529
FXUS64 KLUB 272314
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
614 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

 - Warm conditions will continue through this afternoon.

 - Tropical moisture Tuesday through Wednesday will bring
   widespread, potentially heavy, rain chances and cooler
   temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Despite a light northerly winds, upper ridging will help keep us
warm today with highs climbing into the mid 80s to upper 90s. The
axis of the upper ridge will remain overhead through tonight before
moving east of the region Monday. This will still help to keep
Monday on the warm side with very similar high temps as today. Our
future storm system is now visible on WV imagery, being located just
off the Northwest Pacific Coast. This upper trough is expected to
transition to a closed low by this evening as it moves onshore. The
upper low is still on track to take a tour of California Monday,
being centered near the LA area by Monday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

The aforementioned upper low will begin to push eastward by early
Tuesday and move over the Desert Southwest through the day Tuesday.
The overall potential for heavy rainfall late Tuesday into Wednesday
is still there, but there still is much to be desired from model
consensus. Many models, including their ensembles, still bring heavy
rainfall into the FA by late Tuesday beginning around sunset. The
GFS and GDPS are the most aggressive with QPF. The ECMWF has come to
be the most pessimistic, at least as of the 00Z run. It is roughly 6
hours slower than the GFS with the travel speed of the upper low,
and pulls the upper low further north as it crosses New Mexico. The
path of the upper low will have a significant effect on the
potential for heavy rainfall, but this will take another day or two
to determine which path is more likely. The forecast will continue
to side with wetter guidance given the larger consensus.
Additionally, moisture will be very abundant given the influx of
both moisture from the Gulf and from the tropical systems in the
eastern Pacific. This will supply PWATs as high as 2+ inches, an
anomaly of at least +1 inches, and allow for efficient rain
production. We will continue to hold of on the issuance of a Flood
Watch until confidence grows. The upper low will stall over the
Southern Plains by late next week as an upper high builds over the
southeastern CONUS. This should allow for additional light rain
showers across the region. Models diverge greatly with the upper
pattern next weekend and beyond. The GFS builds a large ridge over
the western CONUS while the ECMWF has more zonal-like flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Light and variable winds are expected
through the TAF period. One model indicates patchy fog will impact
KCDS around sunrise Monday morning while others do not. With
predominately northeasterly winds, there is a chance for fog,
however confidence at the moment is low, therefore have left out
of TAF.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...10