021
FXUS64 KLUB 200539
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1239 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

 - A few thunderstorms continue across the region overnight,
   diminishing Sunday morning.

 - Additional storms are expected Sunday afternoon and evening
   mainly off the Caprock.

 - Much cooler temperatures and daily chances for showers and
   storms will continue Monday through most of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Ongoing weather this evening continues to overperform expectations
so we`ll not make this too long.  Broad southwesterly flow aloft is
noted across the south central states as an upper level low drifts
across SERN ID/WRN WY.  This feature is expected to weaken as it
moves into the northern plains by sunrise Monday.  This will leave
us in a zonal flow regime in the mid levels.  The evolution of this
evening`s (Saturday) activity will play into the potential evolution
of storms on Sunday.  The CAMs have really struggled this evening
whilst the GFS appears to have the better handle on the evolution
that we`ve seen so far.  That guidance shows a Pacific front pushing
in Sunday morning followed by a standard cold front easing in around
lunchtime.  Indications are, by late afternoon, we`ll see
thunderstorms  fire across the region, perhaps favoring our eastern
half.  Given forecast sounding, strong downburst potential will
exist along with at least some risk of sub-severe to possibly severe
hail.  At this point, we`ll probably intitate with 70mph winds and
quarter size hail.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

High pressure will build once again across northern Mexico on Monday
while another low comes ashore across California.  This will
increase monsoon moisture from late Monday peaking Wednesday
focusing a bit to our west, thence moving closer into the late week.
 This, in turn, will yield above average precipitation (storms)
activity for the week.  If you`re looking for sunny skies across
West Texas, this isn`t the week. The risk of the stronger downburst
days looks to diminish as the week progresses as LCLs sharply lower
with increased RH given the lower high temperatures.  In fact, we
have a number of days where highs may stick to the 70s across
portions of our area.  Granted, the guidance has been a bit
overzealous on cooling temperatures in the extended this fall, but
eventually, fall will take hold.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Lingering convection overnight should stay clear of all terminals,
with just an outside chance of thunder through sunrise mainly at
KLBB. Another round of TSRA is expected Sunday after 21z, but will
leave mention out of the TAFs at this time with most convective impacts
expected to remain to the south and east of the terminals. VFR
will otherwise prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...30