806
FXUS64 KLUB 262304
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
604 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

 - Showers and a few thunderstorms continue across most of the
   region the rest of today through tonight.

 - Drier and warmer weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

 - An unsettled weather pattern with additional rain chances
   returns Friday through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Another damp and dreary day is ongoing across the region as we
continue to sit beneath an anomalous plume of rich mid/upper level
moisture and relatively strong flow aloft. Water vapor channel
imagery highlights an impressive zone of synoptic-scale ascent
positioned over West TX at midday with a well-defined shortwave
impulse seen lifting north out of the Permian Basin. As a result,
widespread rain showers and a few thunderstorms have continued
throughout the morning and will persist well into this afternoon.
The highest confidence in measurable rainfall for the rest of today
is near the I-27 corridor and areas off the Caprock as the
aforementioned wave tracks northeastward. As of midday, precipitation
has generally tapered off over western portions of the Caprock,
but there is still some potential for the redevelopment of additional
showers or storms this afternoon given the rich moisture and
strong forcing in place. Periods of heavy rain still remain
possible especially given PWATs in the 1.2-1.4" range, but a lack
of instability throughout the column is expected to generally
keep precipitation intensity limited overall. Forecast confidence
decreases headed into this evening, given uncertainty regarding
how the current batch of precipitation evolves and potential for
additional scattered development to continue this evening into
tonight as a secondary wave tracks over the region. In general
though, the current expectation is for rain showers to decrease in
coverage from southwest to northeast throughout the course of
tonight.

Tuesday is expected to start on the dreary side yet again with
plentiful cloud cover and some fog in place through the first half
of the morning. Lingering showers off the Caprock should dissipate
before midday, but overall dry conditions are expected on Tuesday as
the weekend system finally departs to our east. Cloud cover will
gradually clear by early afternoon with temperatures currently
expected to warm into the low 70s, but highs may need to be adjusted
downward in future forecasts should clouds be slower to clear than
currently expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Wednesday currently looks dry across the region as weak upper level
ridging briefly builds overhead, with temperatures also set to warm
near or back above seasonal normals. Things already begin to
change on Thursday though, as deepening cyclonic flow aloft over
the western CONUS focuses a series of southern stream disturbances
over our region through the rest of the week. Models remain very
consistent tracking the first of these waves overhead during the
late week period, with chances for widespread showers and storms
arriving late Thursday and continuing through at least Friday.
Model spread increases thereafter, resulting in increased forecast
uncertainty heading into the weekend. Even so, consensus still
favors continuation of a generally unsettled pattern with rain
chances persisting through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Ceilings have improved to VFR at all terminals, although SCT007
lingers at KCDS and could go broken at times during the first few
hours of the period, especially if lingering showers impact the
terminal. The improvements are expected to be short-lived,
however, with MVFR ceilings returning late this evening, and IFR
ceilings possible towards daybreak through late Tues morning.
Patchy fog is possible in the morning, but not enough confidence
to include in the TAF. While some lingering showers can`t be ruled
out overnight, coverage should be limited. From late Tues morning
into the afternoon, cloud bases will rise to VFR and the cloud
deck will become scattered.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...24