044
FXUS64 KLUB 020441
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1041 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1033 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

 - Storms remain possible late tonight through Monday morning,
   mainly over the far southern Texas Panhandle and northern
   South Plains. Damaging winds are the main threat.

 - Breezy westerly winds Monday, with gusts up to 45 mph.

 - Generally cooler and dry the through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1033 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are currently tracking near the TX/NM
border as a deep upper level trough upstream continues to move
eastward. Everything generally remains on track from the previous
forecast in that damaging winds are the main threat with these
storms (as has verified over New Mexico), however a Tornado Watch
remains in effect for Parmer, Castro, and Briscoe counties until 2
AM CST. The trough axis will push through the area Monday,
however the good news will be that the dry line should be
completely east of the entire forecast area by the afternoon.
Thus, breezy westerly winds will still be the main story,
potentially gusting up to 45 mph in the afternoon. Winds will
gradually diminish Monday evening and turn northerly behind a
surface cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1033 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Weak ridging will build in behind the trough as it departs on
Tuesday. This will usher in cooler, dry air in behind it and highs
will be slightly below normal in the low-to-mid 60s on the Caprock
and near 70 off the Caprock. Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer
in a more zonal flow pattern aloft. Another fast moving upper low
will move over our area on Thursday. The latest ECMWF shows some
precipitation clipping the far southeastern Panhandle, however
uncertainty remains and it does not look to be anything significant
at this time. Otherwise cooler and dry conditions will round out the
work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1033 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are possible at all sites early Monday
morning. Gusty/erratic winds and reduced visibilities are possible
in any storms. CIGs will improve around sunrise with VFR
persisting for the remainder of the day. Winds will increase out
of the southwest Monday morning, before westerlies will peak by
afternoon. Gusts of 30-40 kts are possible before diminishing in
the evening.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...19