718
FXUS64 KLUB 062242
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
542 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 540 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

 - Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain ending this
   evening.

 - Hotter and mostly dry next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A mid-level low located near Lake Alan Henry at 11 AM is forecast
to scoot into northwest Oklahoma tonight ahead of upper ridging
and much warmer and drier conditions for Sunday. Until then, we`ll
be contending with a narrow band of mostly light rain along a
deformation axis NW of the low, and a more convectively unstable
environment downstream of the low in the Rolling Plains. The
latter area is of greater concern for localized flash flooding
this afternoon due to greater instability (SBCAPE nearing 1500
J/kg) and weak steering flow. Precip associated with the deformation
zone is forecast to dwindle from S-N as the low treks farther
north. Stronger NW flow on the backside of the departing low
later today could be enough to sustain storms moving SE from the
Sangre de Cristos. Chose to expand 20 PoPs this evening generally
west of I27 for this activity as it will be moving into a theta-e
axis before low-level instability shuts off toward midnight. Any
lingering convection off the Caprock should also end toward
midnight or shortly thereafter as the upper trough axis clears to
the east. Sunday sees much warmer thicknesses and sunshine return
ahead of a ridge axis atop New Mexico. Even with warmer temps
aloft, various soundings suggest convective temps are within reach
by late day within this otherwise unfavorable pattern for storms.
If storms do develop, coverage appears too sparse for any precip
mention at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Ridging shifts squarely overhead on Monday complete with some of the
hottest temps of the week (widespread highs near 100) before a
shortwave trough in SW flow flattens the ridge on Tuesday and cools
highs a handful of degrees. Of some interest to our counties
bordering the NM state line is a growing chance of late-day storms
from a favorable upslope regime in eastern NM underneath a swift
subtropical jet. Flatter mid/upper flow on Wednesday should
introduce a dryline to our area which has some potential to convect
with strong heating, although organized severe potential looks slim
owing to weak flow throughout much of the column. Global models
diverge by late week on position of a trough in the northern plains
and more importantly vort lobes rotating into the trough. This casts
doubt on protracted heat and generally dry conditions for Thursday
and Friday as the ECMWF and its ensembles are more bullish with a
cold front and precip by this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Isolated thunderstorms are possible at KCDS for the next few
hours, although confidence was not high enough to include in the
latest TAF. Otherwise, VFR and generally light southerly winds
will continue.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...19