778
FXUS64 KLUB 111720
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1220 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1219 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

 - Warm temperatures will continue to be the main theme in the week
   ahead.

 - A storm system to the west will bring shower and thunderstorm
   chances Sunday into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

A transition in the upper flow over the southern High Plains is
underway as the axis of the ridge that is overhead has begun to
shift to the east as a broad trough over the western CONUS amplifies
modestly and also shifts to the east. The embedded short wave trough
responsible for the amplification is digging to the southeast over
the northern Rockies but is about lift to the east and then
northeast, but this is quickly followed by another short wave trough
that will dive into the longer wave trough from the western
Provinces down the coast of the Pacific Northwest. In the short term
this transition will result in increasing southwesterly flow aloft
over the forecast area, surface pressure falls that keep south to
southwest winds in place tonight and Sunday, and introduction of
shower and thunderstorm chances a bit earlier than expected on
Sunday. This response is from an increase in mid to upper level lift
in the left entrance region of a jet stream extending from the Four
Corners to the northern Plains, low level warm and moist advection,
and mid level moisture advection from abundant moisture over the
Desert Southwest. Increasing cloud cover and a decrease in heights
and thicknesses will be offset by low level warm advection and a
modest downslope component on Sunday with highs near those of today.
This comes after a mild night tonight as the boundary layer will
have difficulty completely decoupling due to cloud cover and
continued surface pressure falls.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Late Sunday night through Monday continues to look like the peak
time frame for precipitation when lift and moisture are maximized
ahead of a strengthening mid to upper level jet downstream from the
digging short wave trough and amplification of the broader trough as
mentioned in the section above. There still lacks a consistent focus
in relation to area favored other than broadly the western half to
two-thirds of the forecast area given lack of a low level focus
(apart from the potential for a weak cold front entering the
forecast area on Monday). NBM keeps PoPs in the chance category on
the high end of the gradient, and that looks quite reasonable given
the uncertainties.

Later periods continue to be a bit muddled in the models with the
overall pattern evolution. Twenty-four hours ago tended to favor the
ridge reasserting itself over the southern Plains, but more recent
runs now favor the western CONUS being more lasting, assertive, and
potentially progressive toward the end of the period. The trend
would still favor temperatures quite a bit warmer than normal, but
one that could see breezier south winds than previously expected and
the outside chance of some showers/thunder the end of the week. NBM
looks fine on all counts at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Breezy southerly
winds will continue through today into the overnight hours. LLWS up
to 45 knots is expected at all three TAF sites beginning just after
midnight and continue through Sunday morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...10