647
FXUS64 KLUB 242305
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
605 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 605 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

- Rain showers and a few storms arrive tonight and continue on-
  and-off through Sunday, mainly on the Caprock.

- Additional showers and storms are expected on Monday before
  drier weather returns during the middle of the week.

- Rain chances then return Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

The synoptic pattern at midday Saturday is similar to what has been
observed over the past 24 hours or so, with southwest flow aloft in
place over West TX between a high-amplitude ridge axis centered over
the ArkLaTex and a now-closed low centered over western AZ. Water
vapor imagery highlights a broad fetch of enhanced mid/upper level
moisture within the southwest flow aloft originating from the
eastern Pacific. However, stronger jet-level flow and forcing for
ascent in general is still focused well to our west, and as a result
we expect nearly all convective activity to remain confined to the
terrain of NM through this evening. Some brief sprinkles are still
possible near the state line, but a large majority of the region
will remain dry through the rest of the day. Thicker cloud cover
will keep temperatures a bit cooler over the Caprock compared to
farther east, with highs topping out near or just under 70 degrees
west of I-27 this afternoon.

By late this evening, a line of showers/storms is expected to be
positioned over eastern NM, but this activity will have quite a bit
of trouble advancing farther eastward into our area given the lack
of a strong westerly component aloft. Even so, we still expect that
the outflow and a gravity wave or two propagating from this line
will generate additional scattered showers over western portions of
the Caprock late tonight, similar to what occurred last night. In
addition, there is fairly good model consensus in a modest shortwave
disturbance lifting into our area around sunrise, which should
result in a further increase in coverage of showers over the
remainder of the Caprock on Sunday morning. Pockets of locally heavy
rain are still possible given the rich atmospheric moisture content
(PWATs about 200% of normal), but the threat for flooding appears
low. For now, it appears that the bulk of our rainfall potential on
Sunday will be confined to areas on the Caprock during the morning
hours, but the overall setup still favors potential for on-and-off
showers mainly west of I-27 throughout the day. We also expect a
respectable temperature gradient across the region, with highs
struggling to exceed the low 60s near the TX/NM state line, and mid
70s possible off the Caprock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

On Sunday night, the upper low will lift northeastward over the Four
Corners, then eject into the central plains as a potent open trough
on Monday. This evolution should result in another mainly linear
cluster of showers and storms over NE NM which may make it into the
SW TX Panhandle late Sunday evening before dissipating. Despite the
progress of the upper low, moist and generally unsettled southwest
flow aloft is set to persist over our region through Monday. This
combined with another shortwave disturbance lifting overhead will
likely bring another round of scattered showers and a few storms to
the forecast area through Monday afternoon before a general drying
trend takes place on Monday night. Warmer and drier weather is
expected during the Tue-Wed timeframe as flow aloft weakens and
becomes more zonal, and temperatures will again climb slightly
above normal during the middle of the week. Thursday and beyond,
model consensus supports a return to a somewhat more active
pattern as deep cyclonic flow aloft overspreads much of the
western CONUS. Details are scarce at this lead time, but this
signals a return of rain chances for the end of the week into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Showers and low clouds are expected to move in to PVW/LBB late
tonight into Sun AM, and linger through the rest of the period.
Precip could start as early as 08z, but appears most likely
between 12-18z. Low MVFR ceilings appear likely at PVW/LBB, and
IFR is certainly possible - but did not go prevailing IFR with
this TAF update. Thunder chances are non-zero, but too low to
warrant inclusion in the TAF. At KCDS, precip chances are lower
and arrive later in the period (Sun PM), and the MVFR ceilings are
expected to stay off to the west. Southeasterly winds persist
through the period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...24