Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
311 FXUS64 KLUB 050542 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1242 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - A cold front passing through the forecast area will lead to a sharp gradient in temperatures today, with cooler highs across the SW TX Panhandle and warmer highs across the Rolling Plains. - Precipitation chances arrive this afternoon and continue each day through the weekend into early next week. - Warmer and drier weather will likely return by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 An upper level shortwave trough was seen spiraling across the southern Desert Southwest early this morning, allowing for H5 winds to begin backing out of the southwest. As southwest flow prevails aloft, we will begin to see increased moisture enter the region over the next several hours, including mid to high level clouds. Meanwhile a series of shortwaves are expected to track down the southern periphery of the long wave trough over the Great Lakes region. In turn, this will work to push a stronger cold front southward, currently located across central Kansas as depicted by satellite imagery and recent station obs. This front is expected to make its way into the far southern Texas Panhandle by mid- morning and push through the rest of the FA through the afternoon and early evening hours. This will lead to a strong gradient in daytime highs, with cooler temperatures in the 70s to 80s across our northwestern counties and much warmer temperatures in the 90s across our southeastern counties. However, confidence in daytime highs is low at this point given the possibility of the front slowing down and anticipated cloud cover through much of the afternoon. As for precipitation chances this afternoon, lift associated with the front along with subtropical moisture transporting in, we will begin to see the return of showers and thunderstorms by this afternoon. Additional support may also be granted by the shortwave translating through the Southern Plains, with flow becoming briefly northwesterly, we could see another round of precipitation form off the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico and track into the FA around midnight and linger through the overnight hours into early Saturday morning. Although the associated lift from this may be confined more to our north. Thanks to the CAA brought from the earlier front, overnight lows will be much cooler than previous nights, with lows ranging from the low 50s to the low 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Not much of a change to the extended to report this morning, with models continuing to back off on the influence of TS Lorena to the West Texas region through the weekend. This disturbance continues to spiral across Baja Mexico as seen on satellite imagery, but is now expected to remain off shore in the Pacific. Compared to previous runs, due to the system remaining off shore, the period of southwest flow aloft looks confined to Friday with a more northwesterly to westerly flow regime through the remainder of the weekend as a ridge amplifies across the western CONUS and the upper level trough continues to translate through the Great Lakes. Although we do not expect as much H3 to H7 moisture, surface winds will begin to veer out of the southeast through the weekend, driving in efficient moisture in from the Gulf. Dewpoints are progged in the 50s and 60s through the weekend with PWATS around and inch to 1.5". As a series of shortwaves riding down the eastern side of the ridge interacts with this moisture in place we will likely see periodic showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Sunday looks to be the best day for seeing beneficial rainfall with higher dewpoints and a more pronounced shortwave tracking through the northern Texas Panhandle. These periodic showers and thunderstorms will likely continue through early next week as disturbances continue to ripple through the region. As for temperatures, the cooler airmass is expected to remain in place through the weekend with lingering cloud cover, precipitation, and the easterly component to the wind. However, we will begin to see increased heights and thickness values by early next week as the ridge sets up to our west, which will begin to aid in a subtle warmup in temperatures back in the mid 80s to lower 90s by Monday. Most models then bring the ridge more directly overhead during the middle of the week with warmer and drier weather likely through the end of the extended. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF period. In the immediate term, LLWS will persist at CDS, then dissipate after sunrise with surface winds becoming more westerly during the morning hours. A cold front will work southward through the region today, bringing a northerly wind shift first to CDS by about midday, then LBB and PVW by this evening. There is a low chance of SHRA or some TS along the front, especially at CDS, but probability of this occurring is too low for TAF mention at this time. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...30