Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
095 FXUS64 KLUB 011106 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 606 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 605 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 - Seasonably warm temperatures are expected today along with a couple of isolated afternoon storms, but most locations will remain dry. - Storm chances are forecast to return Friday through Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A large amplitude upper level ridge axis centered over the Intermountain West will persist through the short term along with expansive longwave troughing over the eastern half of the country, resulting in a continuation of modest northwest flow aloft over West TX. South of the western ridge axis, an inverted trough has allowed a ribbon of enhanced mid/upper level moisture to remain in place over northern Mexico and the Big Bend region, but the bulk of this moisture should stay confined to our south and west today with most models indicating that PWATs will fall to near or just below 1" locally. Still, a couple of isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon as some lift associated with a subtle midlevel wave passes by, but the generally drier atmosphere compared to the past couple of days should keep storm coverage quite low with the majority of the region likely to remain dry today. Given the well mixed lower atmosphere and high based nature of convection, any storms today could produce some strong wind gusts, but these too should remain very isolated. Temperatures will be right near average for the first of September with highs generally in the upper 80s area-wide. A dry and quiet overnight period is then expected tonight with cooler lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 By the start of the extended period a shortwave trough will continue to translate across the eastern Canadian Provinces, while a longwave trough remains positioned across the eastern CONUS. Off to the west, upper level ridging will be maintained with the center of the high positioned across the FOur Corners region. By mid-week, the center of the shortwave trough will begin to wobble, as an additional embedded low develops. As it amplifies, we will begin to see the shortwave phase into the existing longwave trough across the eastern half, evolving into a broad, large-scale trough. This will allow for northwest flow aloft to prevail through much of the extended. As the FA remains under the influence of the upper level ridge, subsidence should help keep the FA dry through at least mid-week. As for temperatures, slightly warmer conditions compared to what we saw this weekend, although not too warm with little change to height and thickness values across the region. Precipitation chances may return to portions of the area overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, as the associated surface low spirals through the Great Lakes region and drives a weak front through the South Plains. Guidance is still not quite sure on if this front makes it into the area, with some models washing it out well before it makes it into the FA. Therefore PoPs will be dependent on if the front reaches the area, with latest NBM backing off on any mentionable PoPs. Regardless, not much of a change is expected for temperatures with a quick boundary layer recovery expected with a well mixed boundary layer denoted by forecast soundings during the afternoon. Things become a bit more tricky as we head into the weekend, with ensemble guidance hinting at an additional FROPA late Friday night into Saturday morning as the upper level trough to our northeast translates eastward, while weak perturbations track through the base of the trough. Associated lift brought by the front, along with any weak perturbations, combined with the monsoonal moisture in place will lead to at least terrain induced thunderstorms across eastern New Mexico, which would likely track into areas across the Caprock during the evening. Not only will this increase PoPs through the weekend, but any lingering cloud cover along with the precipitation, and cooler air mass from the front will allow for cooler temperatures in the 80s and low 90s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. TS chances remain remote but a possibility. Will keep mention out of the TAFs at this time. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...07