277
FXUS64 KLUB 150707
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
207 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 139 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

 - Slight thunderstorm chances off the Caprock this morning.

 - Warm again this afternoon, with a very slight chance of pop-up
   thunderstorms.

 - Unseasonably hot conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday,
   with highs nearing heat advisory level conditions.

 - A slight chance for thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday
   evenings.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Warm and muggy conditions overnight combined with low-level flow
turning slightly SE will bring chances of thunderstorms mainly off
the Caprock this morning. As with last night, the HRRR remains most
aggressive, while other large scale models keep QPF to the east of
our CWA. The severe threat would be low, but any storms that do form
could produce large hail and brief high winds. Above average
temperatures will continue today with a ~595 Dm upper high to the
SW. Highs will again climb into the mid-to-upper 90s. This will
constitute a stronger cap which will inhibit much thunderstorm
development in the afternoon/evening hours. PoPs have been largely
brought down below 15%, however an isolated storm cannot be
completely ruled out and would most likely occur near the TX/NM
border. Any storms would dissipate into the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Not much of a change was made to the long term forecast, with the
upper level ridge and area of associated high pressure expected to
build and amplify over the Desert Southwest and into portions of
West Texas through as an upper level shortwave begins tracking
through the Plains. This will lead to much warmer weather through
early next week, with temperatures nearing Heat Advisory level
conditions. Temperatures will warm just below advisory level on
Monday; however, temperatures really begin to ramp up on Tuesday
where the hottest temperatures of the week are expected to occur. At
the surface, a lee surface low over southeastern CO is expected to
dive into portions of the Texas Panhandle Tuesday afternoon as a
shortwave trough around H5 begins to move across the Southern
Plains. As this happens, pressure tendencies will rise around 4 mb
every 3 hours which in combination with forecast soundings across
the FA depicting a well mixed boundary layer up to 600mb suggest
breezy to low end windy conditions will develop Tuesday afternoon.
NBM wind speeds continue to be underdone, so went ahead and
blended in stronger wind speeds around 20 to 25 mph using the NBM
75th percentile. Additionally, wind gusts to 30 mph are also
expected which may lead to patchy blowing dust across portions of
the FA. The upper level ridge looks to become suppressed late
Tuesday, which in return will allow for the upper level shortwave
to pass a weak cold front through the region overnight Tuesday
into early Wednesday morning. This may also lead to a slight
chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night however the confidence in
this remains rather low given the positioning of the upper level
high. Although still hot, temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler on Wednesday thanks to the passing front with highs in the
lower 90s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and around
100 degrees across the southeastern Rolling Plains. Once again,
models continue to suggest the chance of a few thunderstorms late
Wednesday but the likelihood in this remains rather low given the
location of the upper level high. Will go ahead and maintain NBM
slight chance PoPs Tuesday and Wednesday for now until we see
better agreement amongst models. Through the end of the work week
we will see height and thickness values begin to increase across
the region as the upper level ridge begins to amplify once again
across the Desert Southwest leading to the continuation of hot
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms at all sites this
morning as well as this afternoon/evening. The morning round is
the slightly higher of the two chances, however confidence remains
too low to include in the current TAFs. Breezy SE winds gusting to
20-25 kts are possible this afternoon. Otherwise generally light
southerly winds will persist. VFR will continue outside of any
storms.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...19