200
FXUS64 KLUB 281112
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
612 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 607 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

 - Warm and dry Monday.

 - Rain likely early Tuesday through Thursday, potentially heavy
   at times. A Flood Watch is in effect for the far southwestern
   Texas Panhandle and portions of the South Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

An upper ridge will continue to have influence over the region for
much of the day Monday and conditions will be very similar to that
of Sunday. Cloud cover will increase through the afternoon, however
no precipitation is expected and highs will top out in the mid 80s
to mid 90s. The pattern will become much more active Monday night.
More details below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

An upper low will descend over Southern California through the day
Monday. As it gradually shifts south and eastward Monday night into
Tuesday, the already strong Pacific moisture fetch from
associated SW flow aloft will absorb the additional remnant
moisture from Hurricane Polo which will all be advected into our
vicinity. Although models are still coming into a consensus, the
general thinking remains the same from previous forecasts. Rain
should begin early Tuesday morning near the TX/NM border and
gradually track eastward through the day. Again model timing
varies, however heaviest rain is expected to overspread the area
at some point from Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning before a
dry slot builds in as the low occludes. Also of note is the
associated surface low positioned to the west on Tuesday combined
with a fairly strong low-level jet will bring breezy southerly
winds during the afternoon, potentially gusting up to 40 mph. A
trough moving over central Canada will push the upper low back due
southward Wednesday into Thursday and depending on the exact
track, further precipitation is possible along its backside
Thursday into Friday. All this to say, there remains much
uncertainty this week, but in a nutshell heavy rainfall and
localized flooding are possible (with slightly higher chances
generally on the Caprock). We will continue to monitor and update
the forecast as needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Mostly quiet this period, with southeasterly winds around 10
knots. Some fog is evident in surface obs and satellite imagery
across the Texas Panhandle, but don`t think it will reach KCDS.
An approaching system will result in lowering ceilings towards
the end of the period, perhaps approaching MVFR at KLBB/KPVW, but
for now kept all terminals VFR. Rain chances also ramp up after
about 09-12z Tues, so while the TAFs are dry for now that will
likely change with the next issuance.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for
TXZ021>023-027-028-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...24