439
FXUS64 KLUB 142314
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
614 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 612 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue through this
   evening mainly to the west of I-27.

 - Another round of isolated thunderstorms is possible Saturday
   along the NM/TX state line.

 - Hot and dry next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

If you enjoyed the rain yesterday evening, you are in luck! Another
round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible later
this afternoon and evening. Current water vapor imagery shows the
upper ridging parked over southeastern CONUS with the western edge
sitting across central Texas. The ridging is expected to slightly
retreat west with the edge reaching across the forecast area later
this afternoon bringing southwesterly flow aloft. Slight height and
thickness increases will warm temperatures to the triple digits
across the forecast area this afternoon with areas off the Caprock
reaching up to 106-107 degrees. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the
far southeastern Texas Panhandle and the Rolling Plains from 1 to 8
PM today. Forcing from an embedded upper shortwave will bring slight
chances for thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening for areas
on the Caprock. Subsidence below the ridging will keep areas off the
Caprock dry. Models indicate thunderstorms will develop along the
NM/TX border and track northeast with the push from the
southwesterly flow aloft. Decent mid to upper level moisture
expected across the Caprock the latter half of today as the
southwesterly flow aloft ushers in subtropical moisture. The 12Z
sounding from Midland shows a small capping inversion, however this
is expected to get eroded away by daytime heating. Forecast
soundings for areas on the Caprock show inverted-v soundings,
therefore elevated thunderstorms are expected. With elevated
thunderstorms and DCAPE values up to 1400 J/kg, strong wind gusts
and outflows up to 70 mph can be expected. With MUCAPE values
ranging from 1600 to 2500 J/kg, large hail will be possible.
However, this forecaster believes the forecast soundings are
overestimating due to the hot temperatures. These storms will also
have the potential for producing heavy rainfall that could lead to
flash flooding with PWATS just below 1.5 inches. All thunderstorms
are expected to clear the region by midnight.

The rest of the overnight period will be quiet and mild with
moderate southeasterly winds gradually shifting to the southwest
overnight as a surface low sitting over NE NM shifts to the east
across the northern TX Panhandle and OK Panhandle. Overnight lows
will range from the upper 60s across the far southwestern Texas
Panhandle to upper 70s across the southern Rolling Plains. Another
hot one is expected Saturday, although a few degrees cooler compared
to today. The upper ridging will remain much of the state of Texas,
however will begin to elongate west as an upper low pushes in from
the south. Due to this pattern, flow aloft will vary from south to
southeast through the day. Temperatures remain hot Saturday with
highs expected in the upper 90s on the Caprock to just below Heat
Advisory off the Caprock. NBM continues to underestimate
temperatures, therefore highs were manually increased by a couple of
degrees to match MOS guidance. Slightly upsloping winds will bring
another round of isolated thunderstorms Saturday evening along the
NM/TX border. Models indicate these storms will develop across
eastern NM and track east to northeast, just across the state line
into our forecast area. With not much to note in terms of forcing,
these storms, if they make it across the state line, are expected to
be short-lived. However, with decent instability with MUCAPE values
up to 2000 J/kg and DCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg, if a storm is able
to sustain itself, a severe storm with hail and gusty winds will be
possible. With the ridging across the rest of the forecast area,
Saturday will be dry for the central to eastern portions on the
Caprock and areas off the Caprock. &&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The upper ridging will continue to elongate across the southern
CONUS through early next week. This will keep conditions dry for the
much of the long term forecast. Temperatures remain hot in the upper
90s to triple digits. Currently, Wednesday looks to be the hottest
day for the long term forecast. If this trend continues, can expect
Heat Advisories for future forecasts. At the moment, there is a
slight chance for thunderstorms for the latter half of Sunday for a
small portion of Parmer County in the far southwestern Texas
Panhandle. The western edge of the upper ridging will reach eastern
NM on Sunday. An embedded shortwave will result in thunderstorms
developing across central to eastern NM. There is a slight chance
these storms could sneak into our northwestern corner of the
forecast area. However, models are in disagreement with this
evolution. The ECMWF, which tends to have a more wet bias, has
precipitation possible across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle
while the GFS, which has a more dry bias, keeps us dry. The models
should align better for future forecasts. Check back for updates. An
upper pattern change later next week could bring another round or
two of thunderstorms with upper ridging amplifying across western
CONUS while an upper trough swings across the Midwest.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The upper ridging will continue to elongate across the southern
CONUS through early next week. This will keep conditions dry for the
much of the long term forecast. Temperatures remain hot in the upper
90s to triple digits. Currently, Wednesday looks to be the hottest
day for the long term forecast. If this trend continues, can expect
Heat Advisories for future forecasts. At the moment, there is a
slight chance for thunderstorms for the latter half of Sunday for a
small portion of Parmer County in the far southwestern Texas
Panhandle. The western edge of the upper ridging will reach eastern
NM on Sunday. An embedded shortwave will result in thunderstorms
developing across central to eastern NM. There is a slight chance
these storms could sneak into our northwestern corner of the
forecast area. However, models are in disagreement with this
evolution. The ECMWF, which tends to have a more wet bias, has
precipitation possible across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle
while the GFS, which has a more dry bias, keeps us dry. The models
should align better for future forecasts. Check back for updates. An
upper pattern change later next week could bring another round or
two of thunderstorms with upper ridging amplifying across western
CONUS while an upper trough swings across the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

South winds and VFR will persist through this TAF period. Isolated
TS capable of strong/erratic wind gusts are expected to remain
west of KLBB/KPVW this evening.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-031-032-
037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30