165
FXUS64 KLUB 171117
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
617 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 615 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

 - Isolated showers and storms will be possible through Thursday
   morning across portions of the Caprock and Rolling Plains.

 - Additional thunderstorms are forecast Thursday afternoon and
   evening across the Caprock, with locally heavy rain the
   primary threat.

 - Dry and hot weather is expected Friday through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

02Z upper air analysis depicts a compact shortwave trough digging
into the northern Great Plains, while the dampened, subtropical
ridge remains stretched across the central and southern half of the
Lower 48. The barotropic low rotating offshore Baja California
continues to meander poleward, and the 17/00Z objectively analyzed
UA charts and water-vapor imagery indicate that the 250 mb jet
streak rounding its eastern quadrant continues to steadily
intensify. This will, as mentioned in previous forecast(s), impart a
small contribution of baroclinity over the southern Rocky Mountains
as the low loses its barotropy and continue to reactivate the band
of monsoonal thunderstorms to the west of the CWA. High-level flow
was difluent over W TX, as per the 17/00Z UA charts, which has
provided the source of lift atop the uncapped airmass earlier this
afternoon, resulting in the formation of widely-scattered showers
and storms across portions of the Rolling Plains. Mid-level flow was
anemic, as is typical with subtropical ridges in the mid-summer, but
intensifies farther north in the northern Great Plains, with the base
of the trough delineated near the I-80 corridor. The low-level was
backed at about 15 kt, but will veer southwestward by sunrise as the
broadly difluent belt of 250 mb flow increases ahead of the jet
streak rounding the eastern quadrant of the barotropic low.

At the surface, the synoptic cold front has since moved into the far
northern TX PH, with its leading edge approaching DHT before bending
northeastward towards GUY and LBL. The attendant surface low
embedded within the convectively-reinforced front was located to the
south of GUY, but its pressure was weak, at around 1008 mb. The cold
front will continue to progress southward throughout the nighttime
hours, crossing into the far southern TX PH after 05Z/midnight CDT,
as its progression will continue to slow as it moves beneath the
center of the subtropical ridge. Light, southeasterly winds were
present area-wide, as the CWA remains within the moist sector and to
the east of the diffuse surface trough, which is still anchored
along the edge of the Mescalero Escarpment. Differential vertical
mixing was fairly substantial across the CWA, with the 60 degree
isodrosotherm delineated along the NM state line, with dewpoints
approaching 70 degrees near the 100th meridian.

Isolated showers and storms are forecast area-wide throughout the
remainder of the night and into tomorrow morning, and there are two
particular areas of interest with respect to convection tonight: the
gradually decaying complex of storms propagating southeastward along
the convectively-reinforced cold front, with outflow-related theta
deficits maintaining the southward progression of the front and
storms; and poleward-moving, WAA-induced showers associated with the
low-level jet, which will strengthen to around 35 kt and serve as
the source for lifting parcels to the LFC above the decoupling
boundary-layer. The forecast grids were adjusted earlier to account
for the late-afternoon storms in the Rolling Plains, but have since
been tweaked to focus the delineation for storms versus showers,
which is roughly along the HWY-114 and HWY-62 corridors prior to
sunrise. Showers and storms may be widely-scattered across the far
southern TX PH heading into the morning hours Thursday, and is where
the best chances for rain is tonight into tomorrow morning. Coverage
of showers and storms, particularly ahead of the cold front, will
wane as the low-level jet begins to veer before dawn.

The cold front will dissipate as it enters the Permian Basin late
tomorrow morning, with northerly winds quickly veering towards the
southeast. The airmass will undergo little change from this front as
CAA is essentially NIL in its wake beneath the subtropical ridge,
with highs expected to peak in the middle 90s area-wide. Full
insolation will result in mixing heights ascending to around 700 mb,
with a diurnally-driven cu field expected to bubble once again by
peak heating as the boundary-layer becomes uncapped. As the leading
edge of the 250 mb jet streak protrudes out of northern Mexico in
congruence with the opening of the barotropic low, in addition to
the superposition of the right-entrance region to the 250 mb jet
streak over eastern NM and the TX PH, widely-scattered-to-scattered,
monsoonal storms are forecast to drift southeastward into portions
of the Caprock tomorrow evening. Steering flow will be weak, and
storm motion will be reliant on propagation versus advection, with
the strong theta perturbations within the well-mixed sub-cloud layer
driving the southeastward propagation component. The best coverage
of storms will be across the far southwestern TX PH and western
South Plains before storms diminish in coverage from increasing
subsidence aloft and the loss of daytime heating. Locally heavy
rainfall will accompany the organized cores, with rain rates between
1-2 inches per hour expected given warm-cloud depths near 15 kft AGL
and tall, skinny CAPE between 1,500-2,000 J/kg; and PWATs near
1.25". Isolated instances of flash flooding will be the primary
hazard with storms. The severe weather threat is low otherwise.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

The subtropical high located over the Southeastern US will move west
into our region Friday morning and remain over the area through the
remainder of the forecast period, leading to hot and dry conditions
over the weekend.  A trough is located over the Pacific Northwest
and will move east. The circulation around a low located over Baja
California will funnel moisture into the desert Southwest, however
the bulk of the moisture will stay well west of our area. Latest
model runs show a return of moisture into our area early next
week. This moisture could lead to development of isolated
thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain near 100 degrees late weekend into early
next week. Low confidence in rain chances for early next week,
otherwise dry conditions expected.

Ford

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

VFR conditions will prevail. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
could affect the terminals this evening before 06Z. Briefly
reduced VIS and CIG due to heavy rainfall will be the primary
hazards.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...51