Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
639 FXUS64 KLUB 281104 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 604 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 602 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, are possible this afternoon through evening as a cold front tracks through the region. - Precipitation chances continue Friday and through the weekend with the potential for heavy rain and flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 The main focus for the short term package is a cold front that is progged to push through the region this evening. Zonal flow aloft will veer to the northwest through the afternoon as upper ridging sets up over southwestern CONUS and northern Mexico and troughing has taken over eastern CONUS. This upper pattern will allow the return of subtropical moisture to the region. On the surface, southerly winds will veer to the west by the afternoon in response to a pre-frontal trough which is expected to dry out most of our western zones. Surface winds will continue to veer to the northeast this evening as the front tracks through the region. Westerly surface flow prevailing through the afternoon ahead of the front will allow temperatures to warm to the 90s for the entire region. Southern portions of the Rolling Plains could possibly reach triple digit highs. Convergence along the front will bring shower and thunderstorm chances beginning this afternoon and continue through the evening. As previously mentioned, western zones will dry out through the day due to the pre-frontal trough, therefore the greatest chances will be over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains. A few severe thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow evening with a good amount of upper level shear and CAPE values just under 1500 J/kg. We could also see periods of heavy rainfall with the possibility of flooding with PWAT values around 1.25 inches. Storm chances will continue overnight as the front continues to trek southwestward through the region. Storms will diminish early Friday morning as the front clears the region and stalls over Central Texas and southeastern New Mexico. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Upper ridging over the Desert Southwest and the upper troughing over northeastern CONUS will persist through Friday. A northeasterly jet streak between the two upper disturbances will set up right over the Texas Panhandle ushering in subtropical moisture. The storms from Thursday evening will diminish early Friday morning as the front has cleared the region and stalled over Central Texas. However, precipitation chances return Friday afternoon through the evening as northeasterly surface winds veer to the east by Friday afternoon. Sufficient moisture, upper ascent from the jet streak, and upslope surface flow will allow showers and thunderstorms to develop over higher terrain in eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and track into our region. Storms will be possible over western portions of the CWA Friday evening and expand eastward through the region overnight into Saturday. Severe threat will be low with storms Friday evening, however could expect a severe wind gust or two. Storms are expected to propagate fast, but periods of heavy rainfall with the potential for flooding will be possible. Precipitation chances continue overnight Friday and through the rest of the weekend. The upper ridging is expected to deamplify Saturday as the upper trough over northeastern CONUS will finally push eastward as an upper high tracking over Canada give the upper troughing a much needed push. Through this upper level shift, the northeasterly subtropical jet will remain overhead through the weekend. The moist jet streak and multiple embedded shortwaves tracking aloft will keep precipitation chances going through the weekend and possible through early next week. Similar set up as Friday is expected Saturday with showers and thunderstorms developing over higher terrain and tracking into our region. Heavy rainfall will be possible across the entire CWA Saturday evening through early Sunday morning with the potential for flooding with PWATs up to 2.25 inches. However, the extent and timing of storms on Saturday will be dependent on the environment following Friday evening storms and lingering boundaries. Current storm total QPF for the entire weekend indicates some areas may receive up to 3 inches. Precipitation chances will dwindle into early next week as the upper ridging expands across the Intermountain West and troughing once again takes over eastern CONUS cutting off the subtropical moisture as flow aloft veers to the north. Cooler air following the front and mostly cloudy skies preventing the full extent of diurnal heating will cool temperatures through early next week before gradually warming by mid-week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 South-southwest winds will switch to north-northeast later this afternoon into early evening with the passage of a cold front. TS a possibility mainly at KCDS as the front passes there, but confidence remains too low to mention in the TAF at this time. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...07