584
FXUS64 KLUB 190707
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
207 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1142 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

 - Hot and dry conditions are expected tomorrow through Sunday.

 - Chances for monsoonal thunderstorms are forecast late Sunday
   through the middle of next week, with the best chances on the
   Caprock.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 900 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

01Z upper air analysis reveals a semi-progressive wave pattern over
the northern half of the U.S., with a subtropical ridge continuing
to amplify over the Desert Southwest. The CWA remains within the
inflection point of the amplifying ridge and the departing shortwave
trough pivoting over the Upper Midwest, and a small line of
thunderstorms continues to slowly back-build over the Upper Red
River Valley and into the far southeastern TX PH. Recent trends on
GOES-19 imagery and webcams have indicated that the diurnally-driven
cu field is beginning to evaporate, as it lacks vertical depth, with
the only prospect for severe storms stemming from the western edge
of the small line as it back-builds westward. The attendant severe
weather risk will diminish near 04Z/11 PM CDT for the southeastern
TX PH and the northern Rolling Plains.

At the surface, the quasi-stationary front was located to the south
of the CWA, and was demarcated along a line from HOB-SNK, keeping
the CWA within the fetch of easterly flow. This front will continue
to become increasingly diffuse and eventually dissipate beneath the
subtropical ridge, with surface winds veering poleward by sunrise
and oscillating southwestward by late morning. Cross-barrier flow
will remain amplified along the apex of the ridge, which will
maintain the leeward pressure falls and cause winds to back towards
the southeast by tomorrow afternoon while becoming breezy. High
temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer than today, due to the
geopotential height rises and deep boundary-layer mixing. High-based
cu will develop by mid-afternoon, but parcels will fail to ascend
past the LFC due the effects of dry air entrainment and no low-level
convergence. Breezy, southerly winds will remain intact throughout
the nighttime hours amidst muggy conditions area-wide.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Subtropical ridging will continue to shift over the southern Great
Plains this Friday and through the weekend. Its eastward progression
is forecast to be rather quick, as an amplified, positively-tilted
trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. Persistence forecasting was
applied Friday through Sunday, as leeward pressure falls will be
maintained by the intense jet streak arcing over the northern Rocky
Mountains and northern Great Plains. High temperatures are forecast
to peak in the middle-upper 90s each day, with southerly winds in
the 20-30 mph range even during the overnight hours. Prospects for
monsoonal thunderstorms remain intact late Sunday through the middle
of next week, as steering flow (700-300 mb mean wind) will veer
towards the southwest while advecting a plume of modified Pacific
moisture over the region. With the CWA remaining beneath the right
entrance-region to the 250 mb jet streak, diurnally-driven storms
are forecast each afternoon and evening Sunday through mid-week,
mainly across the Caprock Escarpment. The bulk of the vigorous
ascent will be displaced to the west and northwest of the CWA, with
much weaker cloud-layer flow situated over W TX. Such a synoptic
evolution would temper the severe weather risk and gear it towards a
locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding potential, the latter of which
is typical with a monsoonal thunderstorm pattern.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

VFR prevails for the TAF period. Easterly winds will veer towards
the south late tomorrow morning and become breezy. Winds will then
diminish by Thursday evening.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...09