830
FXUS64 KLUB 141123
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
623 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 615 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

 - Lingering rain showers will be possible across areas west of
   the Highway 385 corridor through late Tuesday morning.

 - Low chances for thunderstorms are forecast Thursday across the
   Caprock.

 - Breezy and warm weather is forecast for the rest of the week
   otherwise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

In the mid/upper-levels, a well-defined isallohypsic couplet is
situated over the Lower 48, featuring a longwave trough digging into
the western U.S. interior and Pacific Coast; and a Nor`easter over
the Eastern Seaboard. A shortwave trough, with a closed low rotating
about its base, was trapped within the larger, meridional waveguide
over the Pacific Coast, which remains positively-tilted. Farther
east, an amplifying, subtropical ridge was centered over eastern TX,
with its apex substantially tilted towards the northeast and into
the MS River Valley due to the longwave troughing to the west.
Geopotential height tendencies were slightly positive in response to
the amplifying ridge, with large-scale subsidence advecting over the
southeastern portions of the CWA where mid-level cloud debris has
since eroded. Moist, isentropic ascent has, and will continue, to
become increasingly scant over W TX throughout the remainder of the
morning hours Tuesday. Isolated rain showers forecast to clip areas
west of the HWY-385 corridor through the late morning hours, as the
center of the subtropical ridge will rotate poleward into central
North TX by this afternoon in conjuction with a sharpening of the
cyclonic flow to the west of the CWA. Rain chances will effectively
end by or prior to 18Z this afternoon across the western zones.

At the surface, a wavy, quasi-stationary front was located slightly
north of the CWA, extending along a line from SXU-CVN and bending
northeastward directly along the HWY-60 corridor into NW OK. Warm
theta-e advection remains intact area-wide, with a stark contrast on
the north side of the stalled front where east-northeasterly winds
are present. However, despite the well-defined corridor of low-level
convergence, the combination of the decoupling boundary-layer and
loss of sufficient condensate from the entrainment within the lower
theta surfaces, the development of any shallow convection from this
quasi-stationary front is futile. NBM PoPs were adjusted to reflect
this thinking, with low/20-percent PoPs delineated for portions of
the western zones through 18Z.

As the meridional waveguide to the west becomes sharply cyclonic,
the quasi-stationary front will transition into a warm front and
lift northward towards the I-70 corridor, causing the easterly winds
across the CWA to veer southeastward by the late morning hours
beneath a sharp cap/warm nose. Full insolation as the mid-level
cloud debris shifts northwestward will boost high temperatures into
the lower 80s on the Caprock and into the middle 80s in the Rolling
Plains. Benign weather will continue tonight, and the combination of
a clear sky and diminishing winds will maximize the effects of
radiational cooling. Low temperatures Wednesday morning will fall
into the lower-middle 50s area-wide.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

The forecast for the extended period remains on track, with little
change necessitated other than continuing the manual addition of low
PoPs across the Caprock for Thursday. The troughing over the Rocky
Mountains will begin to deamplify Wednesday, as the closed low
rotates northeastward ahead of the exit-region of the quasi-zonal
extension of the Pacific jet stream translates towards the Pacific
Northwest. This will result in an eventual phasing of the jet
stream, with the positively-tilted trough becoming open and nearly
inverted along its southwestern periphery over the northeastern
Pacific Ocean. Southerly winds will steadily increase in speed
Wednesday into Thursday, as the ejecting trough maintains leeward
pressure falls across the entire Great Plains.

Low PoPs have once again been manually drawn across most of the
Caprock for Thursday, as there remains a consensus among the global
NWP data for the development of thunderstorms along or ahead of a
Pacific cold front moving towards the region. It is possible that a
diffuse dryline forms ahead of the Pacific cold front, and should
this occur, the corridor of warm theta-e advection will be narrow,
with a limited amount of time for cells to develop along the dryline
before it is overtaken by the front. However, prospects for at least
a couple of fast-moving storms are forecast to improve from the
frontal forcing, especially during the latter half of the day
Thursday. The severe weather threat is low, but confidence remains
high enough to maintain an official delineation of 20-percent, or
slight chance, PoPs for most of the Caprock Thursday.

The Pacific cold front will slowly progress through the CWA Friday,
as it will remain beneath the belt of broadly cyclonic flow. Farther
west, a compact shortwave trough will translate through the base of
the amplifying, northern-stream trough pivoting over the northern
Great Plains. The arrival of this shortwave trough atop the Pacific
cold front should result in the development of storms near the 100th
meridian Friday afternoon and evening, but confidence remains low on
far west the initiation of storms will occur, and there is only a
sliver of low PoPs clipping the locales along 100th meridian for
this prognostication. A westward expansion of PoPs in the Rolling
Plains may be necessary in the forthcoming cycles as global NWP
guidance converges on timing of the ejection of this fast-moving
shortwave trough and whether or not the CWA is dry slotted.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Some light fog is possible at Childress this morning along with
some east and north of the KPVW.  Otherwise VFR is expected.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...26