852
FXUS64 KLUB 051720
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

 - Additional chances for thunderstorms this afternoon through
   Saturday night.

 - Drier and hotter weather Sunday through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A nicely wound mid and upper low was found about 150 miles south
of El Paso at noon and was keeping us locked in a wealth of
moisture with deep southerly flow. Even with a broad upper trough
axis arcing SW-NE atop the forecast area, ascent has been slow to
evolve thus far thanks to a pesky shield of cirriform clouds
curbing insolation. The back edge of these clouds was clearing
our western column of counties which should yield enough heating
and destabilization for afternoon storms that slowly expand
eastward behind the departing cirrus. A few pockets of clearing
well off the Caprock with widespread lower 70 dewpoints may also
fuel some storms. CAMs and coarser models remain at odds with
convective placement today due to such weak forcing, so opted to
align afternoon PoPs with satellite trends that favor precip for
our far southwest and eastern zones, with a lull in between.
Ample PWATs around of 1.2" to 1.5" with weak steering flow and
tall/narrow CAPE profiles supports more pulse storms with some
severe wind gusts, but moreso heavy rain and some localized
flooding.

As the upper low mobilizes northeast tonight and reaches the
Permian Basin by daybreak, ascent will tick higher downstream of
the low all the while instability wanes. Wouldn`t be surprised if
nocturnal storms prove more efficient than CAMs suggest given the
ample moisture, deeper ascent, and modest LLJ that could easily
offset weaker CAPEs, so have kept PoPs in the solid chance
category for many areas after midnight. With the low crawling into
the Rolling Plains during the day Saturday, PoPs will be kept
highest off the Caprock with residual chances clinging on
elsewhere courtesy of favorable daytime heating with PWATs holding
around 1.2".

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

The column slowly dries out Saturday night as subsidence deepens
following the departure of an upper low and its parent trough axis.
This will herald the transition to rising heights, thicknesses, and
unfortunately hotter temperatures as soon as Sunday as an upper high
relocates from the northeast gulf to the Texas coast by early
next week. With the high poised to our southeast early next week,
lee troughing looks sufficient for some breezy afternoons,
especially come Tuesday as a shortwave trough depresses the ridge
locally. The ridge then expands its grip over much of Texas for
the remainder of the week keeping us mostly high and dry. The one
exception to this dry theme would be the dryline which should camp
out in our area most days under weak WSW flow with strong heating
readily available. The NBM does draw into this potential for
Wednesday and Thursday, albeit these low PoPs look optimistic at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR and light winds outside of TS. Should see some slow-moving TS
develop this afternoon just about anywhere, but coverage appears too
limited to keep a mention in the TAFs. TS may cycle on/off through
the night.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93