744
FXUS64 KLUB 040433
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1133 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

 - Slightly warmer Sunday, with highs in the 70s.

 - Drier and warmer conditions are expected through next week.

 - Temperatures back above normal by end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Water vapor imagery late this evening shows the plume of moisture
associated with the southwest flow continue to advect for areas to
our south. However, across the FA drier air is being depicted across
the area thanks to an H5 upper high set up over the Four Corners
regions, allowing dry northwest flow aloft to prevail. This upper
high is expected to expand westward slightly Sunday which will aid
in an uptick in geopotential heights, resulting in afternoon highs a
few degrees warmer than previous. Additionally, satellite is already
beginning to detect a stratus deck developing across the region.
Similar to this morning, there is a chance clouds along with areas
of patchy fog stick around longer than anticipated, though all
guidance is in agreement with this clearing by mid-morning.
Therefore, will keep NBM temperatures, in the 70s area-wide. As for
precipitation, chances are non-existent thanks to subsidence
provided by the upper high and lack of moisture across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Not much to report in the extended forecast package with the main
theme being the continuation of warmer temperatures and drier
conditions across the region. Synoptically speaking, the H5 upper
ridge over the SWCONUS will remain encompassed over the region
before we begin to see a slight change in the pattern as the ridge
begins to break down in response as weak shortwaves pass through the
main flow over the PacNW. Despite this, the continuation of upslope
flow at the lower-levels will help aid in temperatures from becoming
too warm, thanks to the surface high lingering across the area. As a
result, expect highs in the 70s and lower 80s through mid-week
before afternoon temperatures increase above seasonal standards in
the mid 80s to lower 90s as lee cyclogenesis develops over
southeastern CO. Precipitation is not expected through the extended
thanks to lack of moisture and forcing for ascent.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Threat for fog remains most valid at CDS through early morning,
including IFR visbys and CIGs. Enough uncertainty over the
duration and coverage of stratus and fog warrant a TEMPO mention
for now. Otherwise, there is an outside chance of fog also at LBB
and PVW followed by a less than 10% chance of afternoon SHRA or
TS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...93