983
FXUS64 KLUB 271102
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
602 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 601 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

 - Mostly sunny and warm conditions through Monday afternoon.

 - Tropical moisture Monday evening through Wednesday will bring
   widespread (potentially heavy) rain chances and cooler
   temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have departed the forecast area to the
south and east and a quiet night is expected with partly cloudy
skies and lows in the 60s. An upper ridge axis will move over the
region on Sunday, bringing mostly sunny skies and highs ranging from
the mid 80s to mid 90s. The ridge will continue to have the majority
of influence through the day Monday with essentially the same
forecast as Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Attention will quickly turn to a pair of systems to our south and
west. A deep positively titled upper low will descend over
Southern California late Monday into Tuesday. At the same time,
Hurricane Polo is expected to be making landfall over southern
Baja California. The main upper through flow orientation would be
enough on its own to bring a large fetch of Pacific moisture over
our area, however this will also be combined with it "sweeping up"
the remnant moisture from Hurricane Polo. Timing remains somewhat
uncertain, but areas along the TX/NM border would see the first
of the associated precipitation Monday evening, with rain
gradually shifting eastward with the progression of the
aforementioned through. Tuesday evening into early Wednesday
morning looks to be the period that will see the heaviest and
most widespread rainfall across the entire forecast area. GFS/NAM
develops the dry slot sooner and thus an earlier end time
Wednesday morning, while ECMWF remains more optimistic with
regards to rain persisting for longer. Respective GFS/ECMWF ensembles
are similar to their deterministic counterparts. It remains too
early to be overly specific and everything will be monitored
closely in the coming days. A drier pattern looks to develop
thereafter into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Dry weather and VFR conditions continue. Light winds will
gradually turn from westerly at the start of the period to
northeasterly by early Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24