. Rain chances will be even lower through the
middle of the week as the ridge center is progged to stretch from
eastern AZ through West Texas. Eventually, the medium range guidance
does indicate some mid-level moisture may get caught up in the ridge
by late week or next weekend, potentially increasing rain chances
locally. At this point, we have accepted the NBM PoPs which remain
unmentionable, but trend upward to around 10% across the
northwestern zones as early as Thursday evening.

Regarding temperatures, they rise in concert with with the
heights/thicknesses. Currently it appears most/all of the CWA will
experience highs in the triple digits Wednesday afternoon, with the
triple digit heat continuing through at least Friday. The ridge may
begin to weaken and retrograde by next weekend as broad troughing
crosses the northern tier of the nation and that could provide a few
degrees of cooling by Saturday (though it will still be hot). The
current NBM highs peak in the 100 to 104 degree range mid-late week.
This is just below our heat advisory criteria, which begins at 105
degrees, but it will be close and some spots, particularly off the
Caprock, could eventually need an advisory. Given this, we will add
a heat mention to the HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the afternoon
and likely through the evening. TSRA are expected to develop
northeastern NM, southeastern CO, and northwestern TX/OK Panhandles
this afternoon/evening and then roll southeastward with the best
chance of affecting KCDS. Will run with a PROB30 mention but leave
out at KPVW and KLBB where confidence is lower. Stratus behind the
TSRA is expected, again confidence is higher at KCDS over the other
two terminals, and the TAFs will reflect that confidence.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...07