341
FXUS64 KLUB 181735
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

 - Few storms near the New Mexico border Friday night.

 - Scattered storms, some possibly severe, on Saturday afternoon.

 - Warm temperatures continue through Sunday until a cool down
   next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

A compact short wave trough was observed on water vapor imagery over
eastern Arizona/western New Mexico this morning moving eastward into
New Mexico. Ascent from this short wave will largely remain in New
Mexico through the afternoon and evening providing support for
convection west of the FA. Closer to the area, a surface pressure
trough in eastern New Mexico will provide low level convergence for
convection later this afternoon. This activity is not expected to
make much headway into the region except across the extreme
southwestern Texas Panhandle. Temperatures will not undergo much of
a reprieve this afternoon continuing to result in a deeply mixed
boundary layer and high cloud bases. The dry sub-cloud layer will
allow any storms to produce strong wind gusts.

The short wave trough will continue to move east during the
overnight hours emerging onto the South Plains Saturday afternoon.
Large scale ascent will be weak but will improve by Saturday
afternoon with the approach of the short wave trough. A weak jet
streak at 250mb will accompany the short wave at 500mb with max wind
speeds on the order of 50-60kt. Ascent from the upper level jet will
be favored from the southern South Plains southward into the Permian
Basin. Warmer surface temperatures and cooling temperatures aloft
will garner much more instability on Saturday afternoon in a
southwest to northeast orientation cutting from roughly Yoakum
County through Childress County. The atmosphere is expected to
mostly be uncapped by mid-afternoon with deep mixed layer
instability values progged around 1500-2000 J/kg. The center of an
upper level ridge will not be too distant positioned over northeast
Texas. Therefore, deep layer shear will continue to be weak leading
to little chance of storm organization. Inverted-V soundings up to
700mb will again promote storms capable of producing strong to
severe wind gusts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

A wetter and cooler weather pattern is anticipated for next week but
with a high degree of uncertainty. The upper level ridge will be
further suppressed early next week with a series of short wave
troughs moving across the Central Plains. A cold front will approach
the area on Sunday but looks to stall out in the Texas Panhandle
leading to at least one more very warm day. The departing short wave
trough may be slower than anticipated keeping at least some large
scale ascent off the caprock on Sunday afternoon with subsidence
swinging overhead on the caprock. Models are then aggressive in
resuming the push of the cold front through the area early Monday
morning finally bringing temperatures closer to seasonal averages.
The resultant low level upslope flow for several days may bring an
extended period of wet conditions for the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Breezy southerly winds will calm down
this evening and through Saturday afternoon. Widespread scattered
storms are expected across much of the region beginning Saturday
towards the end of this TAF period. Thunderstorms will be possible
at or near each terminal.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...10