763
FXUS64 KLUB 281655
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1155 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

 - Patchy fog possible across much of the area Thursday morning.

 - High chances of rainfall exist from Thursday afternoon through
   Friday evening for the entire region with locally heavy
   rainfall possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Temperatures will be slow to warm this afternoon, especially on the
caprock, until low stratus clears out of the area. A fairly
noticable jump is expected immediately after clearing but not
much more warming is expected after that initial jump. Cyclonic
flow aloft will lead to surface cyclogenesis in lee of the Rockies
this afternoon bringing breezy southwesterly winds. A constant
flow of low level moisture will again bring low stratus overnight
tonight into early Thursday morning. Temperatures will likely be
cooler with low stratus persisting until the afternoon again.
However, mid and high level cloud cover will be on the increase
with the approach of the next upper level short wave.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Upper level winds will begin to back to the southwest early in the
day in advance of a short wave trough moving northeastward across
northern Mexico. Ascent does not appear to be very strong with this
short wave as it approaches the area late Thursday into Friday. Lift
will begin to spread overhead the area early Thursday afternoon
lasting through Friday afternoon until the trough axis passes
overhead. A strong low level jet will develop in response to this
short wave trough bringing significant amounts of isentropic ascent.
Strong winds at 850mb will remain through the day time but shift
eastward through the day swinging over the Rolling Plains in the
afternoon. Large scale subsidence will then move overhead beginning
late Friday afternoon ending precipitation. Precipitable water
values will increase through the day on Thursday peaking early
Friday morning with values ranging from one inch over the extreme
southwestern Texas Panhandle to as much as 1.50 inches over the
Rolling Plains. Model soundings become completely saturated by
sunset on Thursday afternoon. These values correspond to anomalies
above the 99th percentile for late October/early November. When
precipitation begins on Thursday afternoon, some instability will be
present with model soundings not quite saturated yet. However, as
the atmosphere becomes completely saturated by late Thursday
afternoon, lapse rates will greatly weaken leading to little to no
available instability. Therefore, the best chances for any thunder
will be early on in the event Thursday afternoon.

Models show another slower short wave trough hanging back late on
Friday through early Saturday. However, model QPF amounts are light
suggesting this may only be low stratus or possibly drizzle. This
secondary short wave trough will move east of the area on Saturday
afternoon leading to clearing skies for Halloween evening. Short
wave ridging will move over top the area on Sunday in advance of
a deep long wave trough moving across the western CONUS. Models
are struggling a fair bit with this next system early next week
but does look to bring a strong front through sometime from Monday
through Tuesday next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

IFR ceilings are currently impacting KPVW and KLBB. Fog is also
impacting KPVW, however visibilities remain VFR. These conditions
will clear after sunrise and conditions will return to VFR. VFR
conditions will prevail at KCDS. There is another possibility for
fog at KPVW and KLBB Thursday morning, however confidence at the
moment is low.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...10