970
FXUS64 KLUB 191724
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1224 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

 - Chances of storms this afternoon and evening with slight chance
   of severe storms.

 - Highs in the 90s this weekend, then cooler starting Monday with
   daily chances of precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Concerns raised in the previous discussion remain valid in the
latest runs of model guidance. Although we will see a weak surface
trough oriented from southwest to northeast across the caprock later
this afternoon, low level convergence will remain insubstantial. A
short wave trough was observed on water vapor imagery extending from
southeastern Colorado southward through Far West Texas. An increase
in the 250mb winds was noted in the same area with wind speeds
topping out around 60kt. Some upper level wind divergence was viewed
in model guidance near the entrance region of this jet streak.
Therefore, any convection this afternoon will likely have to rely on
surface heating along with this lean large scale ascent. CAM
guidance continues to waffle in its guidance of convective
development likely due to the fact that weak lift is present. A
fairly broad area of higher theta-e air at low levels of the
atmosphere existed east of the surface pressure trough. This
provides little confidence in a convective initiation location but
also increases confidence in available moisture for convection.
Although surface dew points started out in the upper 60s this
morning, which most models were under forecasting, they are still
expected to mix out into the mid to possibly lower 50s in vicinity
of the surface pressure trough under strong surface heating. The
reduction in surface dew points may introduce weak capping late this
afternoon and lower potential instability values. Mixed layer
instability may range anywhere between 500 to 1500 J/kg depending on
how much the surface layer mixes out. Either way, shear vectors will
be weak lending to little organization to convection that can be
anticipated resulting in strong to severe wind gusts.

Sunday`s forecast has not become any more clear with the latest runs
of guidance. A cold front looks to stall out somewhere across the FA
during the afternoon bringing mostly northerly winds to the region.
At the same time, the departing short wave trough will start to
bring subsidence overhead on the caprock during the afternoon hours
with lingering ascent off the caprock. Scattered thunderstorms will
therefore be favored off the caprock Sunday afternoon coincident with
the deeper low level moisture ahead of the frontal boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Impacts in temperatures from the front will not be felt until after
the weekend as the front pushes through the rest of the region on
Monday. Short wave ridging aloft will build overhead Monday and
Tuesday. However, easterly upslope flow will keep temperatures much
closer and even below seasonal averages through much of the week.
Upslope flow will promote periodic convective chances Monday lasting
through the week. Increasing southwest flow aloft starting around
mid-week will keep convective chances going through the remainder of
the week. Low level flow returning to the south will start to bring
temperatures back up in the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Scattered storms should develop this afternoon and evening. Maintain
a PROB30 for both KLBB/KPVW, and considered adding one for KCDS but
confidence in storm coverage was too low. Any storms that do form
could produce strong, erratic winds. Outside of storms, VFR
conditions are expected with southerly winds though the overnight,
turning to northwesterly into Sunday morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...24