


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
830 FXUS64 KLUB 141123 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 623 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 615 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 - Lingering rain showers will be possible across areas west of the Highway 385 corridor through late Tuesday morning. - Low chances for thunderstorms are forecast Thursday across the Caprock. - Breezy and warm weather is forecast for the rest of the week otherwise. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 In the mid/upper-levels, a well-defined isallohypsic couplet is situated over the Lower 48, featuring a longwave trough digging into the western U.S. interior and Pacific Coast; and a Nor`easter over the Eastern Seaboard. A shortwave trough, with a closed low rotating about its base, was trapped within the larger, meridional waveguide over the Pacific Coast, which remains positively-tilted. Farther east, an amplifying, subtropical ridge was centered over eastern TX, with its apex substantially tilted towards the northeast and into the MS River Valley due to the longwave troughing to the west. Geopotential height tendencies were slightly positive in response to the amplifying ridge, with large-scale subsidence advecting over the southeastern portions of the CWA where mid-level cloud debris has since eroded. Moist, isentropic ascent has, and will continue, to become increasingly scant over W TX throughout the remainder of the morning hours Tuesday. Isolated rain showers forecast to clip areas west of the HWY-385 corridor through the late morning hours, as the center of the subtropical ridge will rotate poleward into central North TX by this afternoon in conjuction with a sharpening of the cyclonic flow to the west of the CWA. Rain chances will effectively end by or prior to 18Z this afternoon across the western zones. At the surface, a wavy, quasi-stationary front was located slightly north of the CWA, extending along a line from SXU-CVN and bending northeastward directly along the HWY-60 corridor into NW OK. Warm theta-e advection remains intact area-wide, with a stark contrast on the north side of the stalled front where east-northeasterly winds are present. However, despite the well-defined corridor of low-level convergence, the combination of the decoupling boundary-layer and loss of sufficient condensate from the entrainment within the lower theta surfaces, the development of any shallow convection from this quasi-stationary front is futile. NBM PoPs were adjusted to reflect this thinking, with low/20-percent PoPs delineated for portions of the western zones through 18Z. As the meridional waveguide to the west becomes sharply cyclonic, the quasi-stationary front will transition into a warm front and lift northward towards the I-70 corridor, causing the easterly winds across the CWA to veer southeastward by the late morning hours beneath a sharp cap/warm nose. Full insolation as the mid-level cloud debris shifts northwestward will boost high temperatures into the lower 80s on the Caprock and into the middle 80s in the Rolling Plains. Benign weather will continue tonight, and the combination of a clear sky and diminishing winds will maximize the effects of radiational cooling. Low temperatures Wednesday morning will fall into the lower-middle 50s area-wide. Sincavage && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 The forecast for the extended period remains on track, with little change necessitated other than continuing the manual addition of low PoPs across the Caprock for Thursday. The troughing over the Rocky Mountains will begin to deamplify Wednesday, as the closed low rotates northeastward ahead of the exit-region of the quasi-zonal extension of the Pacific jet stream translates towards the Pacific Northwest. This will result in an eventual phasing of the jet stream, with the positively-tilted trough becoming open and nearly inverted along its southwestern periphery over the northeastern Pacific Ocean. Southerly winds will steadily increase in speed Wednesday into Thursday, as the ejecting trough maintains leeward pressure falls across the entire Great Plains. Low PoPs have once again been manually drawn across most of the Caprock for Thursday, as there remains a consensus among the global NWP data for the development of thunderstorms along or ahead of a Pacific cold front moving towards the region. It is possible that a diffuse dryline forms ahead of the Pacific cold front, and should this occur, the corridor of warm theta-e advection will be narrow, with a limited amount of time for cells to develop along the dryline before it is overtaken by the front. However, prospects for at least a couple of fast-moving storms are forecast to improve from the frontal forcing, especially during the latter half of the day Thursday. The severe weather threat is low, but confidence remains high enough to maintain an official delineation of 20-percent, or slight chance, PoPs for most of the Caprock Thursday. The Pacific cold front will slowly progress through the CWA Friday, as it will remain beneath the belt of broadly cyclonic flow. Farther west, a compact shortwave trough will translate through the base of the amplifying, northern-stream trough pivoting over the northern Great Plains. The arrival of this shortwave trough atop the Pacific cold front should result in the development of storms near the 100th meridian Friday afternoon and evening, but confidence remains low on far west the initiation of storms will occur, and there is only a sliver of low PoPs clipping the locales along 100th meridian for this prognostication. A westward expansion of PoPs in the Rolling Plains may be necessary in the forthcoming cycles as global NWP guidance converges on timing of the ejection of this fast-moving shortwave trough and whether or not the CWA is dry slotted. Sincavage && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Some light fog is possible at Childress this morning along with some east and north of the KPVW. Otherwise VFR is expected. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...26