158
FXUS64 KLUB 300525
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1225 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

 - Much warmer, drier, and breezier Saturday.

 - Hot Sunday and Monday before a cooler and wetter pattern
   unfolds starting Monday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 930 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Severe storms were being maintained this evening across the far
southeast TX Panhandle along the nose a LLJ and the exit region of
an upper jet streak in southwest flow. Once this convection departs
toward 11 PM, a quiet and mild night awaits with moistening
southerly breezes and dewpoints rising through the 60s for all but
our northwestern counties. Aloft meanwhile, a negatively-tilted
upper low over Utah will curl into Wyoming during the day on
Saturday while spreading deeper southwesterlies over W TX. This
process will spur breezy and hotter SW winds that kick a dryline
across the Caprock by noon before stalling near or just beyond our
eastern column of counties by peak heating. There is a small
chance that dryline storms initiate by 5-7 PM as CIN is progged to
become very negligible due to such strong heating/mixing, but
should storms develop they would likely exit the forecast area
before maturing. As such, will keep PoPs silent.

Southwest winds aloft relax Saturday night as heights rise while
becoming increasingly anticyclonic. The dryline will retreat once
again overnight, but fail to make as much progress this time
compared to Saturday morning, so low temps should see a sharper
contrast with values near 50 in Friona to the lower 70s in Aspermont.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 930 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Active weather this evening precluded updates to the extended
discussion. Previous long term discussion:

Mid and upper level flow will remain backed out of the southwest on
Sunday with ridging moving overhead. They dryline will again be
favored to mix off the caprock Sunday afternoon but subsidence aloft
from the ridging may keep convective chances at subdued. Mostly
southwest flow aloft will continue through much of next week. This
will result in broad southeasterly upslope low level flow just about
each afternoon and daily chances of thunderstorms. Any short waves
aloft are too subtle to discern at this time scale but some
afternoons may be favored over others in the presence of any short
wave troughs. Increasing moisture by mid-week may keep temperatures
shy of the 90s during the second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR will prevail through this TAF period. LLWS at all sites
overnight will diminish after sunrise, with a few SHRA also
possible at KLBB and KPVW through mid-morning. Otherwise, winds
will turn southwesterly and become gusty by early afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...30