154
FXUS64 KLUB 210514
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1214 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1213 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Rolling Plains including
  Caprock Canyons State Park for Tuesday afternoon and evening
  for temperatures near 105 degrees.

- A conditional threat of strong to severe downburst winds will
  exist on Tuesday with any showers and thunderstorms which
  develop, mainly west of Interstate 27 / Highway 87

- Warmer temperatures are expected this week with highs in the
  100-108 range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

A dome of high pressure will be the primary driver for the weather
for Tuesday.  A weakness in the high will persist across southern NM
into Chihuahua/Sonora which will help support afternoon to early
evening showers and thunderstorms primarily focusing on areas west
of I-27.  While shear remains weak, thermodynamic profiles will
support the potential for strong downburst winds from pulse-type
storms. Hot temps will prevail with highs running roughly about
10 degrees above seasonal norms. Anticipated highs on Tuesday
presently are right at the threshold for head advisory criteria,
but given the margin of forecast error, will continue the Heat
Advisory for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The dome of high pressure will shift southeastward into NTX and OK
with a closed contour of 596 DAM over southwestern Oklahoma.
However, a frontal boundary will serve to taper temperatures to our
east to some extent and there exists at least some risk that the
frontal progression could overperform the modes and sneak into
Childress on Wednesday.  I suspect it will not make much of a
difference as guidance continues to show rather hot temps across the
region either side of the boundary. The theta-e misery index
looks maximized over the eastern part of the state. Here in WTX,
it won`t be a whole lot better, with Tds in the 60s WED/THU
peaking 70s making it feel like central TX summer by Friday before
slightly drier air makes it back in for the weekend. Regardless,
it will remain hot. There are some hints of potential NW flow
storms up in the Panhandle on Saturday though the generalized
pattern doesn`t look quite as classic as I`d like to get excited,
but there is at least some potential.

I suspect we will probably a few days with heat advisories in our
CWA as the week continues, but we`ll tackle those in sequence.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...12