299
FXUS64 KLUB 130315
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1015 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1013 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue through at least mid-week,
  but trend slightly cooler each day.

- Daily thunderstorm chances exist from Sunday through Saturday
  favoring areas on the Caprock.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

In the immediate term, a strong low level jet has formed overhead
with 850mb winds on the order of 35-40kt. Weak ascent generated by
this low level jet may garner some light rain shower activity during
the early morning hours on Sunday. However, much of the isentropic
fields display downglide so it remains unclear on where any
precipitation would develop. Additionally, a cold front enhanced
outflow boundary will intrude on the extreme southern Texas
Panhandle into the northern South Plains and northern Rolling
Plains early in the morning on Sunday. This may also provide a
focus for isolated convection. During the day on Sunday, an upper
level ridge will remain firmly entrenched overhead but a downtick
in thickness values will result in temperatures a few degrees off
Saturday`s record values. With the upper ridge still not budging
much on Sunday, mid-level moisture will begin to be shunted to the
north under the increasingly southeasterly mid-level flow. There
may be a brief period where convection will be allowed to develop
across the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle and along the
Texas/New Mexico state line on Sunday afternoon before this mid-
level moisture skirts north. Although temperatures will be
slightly cooler, deep boundary layer mixing will persist leading
to a high based cumulus field. Increasing coverage of convection
can be expected farther into eastern New Mexico closer to the
presence of a surface pressure trough. Similar to what we observed
on Saturday afternoon, instability values will only be on the
order of a few hundred J/kg. Any storms that develop will
primarily have the potential of developing strong surface wind
gusts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The theme for next week will be daily chances of convective chances
beneath a mid-level moisture plume favoring areas on the caprock.
The upper level ridge will further move eastward to the southeastern
CONUS. This will allow the monsoon moisture plume to shift more
overhead starting as early as Monday but increasing in coverage
aloft for the rest of the week. With the ridge moving farther away
from the region and an increase in moisture will result in a
lowering trend on temperatures through the week. The cooler surface
temperatures will bring minimal chances of severe convection with
smaller inverted-V soundings and lower cloud bases. Tuesday and
afternoon and evening may see increased precipitation chances with a
cold front making a run at the region but likely stopping shy of the
area in the Texas Panhandle. A second cold front will make a run at
the area on Thursday with better chances of reaching into the South
Plains. It is this second cold front which may finally bring
temperatures back down towards seasonal averages next weekend with
models showing easterly upslope flow during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Winds are expected mostly from the
south through the rest of this evening, however storms continue to
quickly develop and die resulting in erratic strong gusts. A
shower currently sits to the northwest of KCDS and a second storm
to the southwest. These storms could produce a strong outflow that
could impact KCDS. These storms are not expected to impact the
terminal directly. Winds overnight will shift to the southwest
before shifting back to the south Sunday morning. LLWS is also
expected overnight at KPVW and KLBB.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...10