805
FXUS64 KLUB 290512
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1212 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1207 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

 - Heavy showers and thunderstorms remain expected mainly Tuesday
   afternoon through early Wednesday morning, with flooding
   possible especially near the TX/NM state line.

 - A Flood Watch is in effect for the SW TX Panhandle and
   northwestern portions of the South Plains.

 - A few severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon over much of
   the Caprock.

 - Generally drier and cooler weather is expected Thursday and
   beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to move northeastward
across the Rolling Plains as of 10 PM, with a few additional showers
and thunderstorms forming across the southern Rolling Plains and
portions of the southeastern South Plains. The first, farther north,
set of storms formed along a remnant outflow boundary. While it is
possible for the second set of storms to also form on a remnant
boundary, one cannot be easily detected. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms have developed across New Mexico and far West Texas,
well ahead of the approaching upper low. Rich moisture is evident on
WV imagery, including moisture that is being siphoned from Hurricane
Polo, currently making landfall across Baja California.

Most 00Z models are still in their infancy or have still yet to come
in, but little change is seen from previous runs from what data is
available in regards to heavy rain potential. New Mexico and the
western Texas Panhandle still look to get the brunt of they
heaviest, longer lasting rainfall. Much of the FA should still
receive beneficial rainfall through early Wednesday morning,
however. The aforementioned activity across New Mexico and far West
Texas is progged and expected to move into the FA before sunrise
this morning. Rainfall will likely be moderate at best given more
extensive upper lift will still be to the west. This will be
followed by a lull in precip for this afternoon before a more solid
line of heavier storms is expected during the early to mid evening
hours. Rainfall rates will likely be high given a fairly saturated
atmospheric column with PWATs approaching 2 inches. What should help
alleviate widespread flooding will be the lack of training storms and
a decent forward speed of the QLCS. This is not to say that flash
flooding will not be possible. A quick 1 to 2 inches of rain is very
likely, especially on the Caprock, with locally heavier amounts
possible. This could lead to flooding of roadways. The heaviest
rainfall is still progged for areas along the Texas/New Mexico state
line where the Flood Watch is currently in effect. Rainfall amounts
of 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts are still expected.

One factor that is still a worry for the forecast is a potential dry
slot. While there is plenty of dry air on WV imagery associated with
the upper low, moisture also seems to be expanding, especially as it
is siphoned from Hurricane Polo. Current thinking is dry slotting
should not be a significant as shown by the more pessimistic models.
Lift will be more than marginal, and at least low to mid level
moisture will be plentiful. The current ongoing storms also show
that models, CAM or otherwise, are somewhat struggling with
forecasting potential convection as none of the models foresaw this
convection. In addition to a heavy rain potential, there is also a
marginal risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening.
Especially given the moist nature of the system, concerns for hail
are very low. Wet microbursts will definitely be in play, and an
isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out as surface winds will be
slightly backed.

The gridded forecast temps for this coming afternoon seem rather
high given the expected thick cloud cover and rain potential,
especially high temps on the Caprock. They have been lowered
closer to MOS guidance with low to upper 70s expected. Areas off
the Caprock will likely be warmer as rain chances decrease across
that region and there will be potential for breaks in cloud cover.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The bulk of the heavy precipitation is expected to end by Wednesday
morning as a dry slot punches eastward on the southern end of the
upper low. Although some lingering scattered showers are a good bet
through much of Wednesday, additional rainfall totals will only be
light. Another window for severe storms will then open Wednesday
afternoon and evening, this time across the Rolling Plains along and
east of a dryline. This threat should concentrate mainly to our
east, but a few instances of large hail and damaging winds could
materialize on Wednesday over our eastern zones. For the rest of the
week, the forecast generally trends drier and cooler. There will be
some potential for a few showers late week mainly off the Caprock,
but our current expectation is for most locations to remain dry
Thursday and beyond. The more noticable change will be much cooler
temperatures with highs currently forecast in the 60s and 70s
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected this period,
with precip possible during the daytime hours, followed by a
brief lull and then another line spread west to east late in the
period. Ceiling reductions are likely this morning into the
afternoon at KLBB/KPVW, with MVFR favored but IFR possible.
Ceilings may improve to VFR briefly during the late
afternoon/evening before lowering again. To reduce TAF complexity,
maintained MVFR at KLBB/KPVW after 14z. SE winds will become
increasingly breezy today, with gusts approaching or exceeding 30
kts at times.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Wednesday
afternoon for TXZ021>023-027-028-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...24