Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
096 FXUS64 KLUB 152312 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 512 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 512 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 - Not quite as warm as recent days from Sunday through Wednesday. - Turning cooler with increasing shower chances Wednesday night into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1059 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Warm weather will continue tonight and Sunday as upper level ridging remains overhead. However, temperatures Sunday will come down from the record-breaking warmth of today and yesterday as a weak cold front moves into the forecast area late today and into the evening hours. Surface winds will back to southeast Sunday afternoon, but the easterly upslope component and a decrease in heights/thicknesses on average about ten degrees cooler than this afternoon`s highs. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1059 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 A transition in the upper pattern across the western half of the CONUS will bring a change in weather for the South Plains region in the week ahead. More in the way of significant short wave energy is expected to dive into the western CONUS, eventually carving out a longer wave trough over. The initial low is rather deep and located off the coast of southern California and will bring heavy rain to western parts of the Desert Southwest before ejecting quickly northeastward across the Four Corners on Sunday before arriving over the northern Plains late Monday. Surface winds across the forecast area will veer to west and southwest and become breezy to windy on Monday as a result, continuing to hold warmer than normal temperatures in across the forecast area. The next shortwave trough to dive down the Pacific coast will do so on Monday into Tuesday before turning eastward and then northeastward onto the central High Plains. However, the models continue to prog a sharper and more elongated trough with this system. Despite the core of the trough staying well to our north, enough energy will be associated with its southern extension to result in what should be a fairly stout period of deepening lift over the southern High Plains Wednesday night into early Tuesday. The big question for possible precipitation development is will there be enough moisture available to lift and then precipitate. South-southwesterly mid level flow over the eastern half of Texas should produce good moisture advection there, but farther to the west that remains more questionable. Certainly, the western end of that increased mid level (and to a lesser extent lower level) could end up as far west as the Rolling Plains while the system itself might bring some of its own moisture, especially if the system ends up slower to open up than the models have been suggesting. Will continue to run with NBM PoPs that did increase slightly in that Wednesday-Thursday period, although for the reasons mentioned above and the possibility of further run-to-run model changes, but will reserve a measure of skepticism at this point. Finally, how the mid/upper pattern evolves behind this midweek trough is quite muddied as yet another trough dives into the western CONUS. However, its handling by the models is erratic and the downstream effects over the southern Plains runs from shortwave ridging to a broad western CONUS trough. Time will tell. Overall, the drying trend heading into next weekend along with cooler temperatures per the NBM is accepted at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 512 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 VFR is expected through the TAF period following a weak cold frontal passage this afternoon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...01