564
FXUS64 KLUB 271742
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1242 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

 - Chances for showers and thuderstorms return Thursday evening,
   mainly across the Rolling Plains.

 - There is an increasing potential for thunderstorms Friday and
   through the weekend across the entire forecast area.

 - A few storms may be severe, with flash flooding possible,
   especially Friday night and Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Skies will continue to clear across the region this afternoon as an
upper ridge moves over the area. Winds will gradually veer more
southerly through the remainder of the day and combined with the
clear skies, high temperatures will return to near average,
generally in the low-to-mid 90s. Quiet conditions will continue into
the evening, with southerly winds remaining near 10 mph helping to
keep lows on the mild side in the mid 60s to near 70. Winds will
continue to veer to a more SW direction Thursday, allowing for even
warmer temperatures on the order of about 3-5 degrees. An embedded
shortwave propagating through aforementioned ridge centered over the
Rockies will approach the CWA during the afternoon hours. Its
associated cold front will bring easterly upslope flow and bring the
usual shower and thunderstorm chances. Models are coming into
further consensus that these will predominately occur across the
Rolling Plains during the evening. Severe weather is not expected,
however a few storms may produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty
winds. The front should largely be moved out after midnight, with
stability in its wake bringing a brief lull in the active pattern by
Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Thunderstorm chances will wane Thursday evening as the cold front,
which will be slowing down, moves to the southwest of the CWA. In
the mid/upper-levels, the amplified, subtropical ridge will be
centered over the TX Big Bend, with the anticyclonic vortex
extending through 200 mb. The core of the intense 250 mb jet streak
will also be translating over the central Great Plains, with the
right-entrance region gradually shifting southward and over W TX by
Friday afternoon. Cloud debris is expected to linger throughout the
day, but diabatic heating will be sufficient enough to boost high
temperatures in the middle-upper 80s area-wide, as the post-frontal
modification of the airmass will be negligible. Several series of
shortwave perturbations will translate around the apex of the
anticyclonically-curved jet streak, which are expected to generate
clusters of storms across the higher terrain of NM. Southeasterly
(upslope) flow beneath the amplified belt of northwesterly flow
aloft will allow the clusters of storms to propagate along the
thickness gradient, with indications of a potential MCS to propagate
southeastward into the CWA Friday night and last through the early
morning hours Saturday. Strong-to-severe-caliber wind gusts will be
possible late Friday evening before storms root above the decoupling
boundary-layer and become elevated. Locally heavy rainfall will lead
to the potential for localized flash flooding, but downshear
propagation vectors near 30 kt will maintain forward-propagation of
any clusters and/or the MCS. Showers and storms are also forecast to
linger through the predawn hours Saturday, especially if a MCV
develops, which would maintain moist ascent in the low-levels. The
airmass will also become overturned and the potential for lightning
may wane entirely, with mainly rain showers lingering across the CWA
Saturday morning, and this is reflected in the official forecast.

The subtropical ridge will begin to deamplify Saturday, as a Rex
Block begins to evolve over the far northeastern Pacific Ocean
following the completion of an anticyclonic wave breaking event in
the polar latitudes. A well-defined PV anomaly is forecast to eject
over the Pacific Northwest, while the longwave trough situated over
the northeastern U.S. finally begins to pivot eastward as a result
of the breaking wave. The net result will be a modulation of the
subtropical ridge and its attendant jet streak, which will be
effectively dampened into a quasi-zonal state, positioning the CWA
beneath the right-entrance region to the 250 mb jet streak and along
the mid-level thickness gradient. Widespread cloud debris is
forecast Saturday, and will prevent the full effects of diabatic
heating from being realized. High temperatures were lowered a couple
of degrees from the NBM, with highs in the lower-middle 80s forecast
area-wide. Meanwhile, the cold front that previously moved through
the CWA days prior will maintain its quasi-stationary state and
slosh into W TX beneath the deamplifying ridge as lee cyclogenesis
occurs near the Raton Mesa. By Saturday afternoon, storms are once
again forecast to form to the west of the NM state line as another
vorticity lobe rotates over the southern Rocky Mountains.

There is an increasing potential for a heavy rain event Saturday
night across the entire CWA. The combination of the right-entrance
region to the 250 mb jet streak; west-northwesterly, mid-level flow
near 30 kt; the superposition of the quasi-stationary front; and a
corridor of recovering theta-e air within the inflow-layer continues
to boost confidence in the potential for organized clusters of
storms, potentially in the form of another MCS, Saturday night and
into early Sunday morning. The table setting rainfall event from the
previous night will have a direct effect on an improved potential
for flash flooding late Saturday, with an overnight flash flooding
event possible as the system propagates towards the southeast across
the CWA. While slightly beyond the scope of the mesoscale NWP
domain, the orientation of the downshear propagation vectors suggest
a similar forward-speed will be possible compared to Friday night,
with the potential for the system to attain a more-southward
propagation component during the overnight hours Saturday into
Sunday. NBM PoPs are high, but reflect the considerable agreement
among the global NWP guidance, especially for Saturday night, where
PoPs >80 percent are outlined for most of the Caprock. The timing of
this episode will be refined with the subsequent forecast cycles, as
the prior convective events and related mesoscale boundaries
interacting with the quasi-stationary front will govern the overall
extent of storms Saturday night. PoPs are forecast to dwindle by the
end of the weekend into early next week as the subtropical ridge
amplifies over the Intermountain West, followed by a warm-up.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Lingering low-level stratus continues to slowly erode in proximity
of KCDS, with VFR conditions expected to return by mid afternoon.
VFR conditions are expected thereafter for all TAF sites through the
end of the period.

Tomerlin

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...99/26