441
FXUS64 KLUB 300510
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1210 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1209 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

 - Rain, heavy at times, through Wednesday morning with localized
   flooding possible.

 - Additional heavy rain possible in the far southeastern Rolling
   Plains this evening through Thursday morning.

 - Cooler and drier conditions late-week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

A strong upper low over the Desert Southwest has swept up the
remnants of Hurricane Polo and a large mid-level fetch of tropical
moisture is currently making its way into our area as expected.
Highest moisture parameters remain over the far southwestern
Panhandle and north/western portions of the South Plains. However
given recent CAMs which were more aggressive with swaths of higher
precipitation farther east and the ground is already fairly
saturated from this morning`s rainfall over portions of the area,
the Flood Watch has been expanded to include all areas along and
west of I-27, including Lubbock. Amounts of 1 to 2 inches and swaths
of 3 to 4+ inches are possible. Use caution if traveling and do not
drive on flooded roadways. As the low occludes to the north, a dry
slot will encompass much of the forecast area beginning Wednesday
morning curtailing any additional rainfall chances across much of
the area. The lone exception will be over the far southeastern
Rolling Plains where the aforementioned front may still. Although
much of the QPF looks to be east of the CWA, the Flood Watch for
Stonewall County from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning has
been retained.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

The upper low will continue to track north and west with some
potential for isolated-to-scattered precipitation on its backside
during the day on Thursday and Friday. This however will not amount
to much. A cold front will move through the area Thursday, with
brisk northerly winds developing in its wake. As such, highs will be
on the chilly side only reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s. Weak
ridging will gradually build into the weekend bringing drier and
slightly warmer conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Widespread showers/storms are ongoing at the start of the period,
spreading east in time. These should shift east of I-27 between
08- 11z. Visbys may drop to around 2 miles with the heavier
showers. While some IFR ceilings are possible this morning,
guidance favored low MVFR so the TAFs were adjusted accordingly.
Winds will be breezy, with southerly or southwesterly gusts up to
30-35 mph at times. Skies to scatter out and cloud bases rise into
the afternoon/evening. May need to add a precip mention to KCDS
for Wed evening, but held off for now.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this afternoon for TXZ021>023-027>029-
033>035-039>041.

Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for
TXZ044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24