989
FXUS64 KLUB 051719
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1119 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1107 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

 - Below-average temperatures and mostly dry conditions into next
   week.

 - Breezy northerly winds today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A quiet night is expected tonight with clear skies and light
southerly winds. Lows will fall into the mid 40s to low 50s. A
positively tilted upper trough will track southeastward across our
area Thursday along with its associated surface cold front. The
precipitation is expected to entirely miss our area and remain over
Oklahoma, however we will not be completely devoid of impacts as
breezy northerly winds will develop behind the front. Gusts of 30-35
mph will peak from late morning through early afternoon. This will
subsequently lead to falling temperatures, with highs struggling to
reach 60 on the Caprock. Some low cloud cover will follow the
trough axis, however skies will clear in its wake. Winds will
significantly diminish overnight into Friday, which will allow for
chilly Friday morning lows potentially at or near freezing over
the far southwest Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A weak ridge will bring benign conditions and continued cooler
temperatures as 500 mb heights remain relatively low. A quasi-split
upper flow will develop over the Desert Southwest early Saturday.
Leading shortwaves out ahead of it will propagate over southern
portions of our area and bring precipitation chances in the mainly
morning as well with increased mid-level Pacific moisture advection
given the overall upper trough orientation. It remains somewhat
uncertain how far north this will reach, however even if the
somewhat later ECMWF verifies, it would be more rain than thunder
and move out relatively quickly. Another disturbance may track to
the east on Sunday, but conditions look to remain dry. Temperatures
will slowly increase next week as a ridge builds in from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Low end MVFR CIGs will continue at PVW through late afternoon
before increasing to VFR. MVFR CIGs have just cleared at LBB
Satellite shows additional MVFR CIGs trying to fill in the
clearing to the northwest of Lubbock county, but there is
uncertainty that these clouds will remain as they reach the
terminal. Lubbock will be kept at VFR for the time being and
amended if needed. MVFR CIGs should reach CDS by 1830-19Z and
remain through 00Z before improving to VFR.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...51