133
FXUS64 KLUB 310520
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1220 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1212 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Scattered storms Friday evening into the overnight hours (30-60%
  chance), with gusty winds and locally heavy rain possible. More
  storms are possible on the Caprock Saturday (20-30% chance).

- Slightly cooler for the weekend (mid to upper 90s), then warmer
  next week (upper 90s to low 100s). Mostly dry conditions are
  expected Sunday into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The expected synoptic evolution is largely on track with previous
forecasts, with the main forecast challenge being the exact timing
and coverage of storms thru Fri night.

Thurs evening, the upper ridge was centered over New Mexico, while
a mid-level disturbance was emerging onto the central Plains.
Scattered storms were present across the OK/TX Panhandles (north
of I-40 as of 1020pm/0320z, moving WSW. A few gusts to around 60
mph were noted across WFO Amarillo`s coverage area earlier Thurs
evening. Several runs of the HRRR model have hinted at sporadic
convection reaching the far southern TX Panhandle overnight. Based
on this, expanded the slight chance (10-20%) precip mention to
include northern portions of our forecast area overnight.

Into Fri, a front will push in from the north, and could help kick
off showers/storms during the day. CAMs are inconsistent and
somewhat limited in precip coverage along the front. Instead, the
more notable chance for storms is in the form of an evening MCS
that develops over the higher terrain of NM and spills southeast,
driven by increasing NW flow aloft as the the upper high shifts
west. Updraft instability is expected to be meager across the
forecast area Fri PM (less than 1000 J/kg of CAPE), but a deep,
well-mixed PBL will result in high downdraft instability (around
1500 J/kg of DCAPE). Such values will be supportive of sporadic
wind gusts over 60 mph. Ensemble mean PWAT values are around 1.5"
(90th percentile). The NW flow and outflow-driven evolution should
keep storms fairly progressive, but nevertheless high-res models
have pockets of 1-3" of rain, which could lead to isolated
flooding. Storm chances are highest over the western South Plains
Friday evening (50-60%) and gradually decrease with eastward
extent, to just 20-30% across the eastern Rolling Plains.

Conditions remain hot on Fri despite the front, as 850mb temps are
only marginally cooler than previous days, still peaking at 30+
degC across much of the region. That will translate to highs in
the upper 90s/low 100s. However, conditions do trend cooler for
Sat, with 850mb temps between 25-30 degC and sfc highs in the
mid-90s. If the forecast for the next two days verifies, Saturday
would be the first day below 100 degrees in Childress since July
20th. Isolated storms are possible Sat PM across the western South
Plains, but chances are higher in NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1022 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Models depict the upper wave currently over the central Plains
moving towards the central Appalachians, cutting off from the main
flow, and retrograding. This will act to slow the broader pattern
evolution. Hot and primarily dry conditions remain the
expectation for next week, as the upper ridge becomes flattened
but keeps above normal heights in place over W TX. The ensemble
mean 500mb height forecast is generally between 592-596 dam next
week. Ensemble guidance continues to highlight a good chance
(50-80%) for daily high temperatures above 100 degrees off the
Caprock, with lower chances (10-30%) for reaching such values on
the Caprock. It remains to be seen if the ridge flattens enough
that disturbances rounding it track close enough to clip the
forecast area with precip. For now, the NBM keeps the forecast
area dry, with PoPs less than 10% each day Sunday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF period. Light
southerly winds will continue through the overnight period before
shifting to the southwest Friday afternoon. There is a small
chance for rain showers in the vicinity of KCDS early Friday
morning. As the chances of these showers impacting the terminal
are uncertain at the moment, have left out of TAF. A weak front is
expected to reach the region Friday afternoon. Winds will vary as
the front reaches each terminal before shifting to the north
behind the front. Scattered shower and thunderstorms are expected
to develop along the front. Another round of thunderstorms are
expected to develop across northeastern NM before expanding into
our forecast area. Both rounds thunderstorms are expected to
impact each terminal. Strong wind gusts, periods of heavy
rainfall and plenty of lighting will be possible with these
storms. These storms are expected to prevail through the evening
and possibly continue after midnight.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...10