211
FXUS64 KLUB 190530
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1230 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1202 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

 - Hot temperatures today with many areas off the Caprock seeing
   highs near or just above 100 degrees.

 - Storm chances return for much of next week, but the threat for
   severe weather is currently low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

An expansive upper ridge axis stretching from FL along the Gulf
coast and over TX towards the Four Corners will remain the dominant
synoptic feature in the near term, with the broader upper air
pattern expected to be very similar today compared to yesterday. The
midlevel monsoonal moisture plume present within the southerly flow
aloft along the western edge of the ridge is expected to focus over
central and western NM with little signal for any significant
moistening of the airmass over West TX compared to the past couple
of days. Will consequently go with a dry forecast area-wide today,
but similar to yesterday, strong diurnal heating may be sufficient
to overcome the subsidence inversion and produce a very isolated
thundershower or two across our far western zones along the TX/NM
state line this afternoon. Otherwise, the continued ridging aloft
will bring another hot summer day as highs across the forecast area
will range from the upper 90s on the Caprock to near or just above
100 degrees east of the escarpment, which is about 3 to 6 degrees
above normal for this time of year. Relatively breezy conditions
will also continue especially over the southern TX Panhandle this
afternoon in response to deepening surface troughing over SE CO.
Tonight, dry conditions continue with mild lows in the upper 60s to
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Strong upper high pressure combined with SSW surface flow will allow
for triple-digit temperatures across portions of the area (mainly
off the Caprock) Sunday into early next week. While the hot
conditions will lead to a strong cap and inhibit widespread
thunderstorm development, long-range models continue to indicate
monsoonal moisture over New Mexico clipping western portions of the
CWA. This will likely not be severe, however training storms and
favorable moisture parameters may lead to locally heavy rainfall. A
series of stronger upper waves Tuesday and Wednesday may allow for
mositure to push closer to the I-27 corridor, however confidence
remains relatively low at this point. Drier condtions should rouund
out next week as a strong upper high develops over the Four Corners
region. Temperatures will slightly cool from earlier in the week,
but remain well into the 90s with no significant change in upper
heights or surface wind patterns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...51