185
FXUS64 KLUB 132301
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
601 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 600 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue through the work week, with a
  very gradual cooling trend anticipated.

- Daily storm chances exist through the upcoming week, favoring
  areas on the Caprock.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Remnant showers Sunday morning were more persistent than most
high-res models initially suggested, although the remaining
activity was weakening (with IR depicting warming cloud tops) as
of 17z/noon. In addition to the showers, ample cloud cover has
held temps cooler than anticipated this morning, with some
locations still in the upper 70s/low 80s as of 17z/noon. Dewpoints
were also 5-10 degrees higher than this time yesterday, currently
in the 60s areawide. As a result, the forecast highs were lowered
a few degrees across the central and northern portions of the FA,
but highs should still reach the mid/upper 90s on the Caprock
(and warmer off the Caprock). Isolated storms remain possible
across the northwestern fringes of the FA, but the main precip
axis will be shifted a bit west compared to yesterday.

Upper ridging remains in place across TX, with 500mb heights
around 594 dam. Tonight, an upper low over the Pacific NW will
shift east towards the northern Plains. As it does so, pressure
falls in the lee of the Rockies will tighten the sfc pressure
gradient resulting in breezy SW winds locally on Monday, sustained
at 15-20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph. This may lead to
locally elevated fire risk, although minimum RH values should stay
above 20%. Isolated precip chances are possible once again during
the evening near the TX/NM border and the far SW TX Panhandle,
but are higher west of our FA. Any storms that do form today or
Monday could produce sporadic strong wind gusts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

The mid-week synoptic pattern remains on track from previous
forecasts, with anomalous ridging over the SE CONUS, and upper
lows near the Hudson Bay as well as the Pacific NW. This pattern
will keep the monsoonal moisture plume focused across northwest
portions of the FA, and precipitable water (PWAT) values nearing
1.5" will be well above climatology (above the 95th percentile). A
southward moving cold front associated with the Hudson Bay sfc
low and a mid- level disturbance emanating from New Mexico will
support likely PoPs (60-80%) across NW portions of the FA Tues PM,
with chance PoPs (40- 50%) across much of the Caprock. Forecast
soundings depict less downdraft CAPE than previous days, which
could lower the strong wind gusts potential, although water-loaded
downdrafts may still be capable of sporadic strong winds.

Between Wed-Fri, the upper ridge gradually shifts back west,
reaching eastern OK/TX by Fri. That will result in subtle height
rises and shunt the monsoonal moisture axis a tad west, so while
daily storm chances remain, they are largely confined to areas
near the TX/NM border and the far SW TX Panhandle. Temps remain
above normal through the work week, although a gradual cooling
trend is anticipated with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s on the
Caprock by Fri, and the mid 90s off the Caprock.

For late week and the weekend, deterministic guidance has trended
several degrees warmer compared to previous runs. This trend is
not unique to the deterministic models either, with the model
blend exhibiting this same trend. This is due to a slower
evolution of yet another closed low over the Pacific NW. Previous
model runs had this wave emerging onto the central Plains by Fri,
pushing a cold front southward across W TX. This system is no
longer progged to reach the Plains by Fri, and its exact timing
over the weekend appears less certain. The cooling trend is still
forecast to continue into the weekend, with seasonable values
favored by Sun (mid 80s), but the potential for a more dramatic
cool down with below normal temps now looks less likely. While the
primary upper low is slower, occasional weak disturbances
emanating from NM within the SW flow regime will keep conditions
unsettled, with occasional precip chances Fri through the weekend.
The blend has near uniform PoPs area-wide, but based on the
synoptic setup I suspect we`ll eventually see a gradient in the
PoPs, with higher chances on the Caprock.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Breezy southerly winds will continue
through the overnight period before briefly decreasing early
Monday morning. Winds will slightly shift to the southwest and
increase Monday afternoon with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph possible.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...10