Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
876 FXUS64 KLUB 172314 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 614 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 611 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 - Quick-hitting showers are forecast to move over portions of the South and Rolling Plains tonight into Saturday morning. - Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Saturday, with a better potential Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Southwesterly flow will continue to bring above average temperatures today, with highs again generally in the mid-to-upper 80s along with mostly sunny skies. An elongated positively tilted trough will track eastward out of the Desert Southwest overnight into Saturday morning. Associated vorticity/mid-level forcing is quite impressive and has remained consistent from yesterday`s model runs. CAMs remain more aggressive showing associated QPF in the PVA region, which would tend to be favored in this setup as opposed to the larger-scale models. NBM did catch up a bit, however PoPs have still been slightly increased and pulled back farther west. Given the time of day, thunder is not expected for the most part and much of the shower activity should move out of the area after the noon hour with skies clearing thereafter. These should also move fast enough to not yield any significant rainfall totals, although as always locally higher amounts are possible. Daytime highs will be a few degrees cooler than today and may fall faster in the evening depending on the exact timing of the wind shift from west to north. Compression ahead of this cold front will lead to breezy conditions, especially in the afternoon, with gusts approaching 30 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 The coolest cold front of the season will move into the FA Saturday evening/night from the north. Sunday morning lows will depend on how quickly, and where, the surface high sets up behind the front. The sooner the surface high moves overhead before sunrise Sunday, the cooler the temperatures. As of current, our north and northwestern zones are favored with morning lows possibly dropping into the mid 30s across our northwestern zones. MOS guidance is in fairly decent agreement with low temps and was reflected by lowering Sunday`s lows from the NBM. Winds will veer to the south to southwest by Sunday afternoon as a surface lee trough develops ahead of an upper trough over the Central Rockies. Winds will remain fairly breezy into Sunday evening and night as a surface low develops from the lee trough and moves across the Central/Northern Plains. This could result in slightly elevated fire weather danger Sunday. Fire danger will help be offset some by the cooler high temps. Solid elevated fire danger will be more likely Monday as surface winds become westerly ahead of another cold front, dropping dewpoints into the mid/upper 20s to low 30s with highs reaching into the mid 80s/low 90s and 20 foot winds around 15 mph for many areas on the Caprock. The warm temps will be temporary as the cold front cools highs back to the 70s Tuesday. Upper ridging will build back over the region by mid week and will allow highs to warm back into the 80s Wednesday. Models are in decent agreement with bringing a progressive upper shortwave/low across the Four Corners Wednesday night into the Central/Southern Plains Thursday. Currently models are trying to bring precip into the forecast with this system, but these systems are dry for the FA more times than not, especially when they are fast moving with anything other than a negative tilt (a neutral tilt is currently progged). && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 VFR with a round of SHRA (a few TS are possible) arriving before daybreak and exiting after a couple hours or so. WNW winds will turn breezy by midday with frequent gusts around 25 knots at all terminals. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....51 AVIATION...93