207
FXUS64 KLUB 271840
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
140 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 139 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

 - Warm conditions will continue through this afternoon.

 - Tropical moisture Tuesday through Wednesday will bring
   widespread, potentially heavy, rain chances and cooler
   temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Despite a light northerly winds, upper ridging will help keep us
warm today with highs climbing into the mid 80s to upper 90s. The
axis of the upper ridge will remain overhead through tonight before
moving east of the region Monday. This will still help to keep
Monday on the warm side with very similar high temps as today. Our
future storm system is now visible on WV imagery, being located just
off the Northwest Pacific Coast. This upper trough is expected to
transition to a closed low by this evening as it moves onshore. The
upper low is still on track to take a tour of California Monday,
being centered near the LA area by Monday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

The aforementioned upper low will begin to push eastward by early
Tuesday and move over the Desert Southwest through the day Tuesday.
The overall potential for heavy rainfall late Tuesday into Wednesday
is still there, but there still is much to be desired from model
consensus. Many models, including their ensembles, still bring heavy
rainfall into the FA by late Tuesday beginning around sunset. The
GFS and GDPS are the most aggressive with QPF. The ECMWF has come to
be the most pessimistic, at least as of the 00Z run. It is roughly 6
hours slower than the GFS with the travel speed of the upper low,
and pulls the upper low further north as it crosses New Mexico. The
path of the upper low will have a significant effect on the
potential for heavy rainfall, but this will take another day or two
to determine which path is more likely. The forecast will continue
to side with wetter guidance given the larger consensus.
Additionally, moisture will be very abundant given the influx of
both moisture from the Gulf and from the tropical systems in the
eastern Pacific. This will supply PWATs as high as 2+ inches, an
anomaly of at least +1 inches, and allow for efficient rain
production. We will continue to hold of on the issuance of a Flood
Watch until confidence grows. The upper low will stall over the
Southern Plains by late next week as an upper high builds over the
southeastern CONUS. This should allow for additional light rain
showers across the region. Models diverge greatly with the upper
pattern next weekend and beyond. The GFS builds a large ridge over
the western CONUS while the ECMWF has more zonal-like flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Light winds and VFR will be the rule this TAF cycle. The only
possible exception will be towards daybreak Monday when the
atmosphere near the ground approaches saturation, increasing the
potential for a few pockets of fog/stratus development. The risk
for a brief period of sub-VFR conditions will be greatest at the
northern terminals (CDS and PVW), though even here the overall
chance is too low for inclusion in the TAFs.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...23