Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
293 FXUS64 KLUB 241719 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1119 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1116 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 - Dry overall this week with mostly seasonal temperatures. - Cooler and potentially more unsettled weather Saturday through Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1116 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Quiet weather is expected tonight and Tuesday as dry west-northwest flow spreads overhead in the wake of the trough that brought yesterday`s rainfall. Light winds and clear skies overnight should allow for temperatures to fall fairly efficiently toward dew point temperatures. Models and MOS are not showing any potential for fog toward sunrise, but the set up suggests that there is a small possibility of patchy fog developing. Will keep mention out at this time, but it could be something to watch as the evening progresses. A cold front will move through the forecast area Wednesday. Cold advection will mostly be delayed into Tuesday night with high temperatures only showing a modest 3-5 degree decrease from today`s highs. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1116 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Models are in good agreement in the Tuesday through Friday time frame. Tuesday`s cold front and the cold advection behind it will result in a cool day Wednesday with highs running about 4-8 degrees below normal. Surface high pressure will move eastward to just east of the forecast area by end of day with a return to a southerly component will support NBM and MOS, especially across the west where the southerly winds will be more pronounced. Temperatures then trend warmer, peaking Friday, as heights and thicknesses increase with a deamplifying ridge moving eastward across the Desert Southwest. Models and the forecast are muddled for Saturday through Monday as there is quite a bit of variance on how shortwave energy is being handled out west. The initial diving of such energy into the Great Basin early in the weekend will provide height and surface pressure falls across the southern High Plains, and in response, increasing southerly low level flow, low to mid level warm advection, and potential shower chances Saturday, although these will most likely be focused to the east of the forecast area as moisture advection will be more limited this far to the west. A limited area of slight chance PoPs in the southeast and far east of the forecast area still looks fine given the uncertainty in the western extent of the moisture advection. The real model divergence begins Sunday when the the GFS keeps mid/upper energy well back to the west near the SoCal coast and likely dry and deep southwesterly flow over the forecast area or low-amplitude short wave ridging per the ECMWF as energy is slower and farther east to dig into the southwestern CONUS. These differences come more into play on Monday with the more open and progressive upper pattern of the ECMWF (and secondarily, the Canadian) favoring a drier solution while the GFS and its opening closed low supports a wetter and cooler solution. This forecaster does not have a favored solution at this time, and the broad 20-30 percent PoPs, including a snow mention for some areas Sunday night into Monday per the NBM will be accepted for now but with a lot of opportunity for changes between now and then. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period with, at this time, a very small chance for fog development toward sunrise Tuesday. West- northwest winds near 15 kts today will diminish with sunset, becoming light and mainly from the north to northwest with a slight uptick in wind speeds late in the period as a cold front enters the forecast area. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...07