239
FXUS64 KLUB 251757
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1257 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1255 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

 - Light rainfall early this afternoon will gradually diminish,
   with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible from late
   afternoon through tonight. Pockets of heavy rainfall could lead
   to localized flooding.

 - Warmer and quieter weekend before an upper pattern change
   brings cooler temperatures and daily precipitation chances next
   week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Heavy thunderstorms have given way to light rain showers as of noon.
While a few isolated thunderstorms are possible through the rest of
the afternoon, the general trend will be for lingering rain showers
to gradually diminish. This does put the current forecast high temps
in jeopardy for this afternoon as rain and cloud cover are keeping
areas on the Caprock in the 60s. It is yet to be seen if cloud cover
will give way to sunshine before peak heating ends. Though mid/upper
level dry air is working its way into the FA, low level moisture and
clouds remain. The incoming dry will likely inhibit widespread
shower and thunderstorm chances for late this afternoon into the
evening, but an upper shortwave currently visible on WV imagery
could provide enough lift to allow for isolated to scattered storm
development thanks to increased surface moisture. Any storms that do
develop will capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. A
lull in precip is expected Saturday as upper ridging builds over the
Central and Southern Plains. Many models, however, do have some
convection possible by late Saturday afternoon across our
southeastern zones along a theta-e axis. A slight chance mention has
been kept in the forecast for the time being. Mostly clear skies and
the incoming upper ridge will allow afternoon highs to warm into the
80s and 90s Saturday afternoon.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Upper ridging will take hold of the region late weekend into early
next week and will give a lull in precip chances while also warming
afternoon highs into the mid 80s to mid 90s Sunday and Monday.
Unlike just a couple of weeks ago, warm temps will only be
temporary. An upper shortwave trough is expected to break from an
upper low currently over the Bering Sea and move into the Pacific
Coast as a closed low by late Sunday. This closed low will deepen as
it moves southeastward into the Desert Southwest Monday and Tuesday.
During this time, the upper low will begin to siphon moisture from
Hurricane Polo in the eastern Pacific with Polo eventually phasing
with the upper low. This will greatly enhance moisture availability
as the upper low begins moving eastward across Arizona and New Mexico
by mid next week. Depending on the speed and timing of the upper
low, this could result in widespread heavy rainfall for much of the
region Wednesday and Thursday. This forecast is still too far out to
begin highlighting hydro concerns, and there is still a fair amount
of uncertainty with the timing and location of the upper low. It
does, however, bare watching for now. Another factor in the forecast
would be the potential for a cold front during this time frame which
would greatly enhance lift. What is more certain is the continuance
of fall like temperatures through much of mid to late next week
thanks to this system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

The large shield of rain (and thunderstorms earlier) that has been
affecting PVW and LBB the past few hours will gradually come to an
end early this afternoon. A few periods of MVFR, perhaps even IFR,
could occur early on, though VFR will become the rule by mid-late
afternoon. Farther east, CDS is about to experience what is left
of the rain shield, with periods of showers possible the next few
hours, though VFR is expected to prevail. Late this afternoon into
tonight isolated to scattered convection will be possible. Confidence
in the timing, location and coverage of tonight`s activity is low,
and we have left any mention out of the TAFs for now. Outside of
convective influences, VFR and light winds are expected this
evening into Saturday morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...23