984
FXUS64 KLUB 151129
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
629 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

 - Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon and
   evening bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall.

 - Temperatures will undergo a slow cooling trend through the end
   of the week.

 - A wet pattern may emerge this weekend into early next week with
   much cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Much more widespread convective activity is expected on Tuesday
afternoon and evening. An upper level ridge over the southeastern
CONUS will continue to edge eastward allowing for an increase in mid-
level moisture overhead. Flow aloft will therefore veer to the
southwest with possibly a weak short wave trough moving through New
Mexico on Tuesday afternoon. However, large scale ascent looks to be
fairly weak with this weak southwest flow. Much of the lift will
come from the lower levels of the atmosphere as a surface pressure
trough slides eastward into the area from New Mexico. Later in the
afternoon, a cold front sliding southward through the Texas
Panhandle will further increase the low level ascent. Convective
initiation is expected along a line from southwest to northeast on
the caprock within a rich low level theta-e field. Warm temperatures
in the mid-90s will again bring a deep boundary layer and relatively
high cloud bases. Increased moisture and cooler mid-level
temperatures will garner stronger available instability. Deeply
mixed layer instability will be on the order of 1000 to 2000 J/kg.
Weak shear will prevent storms from becoming organized but will
still likely be able to potentially produce strong to severe wind
gusts. The other main threat from storms will be the potential for
heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding. Mixing ratio and
precipitable water values will surge close to the 99th percentile.
The strong available moisture and weak shear will allow any storms
that develop to possibly dump significant rainfall over localized
areas. Low level jet winds will ramp up Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning around 40-45kt. Rain showers with some thunder
will therefore continue through the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The upper level ridge over the southeastern CONUS will begin to
shift back westward beginning on Wednesday. This will effectively
return us to convective chances closer to the Texas/New Mexico state
line on Wednesday and Thursday. By late in the week, the retreating
ridge will significantly weaken with increasing troughing over the
southwestern CONUS. A number of short wave troughs within the
southwest flow may bring periodic rain chances this weekend through
early next week. The increased chances of rainfall and a possible
cold front this weekend will bring much lower temperatures back to
more seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the day with breezy
southerly winds developing at all terminals this morning with
speeds around 10-15KTs. By the late afternoon, isolated to
scattered -TSRA is expected to approach both KPVW and KLBB
terminals and linger through much of the evening. Periods of heavy
rainfall may lead to reduced VSBYs and localized gusty winds at
time which may threaten to bring brief MVFR CIGs at times.
Although confidence is low, a few showers and storms may attempt
to enter KCDS terminal, though there is too much uncertainty to
warrant a TAF mention at this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...12