Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
820 FXUS64 KLUB 011730 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 - Continued warm and dry until Wednesday evening when a cold front may spark a few thunderstorms. - Shower and storm chances expand Friday through Sunday with another cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 The persistent upper ridging centered over the Intermountain West will continue its stubborn streak and is expected to remain stagnant through the short term package. At the same time, upper troughing has taken over eastern CONUS. North to northwesterly flow aloft will prevail as the Texas Panhandle sits between the two upper disturbances. Light northerly surface winds will prevail through the afternoon today, but are expected to veer to the southeast through this evening and overnight. Temperatures will continue to increase through the afternoon, however the northerly winds will keep highs to around or just below seasonal normal. Previous forecasts indicated slight chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening, however current model runs keep our region dry. We are more inclined to believe this with a dry atmosphere (PWATs below 1 inch region wide and warming mid-level temperatures), therefore kept NBM PoPs of near zero this evening. Any showers or thunderstorms that develop are expected to remain to the west of our region over New Mexico, however one or two isolated storms cannot be ruled out. Tonight will be mild with mostly clear skies and lows in the upper 50s to 60s. A surface high will translate south through Kansas early Tuesday morning resulting in surface winds veering to the north through late morning and early afternoon. A weak push of cooler air with the northerly wind shift will keep highs tomorrow in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 The extended pattern opens with longwave ridging parked from British Columbia through the Upper Rio Grande resulting in dry and stable NNW flow locally. As a compact and vigorous low descends from the Canadian Prairies into the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday, an associated cold front will be shoved our way under stronger NW flow and reach our panhandle counties as soon as Wednesday evening. Although PWATs will be running about 1/3" below normal, strong pre-frontal heating marked by highs in the mid 90s combined with dewpoints in the 50s suggests convective temps would be within reach thanks to minimal CIN. Similar to last Thursday`s backdoor FROPA when dewpoints jumped into the upper 60s in the post-frontal flow, it appears this setup has similar potential which could sustain storms even longer after FROPA. Opted to smooth and expand NBM`s 20 PoPs for Wednesday evening over a larger portion of our northernmost counties. Cooler northeasterlies on the heels of Wednesday evening`s front look short lived as surface ridging peels away on Thursday ahead of SSW winds and highs in the 90s once again - except over our far northeastern CWA where cooler southeasterlies should loiter. The upper level pattern by Thursday features the base of the ridge pivoting over the South Plains which advects deeper subsidence and hotter thicknesses our way. NBM`s highs on the Caprock for Thursday look a bit soft for this otherwise toasty setup and we may need to nudge these up further in later forecasts. Friday still features the mid-level ridge atop our area, though it is progged to be decaying in advance of a plume of subtropical moisture and cooler temps. Meanwhile to our north, another fast impulse in NW flow is progged to drag a cold front through the TX Panhandle on Friday while serving as a focus for afternoon storms over the northern half of our forecast area. This boundary may park nearby through the weekend during the arrival of richer subtropical (potentially tropical) moisture at some point. Much of this moisture contribution hinges on an eastern Pacific tropical system that is merely in its infancy as of this writing. The latest GFS remains bullish with this tropical plume overspreading the South Plains from Saturday night into Sunday with PWAT anomalies up to +0.6", while its ensembles and the ECMWF embrace a drier theme. It`s worth noting that some models keep this system offshore of the Baja through the weekend, therefore NBM`s 20-40 PoPs seem reasonable for now as this captures the envelope of uncertainty. Regardless of rain, lower thicknesses and increased cloud cover by this weekend favor cooler highs in the 80s across the board. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Winds will remain light and variable through Tuesday afternoon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...10