Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
137 FXUS64 KLUB 021747 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1247 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Slight chance of storms Wednesday evening. Generally warm and dry otherwise through Thursday. - Precipitation chances return Friday evening through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Quiet conditions are expected today in a northwest flow aloft west a broad upper trough. A weak front will lead to the subtle veering of winds from north to northeast. Despite this, high temperatures will remain near average, ranging form the upper 80s to low 90s. Surface winds will diminish overnight under surface high pressure, with lows falling to either side of 60. Winds will switch to light southwesterlies on Wednesday allowing for widespread low-to-mid 90s across the entire region. Another weak front will approach from the northwest by the evening. Combined with a weak upper wave and low- level jet, there should be enough forcing to bring at least some isolated showers and thunderstorms to portions of the area and mentionable PoPs have been added to the latest forecast. The exact timing and evolution of the front remains somewhat uncertain, however highest chances look to occur over the far SE Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Temperatures Thursday will quickly rebound despite the overnight FROPA. Southwesterly surface winds will redevelop during the daytime hours with relatively weak high and low pressures. With 500mb heights near 588 Dm, this should be the warmest day of the week with highs approaching the triple-digits over the southern Rolling Plains. The forecast becomes both more active and uncertain into the weekend. Tropical Storm Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane off the west coast of Baja California and track northward. The current GFS deterministic keeps it strengthened for much longer with a large swath of precipitation merging with a cold front and overspreading the entire area late Saturday into Sunday. The GFS ensemble along with the ECMWF deterministic/ensemble along with most of the Grand Ensemble clusters indicate a more pessimistic solution, weakening Lorena and showing QPF much later persisting into early next week. These are the most likely solutions at this time, although NBM PoPs have been retained in the latest forecast given the continued uncertainty. In any case, temperatures will significantly drop in the wake of the front and fall even further (possibly 60s for highs) if the GFS ends up being correct. Stay tuned for further details with regards to the potentially heavy rainfall. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 VFR conditions will persist throughout this TAF cycle. There is a slight risk of thunderstorms moving in from the northwest late this evening. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...SRC