495
FXUS64 KLUB 292259
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
559 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 553 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

 - High chances of rainfall exist from Thursday afternoon through
   Friday evening for the entire region.

 - Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding during this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

High probabilities for measurable rainfall remain in the forecast
over the next 24-36 hours. We will see height rises aloft overhead
this afternoon in advance of a short wave trough, formerly known as
Vance, moving northeastward out of northern Mexico into Far West
Texas. Weak ascent will begin to spread overhead this afternoon. Lift
will peak primarily during the overnight hours into early Friday
morning on the caprock. Lift is then expected to weaken on the
caprock from mid to late morning but persist over areas off the
caprock through the afternoon as the short wave rotates overhead.
The larger scale ascent from the short wave trough will be
complemented by a modest low level jet favoring the southern South
Plains. Isentropic surfaces will see a reasonable 25-35kt of flow
contributing to the highest precipitation probabilities during the
early morning hours on Friday. Scattered convection is expected to
develop late this afternoon spreading into the area from the south.
This afternoon will be the last of any meaningful instability we
will see for the duration of this event. Instability will only be on
the order of a few hundred J/kg but should be enough to produce
scattered thunderstorms. Increasing moisture through the atmospheric
column will lead to decreasing lapse rates and thus the weak
instability. Chances of severe storms are near zero due to the
expected weak updrafts. Higher probabilities will exist for heavy
rainfall and flooding. Precipitable water values will be on the
increase through the rest of today and peak around sunrise on Friday
morning. The forecast precipitable water values will range from
approximately 1.25" on the caprock to 1.50" off the caprock. These
values are above the 99th percentile for this time of year. Although
rainfall is not expected to be particularly heavy, the rainfall will
be persistent for an extended period of time. There are pockets of
relatively high soil moisture on the caprock at the moment, so,
flooding may be of concern in some areas. Rain showers will linger
into the afternoon favoring the Rolling Plains and taper off during
the evening hours on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Low level easterly winds will remain in place through Friday night
into Saturday morning. Some model guidance is still showing some
lingering precipitation off the caprock through Saturday morning.
However, this is most likely low stratus and possibly drizzle. Short
wave ridging will return late Saturday through the day on Sunday in
advance of the next trough digging into the western CONUS. The next
short wave trough will track to the four corners by Monday morning
providing another shot of precipitation from late Sunday through
Monday. Forcing associated with this short wave looks to be briefer
than what is expected for Friday but also may be stronger. The other
notable feature in the long term forecast will be a strong cold
front currently forecast to move through on Tuesday morning. Surface
winds will pack a punch behind this front but temperatures don`t
appear to be significantly affected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly for KLBB
and KPVW over the next several hours. While VFR looks to prevail
for this time frame, periods of low CIGs/VIS and gusty/erratic
winds are possible within any storms. Steady rain is expected to
develop at all sites early Friday morning, bringing prolonged
IFR/LIFR conditions thereafter.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...19