466
FXUS64 KLUB 021830
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1230 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

- A few strong to severe storms are possible across the eastern
  Rolling Plains late this afternoon. However, storm chances are
  higher to the east of our forecast area. If storms do form, hail
  and damaging winds are possible.

- Breezy westerly winds today, with gusts up to 50 mph on the
  Caprock.

- The rest of the week will be mostly dry with high temperatures
  generally in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1225 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A 998-mb sfc low was positioned over eastern SD as of 10am/16z
Monday, with a cold front draped all the way south into eastern
NM. This front will sweep east across the FA today, and deeper
mixing behind the front will result in increasingly breezy winds
that are near or just below wind advisory criteria (sustained
winds 30+ mph). Ensemble guidance continues to suggest peak gusts
of 40-45 mph at most locations, although we`ve already
outperformed this with several WTM stations on the Caprock
reporting peak gusts near 50 mph. These winds may lead to some
patchy blowing dust, and a few webcams have already shown dust
being kicked up, although it is not widespread. The RRFS dust
output also does not appear too aggressive with this event, so any
visibility impacts should be limited/short-lived.

Out ahead of the front, dewpoints are in the mid-to-upper 60s
across the Rolling Plains. Satellite imagery shows cumulus
developing along and ahead of the front, although it does not have
much vertical depth as of noon/18z. As sfc temps warm to near 80F
this afternoon and an eastward moving upper trough provides
cooling temps aloft, steepening lapse rates will yield a corridor
of moderate instability (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) in a well-
sheared environment (deep layer shear 45-50 kts). This environment
will be conditionally supportive of strong to severe storms,
although models continue to suggest initiation occurs near or
just east of our easternmost counties (Childress to Stonewall). A
severe threat (hail/wind) can`t be ruled out in these counties
this afternoon, but it will be a relatively narrow window during
the mid/late afternoon (3-5 PM).

Behind the front, as the upper low moves overhead it may support a
few scattered showers. Forecast soundings depict a deep, well-mixed
PBL with a narrow unstable layer present atop the PBL. This is a
common signature for post-frontal, upper low forced showers, and a
few such showers are already evident on radar over far eastern NM.
Any showers that do occur should be light, but be accompanied by the
ongoing breezy winds. A secondary front will shift winds to north-
northwesterly tonight. Winds remain breezy on Tues, but not as
strong as today with peak gusts 30-35 mph. A cooler airmass will
move in behind these fronts, with 850mb temps falling from above +15
degC today to near +10 degC tomorrow, resulting in highs on Tues in
the low 60s on the Caprock and mid 60s off the Caprock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1225 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The rest of the week and the upcoming weekend should feature
benign fall weather. An upper low will track across the TX
Panhandle Thurs AM, resulting in a weak sfc low (MSLP around
1008mb) bringing a renewed push of northerly winds in its wake.
Precip chances with this wave appear minimal, owing to limited
moisture return ahead of it. Forecast soundings show a brief
window early Thurs AM where there may be sufficient saturation for
light rain, but outside of that the soundings appear too dry.
Ensemble guidance is not bullish about the rain chances, keeping
them below mentionable levels for now. High temps during the long
term forecast period will generally be a tad below normal, in the
upper 50s to mid 60s, with the exception of Wednesday which looks
a bit warmer relative to Thurs- Sun. Low temps will be near
normal, ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s. A hard freeze still
appears unlikely through at least the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. The low clouds this morning have
mostly cleared the TAF sites. Breezy to gusty southwesterly winds
are expected through the afternoon and overnight at all three TAF
sites. Sustained wind speeds of 20 knots with gusts up to 30-35
knots are expected.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...10