323
FXUS64 KLUB 251925
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
225 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 224 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

 - Scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue west of I27
   through Friday with drier and warmer weather to the east of
   I27.

 - Drier and warmer conditions this weekend.

 - More widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive
   early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

This evening through tomorrow the FA will find itself sandwiched
between a mid level and surface trough to the west and a mid level
and surface high pressure system to the east. In this position a
stream of monsoonal moisture will continue to be ushered from ELP to
PUB and northeastward under southwesterly surface flow. The lack of
strong synoptic lift to the west and subsidence to the east will
limited how expansive our moisture can become keeping all areas east
of I27 dry. A few weak disturbances in the main flow will contribute
to convection west of I27 through at least tomorrow night. In
general PoPs for this period remain capped between 15%-20%. With
surface CAPE values nearing 1000 J/kg a storm or two may produce
lightning and strong wind gusts, but overall the severe threat
remains low.

Tomorrow during the day there will be a lull in the precip with
redevelopment occurring by late afternoon. This time however,
coverage will stretch past I27 and into the Rolling Plains with
mainly scattered showers.

In the Rolling Plains subsidence and lack of moisture will support
another two mostly sunny days with solar insolation at its max. High
temperatures will peak in the mid 90s. Tonight continued light winds
and mostly clear conditions will lead to lows falling into the upper
60s to mid 70s on the Caprock and mid to upper 70s off the Caprock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Current water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to depict a
similar synoptic setup to what we have seen over the last several
days; with an axis of monsoonal moisture advecting northward within
the southwest flow aloft as an upper high continues to dominate over
the southeastern US while a near stationary trough remains fixated
across the western CONUS. This pattern will likely remain intact for
the start of the extended, with the center of the upper ridge moving
slightly eastward which will also allow the axis of moisture to also
shift with it. Given this, we will likely see the eastward expansion
of PoPs to include much of the FA Thursday and Friday afternoons. By
Friday evening the upper level ridge will begin to flatten while the
upper level trough to our east becomes absorbed into the main flow.
Thereafter, upper level ridging will remain in place over much of
the southern US with two areas of high pressure dominating over the
Desert Southwest and Gulf States regions as an upper level trough
glides through the Great Lakes region this weekend into early next
week. As a result drier conditions are expected through the
weekend, although there is a non-zero chance for precipitation
given the upslope component to the wind each afternoon. It is
possible we see higher terrain driven convection across eastern NM
try to move into at least our western column of counties during
the late afternoon, although flow aloft looks to remain rather
weak. Ensembles continue to hint at this pattern bringing renewed
rain chances to the area as monsoonal moisture becomes trapped
underneath the upper level ridge. Although confidence in overall
precipitation is uncertain, given the overall lack of forcing for
ascent, subtle perturbations tracking through the region may
provide enough support for isolated to scattered showers. The
overall severe threat also remains low, with the main cause of
concern at this point being heavy rainfall, given the long-skinny
CAPE profiles on forecast soundings along with PWATs around 1.5"
across the area. As for temperatures through the extended,
increased thickness values across the region in combination with
the southerly component to the wind will help aid in a gradual
warming trend each afternoon across the FA. One caveat to this
will be how cloud cover lingers, primarily across the western half
of the FA, in which we could see "cooler" daytime highs in the
mid to upper 80s while areas across the eastern half see highs in
the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

VFR conditions will continue today into tonight. Iso to sct
SHRA is possible at KLBB and KPVW largely after 00Z. Main impact
with the SHRA will be gusty winds. Have included a TEMPO at KPVW
and KLBB from 22Z to 02Z for potentially SHRA impacts. Winds
outside of any SHRA will be 10-15 kts from the S/SW.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...28