860
FXUS64 KLUB 140720
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
220 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 217 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

 - Warm and largely dry weather Today.

 - Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the Caprock through
   tonight.

 - Hot and mostly dry conditions through the weekend into next
   week, with an isolated thunderstorm or two possible on Sunday
   evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A line of storms will continue to weaken and move out of the area
overnight and give way to generally quiet conditions persisting
through the daytime hours today. Rising heights ahead of an upper
ridge combined with continued southerly will allow for warmer high
temperatures than yesterday, topping out in the mid-to-upper 90s. A
weak upper disturbance pivoting around the aforementioned ridge may
lead to some isolated showers and thunderstorms later this evening
into the overnight hours. HRRR currently remains the most agressive
with these, however most other models remain dry. Winds will
slightly shift SE late-day and thus bring possible increased
moisture advection. As such, some token PoPs have been retained in
the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Mostly quiet weather is expected through the next week. Upper
ridging will begin to move over the region tomorrow and, with the
exception of Tuesday, will dominate the pattern through late next
week. An upper shortwave trough will push into the West Coast by
late Monday, tracking eastward into the Rockies and Great Plains by
Tuesday. A lee surface low/trough will develop ahead of the upper
shortwave early Tuesday across Colorado and is progged to push into
the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles by Tuesday afternoon. This will
tighten the surface pressure gradient across the region and could
allow for a breezy to low end windy day. Given the confidence in the
pattern and the usual breezy conditions that follow, winds have been
increased by 5 knots from the NBM to 20 knots on average across the
FA. A "cold" front will follow behind the passage of the upper
shortwave Wednesday cooling afternoon highs to the low/upper 90s,
down from Tuesday`s highs of low to mid 100s. Upper ridging will
move back overhead by Thursday with the center of the upper high
being over the FA by Friday. While the overall forecast is dry
during this period, diurnal convection will not be out of the realm
of possibility as surface dewpoints remain in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Brief visibility reductions at KLBB due to blowing dust may occur
over the next few hours, otherwise VFR and generally light
southerly winds will continue. Isolated thunderstorms are possible
at all sites towards the very end of the current TAF period,
however confidence was not high enough to include in TAF at this
time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...19