041
FXUS64 KLUB 010510
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1210 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1208 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

 - Cooler Thursday and much cooler Friday with scattered showers.

 - Gradually warming, but generally cooler and drier conditions
   this weekend into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

The system that has caused all of the recent active weather is
finally departing the region to the northeast tonight. Northerly
winds will build in behind the associated cold front on Thursday. A
wide range of high temperatures are expected, ranging from near 70
over the far southwestern Panhandle to the mid 80s off the Caprock.
Latest models, especially NAM are more bullish with regards to
showers developing on the backside of the departing trough late
Thursday into Friday morning. Periods of heavier showers are
possible, however given the timing and much more cool, stable
airmass, thunderstorms are not of a concern.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Cloudy skies and scattered showers into the afternoon on Friday will
allow for some of the coolest high temperatures we have seen in some
time with highs only reaching the mid-to-upper 60s on the Caprock
and low 70s off the Caprock. Breezy NW winds in the morning may gust
to 30 mph. A disturbance will stall to our south and east this
weekend, however long range models look to keep any associated
moisture outside of the forecast area. Highs will increase a few
degrees each day starting Saturday into mid-next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Winds turn to northeasterly into the day on Thursday, sustained
between 10-15 kts. Cloud cover increases late in the period,
overspreading the region from northwest to southeast. MVFR
ceilings are possible, but may hold off on reaching the terminals
until just after 06z Fri. Scattered showers and patchy fog are
also possible towards the end of the period, mainly at KPVW/KCDS,
but potential was too low to include in the TAF at this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24