668
FXUS64 KLUB 081700
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1200 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

 - Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, some with
   damaging wind gusts.

 - Hot temperatures through Thursday with additional chances for
   late-day storms.

 - Weak cold front Thursday night followed by another front this
   weekend with greater chances for storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Following some morning stratus, ample moisture to the tune of low 70
dewpoints was beginning to mix out over the western South Plains as
of 11 AM along a developing dryline. The dryline won`t have much
push today as winds throughout the low and mid and levels are quite
weak at 15 knots or less, so by mid-afternoon this boundary should
reside near a Morton to Silverton line. Although weak, southwesterly
flow aloft is host to a subtle shortwave trough evident on water
vapor imagery in far southeast NM late this morning. As both this
impulse and an upper jet reach the western South Plains by 3-5 PM,
the stage should be set for convective initiation along the dryline
as CIN erodes to near zero from strong heating and modest background
cooling/ascent. Confidence in storms is higher, so isolated coverage
was added from 4 PM to 10 PM which may prove too conservative based
on some CAMs. Similar to yesterday, tall inverted-v soundings with
LCLs around 9000 feet and CAPEs of 1500 J/kg are shown to support
downdraft CAPEs of nearly 2000 J/kg, so microbursts are once again
in the cards until storms taper after sunset.

Overnight, an upper high over East Texas peels farther away allowing
our heights and thicknesses to draw lower for Tuesday. This will
keep high temps 5-10 degrees lower than today as the moist sector
expands into eastern NM keeping the dryline well away from us. Along
with this deeper moist sector comes a threat for more low stratus
around daybreak Tuesday as dewpoints climb to around 70, before
mixing out into the lower 60s in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Tuesday evening opens with a low chance for storms in eastern NM
drifting east and possibly affecting our southwest Panhandle
counties. This feat could be aided by improved steering flow of
around 20 knots south of a shortwave trough grazing our area, but
most guidance keeps precip well to our north and northwest. As winds
aloft veer more westerly for Wednesday, a low-level thermal ridge
will overspread the forecast area resulting in hotter temps and a
return of the dryline. Most models are very muted with convection
along the dryline despite strong heating and negligible CIN, so
later forecasts may need to consider some low PoPs. Weakly cyclonic
westerly flow remains with us on Thursday and PoPs trend higher
particularly later in the day as a weak cold front arrives courtesy
of a stronger trough rotating across the Corn Belt. The ECMWF is
faster with both of these features which would support cooler highs
on Thursday, but for now highs in the upper 90s and lower 100s
remain on tap. This cold front should stall nearby on Friday and
focus additional chances for storms until a stronger front fuels
even greater rain chances later this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

VFR outside of isolated TS developing around 21Z near any of the
terminals. Low coverage precludes mention in the TAFs, but any TS
could have microbursts with locally dense BLDU.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93