577
FXUS64 KLUB 170501
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1201 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1201 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

 - Continued warm into the weekend until a cooldown on Monday.

 - Storm chances return Friday evening near the NM border, then
   envelop the forecast area from Saturday afternoon through
   Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

After a few sprinkles exit north of Parmer and Castro counties in
the next hour or so, dry weather dominates the short term forecast
thanks to a broad 600 decameter high relocating from eastern
Tennessee to Texarkana by Thursday night. This will keep the brunt
of monsoon moisture in Arizona and New Mexico with large-scale
subsidence expected locally. Despite rising heights and thicknesses,
high temps won`t get out of hand thanks to higher dewpoints limiting
deeper mixing, and also recent soaking rainfall (mainly on the
Caprock) that maintains cooling from evapotranspiration. As such,
highs on the Caprock in the upper 80s and low 90s seem on track,
with sub-100 highs off the Caprock where slightly higher dewpoints
will reside through peak heating. This moisture will keep lows on
the mild side once again for Thursday night under mostly clear skies
and light southerly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

As an upper low over northern California churns slowly east on
Friday, deeper southwest flow over the Desert Southwest will carry a
shortwave trough across New Mexico. This process will send a band
of monsoon moisture toward the TX/NM border by the evening complete
with some low PoPs. These rain chances improve considerably by
Saturday afternoon and especially the evening as the axis of
moisture overspreads the Caprock within broad troughing. This
abundance of background ascent with PWAT anomalies pushing +0.8" and
potential for training precip in deep SW flow suggests some heavy
rain and flooding could redevelop and continue overnight. Additional
deep convection is possible Sunday, but this time favoring areas off
the Caprock along and east of the upper trough axis. Models have
sadly rejected a cold front for Sunday, so this keeps highs well
above normal all weekend. Provided this cold front reaches our
area on Monday, more PoPs are justified even with weak ridging
aloft on the heels of Sunday`s trough. The upper flow then backs
more southwesterly as the monsoonal fetch deepens courtesy of a
low/trough over SOCAL. Ensembles favor a cool and wet pattern
through Wednesday, although there is concern for much of this
moisture to hang up farther west within deeper meridional flow.
This implies PoPs in later forecasts may exhibit a sharper
gradient from W-E either in or somewhere near our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...12