296
FXUS64 KLUB 141114
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
614 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 605 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms Friday evening across
   portions of the South Plains and far southwest Panhandle.

 - Hot and dry this weekend into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Southerly winds will remain elevated near 15 mph overnight again
keeping low temperatures on the mild side, ranging from the mid 70s
to low 80s. A trough moving over the Pacific Northwest will become
less amplified during the day Friday and high pressure over the
Southeast will track slightly farther west. Thus mid-level flow will
be oriented such that a southwesterly fetch of monsoonal moisture
will make its way into the area. Unlike Thursday and due in part to
the aforementioned ridge shifting westward, the storms should be
confined more to the far southwest Panhandle and western portions of
the South Plains. Forecast sounding profiles look almost identical
to Thursday`s, with DCAPE values exceeding 1500 J/kg in spots. As
such, brief strong winds to 60 mph and heavy downpours will be the
main threat. Any storms should taper off by late-evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

The upper ridge will shift farther west by Saturday. Although some
isolated storms could still possibly find their way into far
northwestern portions of the area Saturday evening, a mostly hot and
dry pattern looks to continue well into next week. Highs will
increase by a degree or so each day starting Sunday, climbing into
the upper 90s on the Caprock and low-to-mid 100s off the Caprock.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions continue, along with modest southerly winds
sustained at 10-15 kts with gusts as high as 25 kts. Isolated
storm development is expected near and west of I-27 this
afternoon/evening. Chances are highest west of KLBB/KPVW, and were
not high enough to warrant a mention in the TAF at this time.
Still, there is at least a low chance (10%) for a storm or the
associated erratic winds to impact KLBB/KPVW between 21-02z.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24