751
FXUS64 KLUB 241116
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
616 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

 - Heat indices on Friday of 105-109 off the Caprock where a Heat
   Advisory continues.

 - Some strong to severe thunderstorm Friday afternoon and evening
   for the far southwest Texas Panhandle and nearby South Plains.

 - Drier and hotter next week with Heat Advisories likely off the
   Caprock.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Thunderstorms overperformed in coverage Thursday afternoon and
evening off the Caprock thanks to the arrival of richer dewpoints in
the upper 60s and lower 70s. Outflow leftover from these storms will
keep spreading onto the Caprock this evening ahead of muggy
southeast breezes that show no sign of drying out overnight, so
low temps Friday morning are looking very mild with upper 70s and
even some lower 80s. This moistening boundary layer combined with
a retreating upper high into western NM should allow for slightly
lower high temps for Friday, although muggier dewpoints off the
Caprock will breed high heat indices of 105 to 109, so a Heat
Advisory continues there from 1 PM until 9 PM.

Storms are expected to redevelop Friday afternoon and evening,
particularly along and near a surface trough forecast to be draped
from about Amarillo to Clovis by peak heating. Strong heating,
weak convergence along the surface trough, and a weak shortwave
in northwest flow should all be more than sufficient for scattered
storm development. The main question is how much southward movement
these storms undergo given only 10-15 knots of steering flow aloft.
Some CAMs remain more bullish with storms advancing south along
deeper outflows given multicells and segments as opposed to
singular storms, so PoPs were expanded south from the NBM by the
evening. Tall inverted-V profiles with DCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg
will favor downbursts, while slow storm motions open the door to
locally heavy rain. Overnight, a modest LLJ and any MCVs may
sustain some showers or storms on the Caprock that could linger
through daybreak Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

After some lingering precip Saturday morning, subtle height rises
unfold during the day as the upper high nudges east and atop
southern Colorado by the evening. This presents us with more
subsidence, yet we`ll retain low chances for additional afternoon
storms underneath a lingering band of mid-level moisture. This
elevated moist layer dries out on Sunday as the upper ridge
broadens, but high temps should only nudge a few degrees higher
than Saturday thanks to southeast flow at H7 that keeps a harsh
thermal ridge to our north where places like eastern Colorado and
western Kansas could see highs touch 110. As the upper high wobbles
south toward the Texas Panhandle on Monday and decays from 600
dam to 596 dam, our temps will slowly climb with Heat Advisories
a good bet for areas off the Caprock through at least midweek.
Models agree in the high retreating into New Mexico by Wednesday
which sadly is still too close to offer us any reprieve from the
triple-digit heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

VFR will prevail through this TAF period. After about 20z,
scattered TS are expected to develop mainly to the northwest of
KLBB and KPVW, then drift slowly southward through the evening
hours. Confidence in thunder or convective impacts at KLBB and
KCDS is too low for TAF mention at this time, with higher
probability of impact at KPVW. Strong downburst winds should be
expected near any convection today.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ024>026-031-032-037-038-042>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...30