792
FXUS64 KLUB 311716
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1216 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1216 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

 - A thunderstorm or two may develop this afternoon across the
   southwestern South Plains.

 - Isolated storms will be possible area-wide Monday afternoon.

 - Storm chances are forecast to return Wednesday and through the
   end of this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

In the mid/upper-levels, an amplifying, subtropical ridge was
analyzed over the Intermountain West, with a well-defined 250 mb
anticyclone that has since shifted southward over S TX. The latter
feature continues to deamplify as broadly cyclonic flow persists
over the eastern U.S., with the CWA beneath the right-entrance
region of the 250 mb jet streak. Mid-level flow was weak and veered
to the northwest, and will continue veering over the next 24 hours
as quasi-zonal jet streak at 250 mb translates eastward and the
subtropical ridge to the west expands. Convective cloud debris was
present, with shallow boundary-layer cu beginning to form at the top
of the post-frontal airmass. Between the passage of the cold front
and convective overturning beneath the increasing confluence aloft,
storm chances were wiped out for most of the CWA, with the exception
of the southwestern South Plains where an isolated storm or two will
be possible as decaying showers in eastern NM drift east and may be
able to root into the LFC as the airmass mixes out. Coverage of
storms will be limited, and the potential will wane after sunset as
the boundary-layer decouples. The surface pattern will become benign
otherwise, with light and variable winds expected beneath residual
anvil debris from storms farther west into NM. Some patchy fog may
form during the predawn hours Monday, as the airmass nears its
saturation point, but the potential for fog is too localized to
warrant an introduction into the official forecast at this time.

The primary change in this forecast compared to previous ones was to
introduce PoPs area-wide for Monday afternoon. As the subtropical
ridge continues to amplify over the Intermountain West, and the
broadly cyclonic flow evolves into a somewhat of a gyre-like state,
a well-defined, mid-level shortwave trough will dive southeastward
over the central Great Plains, with a series of shorter-wave
perturbations propagating southeastward along its upstream flank and
towards W TX. The boundary-layer will become well-mixed by the
afternoon hours, with full insolation boosting temperatures into the
upper 80s and lower 90s area-wide. Upon the arrival of the shortwave
impulse, isolated-to-widely-scattered, high-based showers and storms
are forecast to develop, with a brisk progression to the south. A
few rogue wind gusts in the 50 mph range will be possible given the
combination of the forward-speed of convection atop the well-mixed
boundary-layer, but the severe risk is limited otherwise. Due to the
uncertainty on where exactly convection develops, PoPs were added
area-wide through the evening hours Monday. Storm chances will wane
quickly following nocturnal stabilization of the airmass.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

The forecast for the extended period remains on track, with little
change necessitated with this package. Global NWP guidance continues
to indicate a highly amplified ridge breaking over far northern
Canada, which will induce an intense shortwave trough to dig into
the Great Lakes region and transition the cyclonic-gyre into a
longwave trough. Farther west, the subtropical ridge will be
maintain, with its amplitude modulated by another cyclonic gyre
rotating over the northeastern Pacific Ocean. The superposition of
these large-scale features will maintain the belt of northwesterly
flow over the CWA by mid-week, with geopotential height tendencies
remaining near neutrality. High temperatures will gradually climb
each afternoon through Wednesday, with prospects for storms forecast
to return late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a cold front
surges southward across the Great Plains before eventually slowing
down as it moves into and/or past the region. Highs will be a few
degrees cooler following the passage of this front, but not by much,
as the airmass over the CWA largely maintains barotropy. However, by
next weekend, global NWP guidance indicates that another cold front
will surge southward across the Great Plains as the train of intense
shortwave troughs continue to dig into the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes region. The combination of the late-week fronts beneath the
northwesterly flow aloft will, therefore, maintain storm chances
across most of the CWA through the end of next weekend.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

High-end MVFR CIGs remain at all terminals except PVW which is now
VFR. LBB and CDS are expected to give way to VFR by 19-20Z. VFR
conditions will prevail thereafter.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...51