Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
058 FXUS64 KLUB 301125 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 525 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 - Well below average temperatures remain expected today. - Temperatures gradually warming into mid-week, before falling again Thursday with possible precipitation chances. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Wind speeds have started to decrease across the region as surface high pressure moves over the Central Plains. Winds should decrease to around 5 to 10 mph across the FA while slowly becoming more easterly just after sunrise. This will continue CAA as well as help with stratus development. This stratus is what will keep today`s highs on the cold side. The NAM has warmed a few degrees for today`s highs but is still well below NBM. Forecasted highs will be lowered from the NBM as not much warming will be expected as long as cloud cover remains. Cloud cover is expected to remain through the overnight hours except across zones along the Texas/New Mexico line where skies should partially clear out. Surface winds will respond to surface troughing across northern New Mexico/southern Colorado tonight ahead of another upper shortwave trough. This will bring winds to a more southeasterly direction. Though overnight lows will still be cold, teens and 20s area wide, cloud cover along with 10 mph surface winds will help keep temperatures from falling further. The 00Z NAM develops light QPF across the Rolling Plains tonight, but this will most likely be, at best, thick stratus. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 The Arctic airmass responsible for the 20+ degree below average temperatures will begin to shift eastward by Monday. However, an upper trough moving over the Rockies will lead to another surface cold front which will pass through the area during the afternoon/evening. Surface winds will switch to be out of the NW and prevent highs from getting out of the 40s in most locations. Lows Tuesday morning in particular will be very cold, falling well into the teens over the far SW Panhandle and northern South Plains. A more zonal flow pattern aloft will develop Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday and temperatures will gradually rebound to near normal, although the latter will see a sharp gradient from north to south as another cold front approaches with low 50s over the far southern Panhandle and mid 60s across the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains. The front will completely move through Thursday and highs will again fall into the 40s under mostly cloudy skies. While last night the GFS was the farthest west with QPF, the latest run shows it now completely east of the CWA. However, now other models are less progressive with the progression of the associated upper trough and thus rain chances have been retained in the latest forecast. Nonetheless the synoptic pattern does not suggest a deluge at this point and NBM is probably too bullish, however as always this far out things can change. An active 500 mb pattern looks to continue Friday into next weekend, however near average temperatures and generally dry conditions at the surface are expected at this time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 VFR stratus will overspread LBB and PVW shortly before reaching CDS closer to noon. Confidence is increasing that this layer will descend to MVFR later this afternoon at LBB and PVW and remain so through tonight. Expect mostly light winds. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...93