443
FXUS64 KLUB 261721
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1221 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The center of an upper-level ridge will remain across New Mexico
today which will keep our forecast area within northerly flow aloft.
While thickness values will remain fairly constant today we are
starting off warmer this morning than we did yesterday morning hence
high temperatures will also be a few degrees warmer. This means high
temperatures above the century mark can be expected area wide. The
hottest temperatures are expected across the Rolling Plains which is
also where the highest dewpoints will be located hence heat index
values as high as 108 degrees will be possible across the eastern
Rolling Plains and far southeastern Texas Panhandle therefore a Heat
Advisory has been issued for this area from noon until 8 pm today.

While heat is the main story there is also the potential for showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A weak cold front is,
as of 3 am, located across northern Kansas and is expected to
continue slowly moving south through the day. This front should be
located near I-40 by late this afternoon and serve as a forcing
mechanism for storm development. Farther south across our forecast
area, forcing will be lacking however forecast soundings indicate
that the capping inversion should erode by late afternoon across the
forecast area. While deep-layer moisture will be lacking there may
be sufficient moisture for isolated thunderstorm development within
an environment supporting up to 1500 J/Kg of MLCAPE but shear will
be on the meager side. While supercells are not currently expected,
a well mixed boundary layer would support the potential for damaging
straight line winds and brief heavy rainfall with any thunderstorm
that develops. Latest high resolution guidance has been hinting that
the far southeast Texas Panhandle into the northern Rolling Plains
(where better low-level moisture will be present) may have the best
chance at seeing this late afternoon thunderstorm potential.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold
front in the Panhandle back into the higher terrain of northeastern
New Mexico. This activity should congeal into a line of storms and
move south into the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and
northwestern South Plains this evening. By the time this activity
makes into our area though the boundary layer will be stabilizing so
storms will be on a weakening trend hence how far into our area
these storms make it remain uncertain at this time. Otherwise quiet
and warm conditions are expected overnight into Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

No changes have been made to the long term forecast this morning,
with the main message still being very hot temperatures through
Friday. Upper level ridging is expected to remain locked in place
with the center of the associated 592mb dam high pressure parked
just south of the FA Thursday afternoon. The upper level ridge will
then begin to flatten Friday as a strong upper level trough begins
to dig into portions of the northern High Plains. With that being
said, flow aloft will remain relatively weak as it becomes more
zonal through the end of the work week.

Unfortunately the long term outlook does not suggest a big cool down
for the region anytime soon with upper 90s and triple digit heat
expected through the unforeseeable future. These unseasonably warm
temperatures will lead to heat index values around or slightly
above 105 degrees (Heat Advisory criteria) through Saturday.
Breezy southwesterly winds are expected across the region Friday
as the pressure gradient begins to tighten from a strong lee low
tracking into northeastern NM. This in combination with westerly
flow aloft and increased thickness values will lead to very warm
temperatures on Friday. 850mb temperatures around 30C to 34C
suggest triple digit values from 100F to 105F across the FA. The
weekend will allow for a short and small reprieve in the triple
digit heat as the upper level ridge breaks down and thickness
values decrease. However, temperatures will only cool by a few
degrees with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s still expected.
By the beginning of next week, the triple digit heat will make its
grand return as the upper level high and ridge builds back over
the N.TX/S.OK region.

A plume of monsoonal moisture wrapping around the center of the high
pressure system, dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, and ensemble
PWATs ranging from 1.25" to 1.80" suggest an abnormally moist
environment this weekend. A weak front is expected to track into the
northern Texas Panhandle Friday night where it will then stall just
north of the FA or in the vicinity of the far southwestern Texas
Panhandle. This in addition to a disturbance in the flow aloft over
eastern NM may serve as enough lift for thunderstorm development
this weekend. However, the coverage of storms remain uncertain with
deterministic models varying on the position of the frontal
boundary. If this front remains more to our north, we could see a
drier outcome unfold through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue at all terminals through
tomorrow. There is a potential for thunderstorms to develop
northwest of LBB and PVW. However, confidence remains low that
any airports will be impacted, so have left mentions out of the
TAF at this time. Check density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ026-032-038-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...DF