902
FXUS64 KLUB 151742
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

 - Scattered thunderstorms developing later this afternoon on the
   Caprock before diminishing overnight.

 - Very warm and mostly dry Wednesday through Friday.

 - Turning unsettled this weekend into early next week with a
   legitimate cold front by Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Hopes remain high for some meaningful rain on the Caprock later
today into this evening before an upper high draws closer on
Wednesday and dries things out. Late-morning satellite imagery
could certainly look more dire, but at least revealed some thicker
mid-level clouds in our NW zones under the eastern footprint of
monsoonal moisture centered from southeast Arizona to the Corn
Belt. This cloud cover is proving more persistent in the far
southwest panhandle, so high temps there were lowered for today.

Otherwise, the stage is still set for scattered (locally numerous)
showers and storms later this afternoon and evening on the Caprock.
Storms are initially favored near a surface trough located from near
Amarillo to Friona to Hobbs, and this area may receive lift
assistance from differential heating along the aforementioned mid-
level cloud layer. Sadly, a cold front in the northwest TX Panhandle
is expected to lose steam this afternoon and fall short of our
northern counties. MLCAPEs upward of 2000 J/kg with only 5-10 knots
of deep layer shear will support upright cores that pose a risk for
wet downbursts and localized flooding. Should outflows merge
constructively as shown by most CAMs, we expect upscale growth
into clusters into early evening before outflows encounter
increasingly hostile CIN off the Caprock. This results in a
tighter PoP gradient with likelies favored generally along and west
of a Silverton to Plainview to Levelland line. How much of an
impact the nocturnal LLJ will have on any additional convection
overnight is less clear as most CAMs have now shifted toward a
drier theme.

Heights tick higher for Wednesday as the upper high draws closer
from the Deep South which advects drier mid-level air our way while
shunting monsoonal moisture to the west. Interestingly, thicknesses
remain largely unchanged or even dip lower as H7 temps decline, so
high temps are stacking up similar to today under full sun.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Dry and very warm conditions roll carry into Friday as a broad
~599 dam H5 sets up over AR into northeast TX. Not until Friday
night do we see this high faltering which allows monsoonal
moisture to creep into our westernmost counties complete with some
rain chances. The arrival of a improved SW flow aloft on Saturday
in the base of a broad trough cresting the Rockies spells
improved rain chances, especially on the Caprock, where the axis
of monsoonal moisture overlaps with a SW-NE surface trough. This
pattern supports a regional precip event with heavy rain at times
given PWAT anomalies reaching +0.5 to +0.8" and a window for
training convection. The pattern remains unsettled and turns
cooler for Sunday following a bona fide cold front with reasonably
moist E-NE winds in the lowest levels. With southwest flow
lingering aloft through early next week, additional chances for
precip remain intact despite mixed ensemble signals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Thunderstorms are possible for KPVW and KLBB late this afternoon
into the evening. Slowed the timing of the PROB30 thunder groups at
both terminals, starting at KPVW at 22z and KLBB at 00z. Any storms
are expected to weaken by 06z. Outside of storms, VFR conditions and
southerly winds persist through the period, with wind speeds
approaching 15 kts during the daytime hours.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...24