Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
012 FXUS64 KLUB 200529 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1129 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1126 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 - Rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected to continue overnight through Thursday evening, locally heavy rainfall will be possible at times. - Storms overnight and Thursday afternoon may become marginally severe with main threats being quarter sized hail and wind gusts to 60 mph. - Cooler and wetter conditions return this weekend, with highest chances for rainfall Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1126 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 The upper level shortwave trough and associated closed low, which is currently positioned across SOCAL via WV imagery, is expected to continue its trek eastward through the overnight period. As a result, the FA will begin to see modest large scale ascent begin to increase in addition to the ramping up of the 850mb LLJ. Due to the ample moisture in place, primarily across the eastern half of the FA with Tds in the upper 50s to lower 60s, coverage of ongoing showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase this evening through the overnight hours. MUCAPE values on the order of 1200J/kg-1600 J/kg, steep mid-level LR around 7C/km, and bulk shear magnitudes of 50 knots across the aforementioned area supports an environment capable of strong to severe thunderstorms. Elongated hodographs, analyzed by forecast sounding and 00Z soundings at MAF and AMA, suggest that isolated supercells will be possible although that threat really begins to deteriorate after midnight. However, cannot be completely ruled out across the southeastern third of the FA. Towards daybreak coverage in storms is expected to become more widespread, as in addition to the already established moisture in place, we see the northward expansion of dewpoints as strong moist south-southeasterly flow ahead of the dryline (parked near the TX/NM state line) draws in plentiful moisture from the gulf. Dewpoints are progged in the 50s and 60s across much of the area, highest across areas east of the I-27 corridor. Nonetheless, higher than what we saw Wednesday and will play a factor in more widespread precipitation through the afternoon. Large scale ascent increasing, with PV anomalies wrapping around the base of the system will enhance upper level lift across the region, while a modest H5 jet streak associated with the parent trough provides additional large scale ascent and notable diffluence for on and off shower and thunderstorms throughout the day. By the evening, westerly surface winds west of the surface low will sharpen the previously mentioned dryline across the area, as it advances east. This boundary of low-level convergence will provide mesoscale lift across the region and serve as a focus point for a potential linear convective system to develop by the late afternoon/evening. The overall severe threat remains low, given the environment will likely be overworked with training storms and lingering cloud cover. However, due to the fact that PWATs are well above the 90th percentile normal around 1.5" in combination with training showers and thunderstorms across areas that have already seen beneficial rainfall from previous storms, will lead to a threat of heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns. Precipitation chances begin to decrease towards the late evening hours, as the Pacific front overtakes the dryline and we begin to lose large scale ascent with the shortwave ejecting northeast into the Southern Plains. Expect activity to clear around or just before midnight with a mostly clear night expected Thursday into Friday morning. Cooler conditions are expected Thursday, with on and of showers and thunderstorms in addition to lingering cloud cover limiting diurnal heating. Expect highs closer to seasonal normals in the 60s across much of the area. Overnight, a slightly cooler airmass associated with the Pacific front in combination with light winds and clear skies will lead to max radiational cooling. Lows are expected to be several degrees cooler from what we have seen earlier in the week in the mid 30s to upper 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1126 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Dry and cooler weather is expected to start the extended period, as the shortwave trough that brought us rainfall mid-week, becomes an open wave across the Central Plains and eventually absorbed into the main flow across the northern CONUS. Off to the west, a stronger secondary upper level low over the PacNW will dive into the SOCAL region by the end of the week. As a result, we will see the continuation of moist southwest flow aloft across the region which should work to establish at least some mid to upper level moisture. Meanwhile at the surface, moist return flow sets up by as early as late Friday into early Saturday morning as a surface low develops across eastern NM. Models seem to be doing better with each run on the overall progression of the system with most models depicting the upper level low dipping into Baja California late Saturday before ejecting northeast into the Four Corners region Sunday afternoon and into the TX/OK panhandle region by Monday morning. Although stronger large scale ascent does not arrive until Sunday afternoon, with the core of the H5 jet moving directly overhead, moist isentropic ascent at the 305K surface combined with a tongue of higher theta-e values stretching into portions of the Rolling Plains should generate enough lift for showers and thunderstorms as early as late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. However, the best timeframe for precipitation looks to be Sunday when diffluence aloft spreads across the region with the approaching low in addition the FA within the left exit region of the H5 jet streak. This synoptic pattern does look to favor the potential for heavy rainfall, although similar to what we saw earlier this week, models seem to be slightly over doing moisture return at this point. Overall at this point in time, the area that seems to have the best chance for seeing locally heavy rainfall will be south and east of the area where the better bulk of moisture resides. Similar to the previous discussion, NBM pops for Monday remain bullish, with most guidance placing the center of this system across the CO/KS state line which would likely dry-slot us from any wrap around moisture rotating along the backside of the low. For now will keep NBM PoPs, given the fact this is still 5 days out, but will likely need to be adjusted if PoPs for this time period remain bullish. Friday will be a few degrees warmer as clear skies prevail and westerly surface flow develops in response to a surface low translating through the Southern Plains. As this low shifts east, a FROPA trailing the upper level trough translating through the northern CONUS, looks to dive southward entering the region late Friday into early Saturday morning. Cooler air will therefore enter the region, with post frontal northerly winds established across the FA. Therefore, expect highs a few degrees cooler in the 60s area- wide in addition to the potential for increased mid to high level clouds during peak heating hours. For Sunday and Monday of next week, temperatures will remain near seasonal normals thanks to the chance of precipitation and lingering cloud cover through much of the day with highs in the 60s continuing. Our eyes are set on a shot of cooler arctic air by mid-week, with ensembles hinting at seasonably cool highs Wednesday and Thursday of next week in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 A quiet period is expected for much of the night with redevelopment of showers and possibly some thunderstorms expected back toward the New Mexico state line late tonight, spreading northeastward through the morning with lingering showers and MVFR ceilings through the afternoon before one final line of showers with possible thunder sweeps eastward across the area toward early Thursday evening. Wind speeds will increase from the south late morning through afternoon with 15-20 kts sustained becoming commonplace. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...07