209
FXUS64 KLUB 161112
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
612 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 606 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

 - A few afternoon storms are expected Sunday afternoon over the
   southern Texas Panhandle, but most areas will remain dry.

 - Above normal temperatures will persist well into the upcoming
   week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Persistent upper level ridging remains centered over the lower MS
Valley this late Saturday evening, with water vapor imagery
highlighting a TUTT-like feature over the Big Bend and a ribbon of
monsoonal moisture stretching from eastern NM into the TX/OK
Panhandles. This setup will keep storm activity to our west and
north through the early morning hours, with the decaying convection
set to leave an outflow boundary draped just south of I-40. Strong
heating south of this boundary will boost temperatures into the 90s
and low 100s once again Sunday afternoon over most of our forecast
area, while cooler and more humid conditions continue to our north
over the TX Panhandle. Most hi-res models suggest that the above-
mentioned residual outflow boundary will serve as a weak effective
frontal zone as it lifts slowly northward, kicking off a round of
scattered thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. Consensus on where this
initial storm development occurs is poor due to uncertainty on the
placement of the boundary, with solutions ranging from our southern
TX Panhandle counties all the way to the north of I-40. As a result,
confidence in storm chances on Sunday is quite low, but enough of a
signal is present to support SChc PoPs during the afternoon north of
a line from Muleshoe to Plainview to Childress, with dry conditions
expected elsewhere. Similar to the past several days, the environment
will support brief strong wind gusts and brief downpours with any storms
that do develop. Quiet weather is then expected to return Sunday night,
with lows only a bit above normal for this time of year on Monday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

The synoptic pattern changes little overall heading into Monday,
although convective chances will generally decrease over our
forecast area as the center of the upper ridge inches farther
westward. A few isolated storms may still clip portions of the far
southern TX Panhandle Monday afternoon, but storm chances will be
mostly confined well to our north. Models remain in good
agreement that the ridging aloft will build directly overhead
Tuesday before settling more towards the Four Corners region
Wednesday through the end of the week. This will bring another
period of dry weather and triple digit temperatures to most of the
region on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, with 105 degree or
greater high temperatures appearing likely for areas off the
Caprock.

Thursday into the beginning of next weekend, medium range models
generally agree that cyclonic flow aloft will deepen over the
eastern CONUS, which may open the door for a frontal system to pass
southward through the plains states sometime during the late week
period. A few deterministic solutions suggest this may bring a
modest cooldown and increase in precipitation chances Thu-Sat, but
ensemble consensus still overwhelmingly favors a continuation of
hot and mainly dry weather given the strength of the ridging aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions prevail. A surface boundary/wind shift was evident
in radar imagery between KLBB/KPVW as of 11z. Winds to the south
of this boundary are southerly, while winds to the north of this
boundary are variable. Winds may be variable during the first few
hours of the period, but should take on a southerly component by
mid/late morning. Isolated storms are possible near and north of
KPVW/KCDS this evening, but the expected coverage was too low
include a PROB30. These storms could result in another wind shift
to northerly late in the period, however, confidence was too low
to put this in the TAF just yet.



&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...24